John McCain was the “My Turn” candidate that time as was Bob Dole before and frankly, as was Hillary.
I think a lot will have to do with how the next dem candidate gets out there and campaigns.
Obama worked his butt off and attended every county fair and fish fry to win in Iowa. He did the same throughout the campaign.
Hillary on the other hand, they hardly saw her. Notice her “rallies” with celebrities like Beyoncé, were a joke. While those for Bernie Sanders and Trump had lines of people wanting to come and listen.
So again, you don’t think Hillary’s loss had something to do with her being a poor candidate and running a bad campaign?
I think it will boil down to who the Dems put up to run, if Trump goes for two. There will still be radio silence in this household about it.
Possibly, but Hillary still got 66 million votes, roughly the same number Obama got in 2012. And she beat Sanders in the primary 17 million to 13 million.
So turnout wasn’t that much lower than was expected, it is just demographics. The white working class moved pretty far to the right, giving them an advantage in various midwestern and northeastern states.
If the answer you’re looking for is ‘Hillary’, I’m well aware of it since I’ve had arguments with people who claim her vote for the Iraq war doesn’t count as support for the Iraq war and that I’m awful for holding it against her or asserting that anyone could hold it against her and must have voted for Trump if I even dare to think that way. Iraq wasn’t really an issue in 2016 so I don’t think it specifically handicapped her the way it did Kerry vs Bush, but it definitely meant that if you want the US to try to avoid expensive, deadly wars she was not someone to put in charge of foreign policy.
McCain wasn’t “awful,” but the formula/equation was never going to produce a McCain victory.
McCain = old, white guy who represents the establishment and the GOP after 8 years of unpopular Bush
Obama = new, fresh, agent of change, potentially first black (history-making) president
There’s no way McCain wins with that equation. It’s remarkable, in fact, that he only lost by 7 percentage points.
The confused conclusion Mr. Drake wants to draw has been rebutted before.
It’s taking longer than we thought indeed! 
For those who can’t imagine Trump winning in 2020, I think you are blinded by current events. It doesn’t matter what Trump does, as long as the following remains true he will be a likely winner:
““Trump sees us,” his supporters would tell me, everywhere we stopped. “You don’t.”"
By KATY TURSEPT. 9, 2017 Sunday review in the New York Times
Ms Tursept says she was one of the first main-stream journalists to start covering Trump full-time during the campaign.
She found that because his supporters believe in Trump, not Trump’s policies but Trump, what he does and what he says isn’t important. Another quote:
"I once asked a man heading into a rally why he supported Donald Trump.
“Because he is going to build a wall,” the man said.
“What if he doesn’t?” I countered.
“I trust his judgment,” the man said."
Trump will be successful until the day after his supporters stop supporting him. I believe that will happen. When is completely up in the air. I hope it is before 2020, but no one knows.
The Democrats, or the Republicans, could field a candidate who would wipe the floor with Trump and his supporters, but they have to come up with someone the a significant fraction (say equal to the 36% that trusts Trump) of the public trusts and likes. That is a very short list right now. And unfortunately the number of current politicians on that list is, within rounding error, zero.
No argument . . . except to point out that this is a John Madden-esque truism. (“The only way this team is gonna win is by getting some points up on the board!”)
The truly amusing thing about all the wishes that Trump supporters will ditch him when his promises don’t come to fruition is that whilst the speakers believe the supporters will come to their senses and select instead of Trump a Hillary, or whatever Democrat is shoved up, or a nice sensible normal GOP candidate like Cruz or Ryan…
…actually they will go more intense and seek out someone more extreme, someone who can achieve what they want.
I believe this too - the next candidate to win them will have to be a “Trump lied to you; he said he’d do this or do that but didn’t - I, on the other hand, really WILL build the wall” candidate.
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I didn’t read the whole thread because, well, just because. SSDD. However, I’m surprised to learn that there are still people who underestimate Trump’s chances. According to the media outlets, the polls, the pundits, the internet intelligencia, Trump could not win in 2016. Trump had no chance what-so-ever to beat Hillary. Trump would never be POTUS. Blah, blah, blah, yada, yada, yada.
And then Trump won. In spite of the odds.
We certainly were surprised that Trump won in 2016. No doubt about it.
It remains a shockingly sad commentary on the state of the American electorate.
I will no predict his chances in 2020 (and remain hopeful he’s gone before then). I just don’t understand people anymore. I admit it. It’s incomprehensible to me. If Trump is reelected, I’ll probably give up following politics forever.
I think it will also depend upon the economy. If its doing well, he will get re-elected.
Bonus points if he can deal with North Korea.