The Trump Administration: A Clusterfuck in the Making

[asahi]

If we believe the polls, what they’re suggesting right now is that:

• Trump’s base still loves him and wants him to be re-elected.

• Swing voters or right-leaners in the center who voted for him may be having some buyer’s remorse.

• Those who have buyer’s remorse don’t want him re-elected

• But they don’t want him impeached before the next election.

Thus, it seems that there’s at least a 50/50 chance, and maybe better than that, that Trump could be defeated in the next election if the Democrats don’t go too far to the left and pick a candidate that centrist voters would accept (assuming also that Bernie Bros don’t sit at home and suck their thumbs in protest).

House Dems can still investigate the hell out of Trump, and they will, impeachment or not. I think one of the outlets today referred to Pelosi’s approach as “Impeachment Lite” which seems accurate and appropriate for the time being.

[JohnT]

Again, arguments about “Trump’s base” are completely missing the point as the “base” is literally defined as people who still support Trump:

On Monday, I support Trump. I’m part of his “base”.

Tuesday, something happens. Whatever, doesn’t matter. I no longer support him.

Wednesday, Asahi comes to the SDMB and says “We can’t do shit as long as his base supports him.” I come back with “I supported him Monday, but now I don’t.”

Question: Am I part of the base on Wednesday?

Question: If so, is this not indicative of his base shrinking?

Question: If not, isn’t arguments appealing to/about “the base” literally self-defeating?

[rocking_chair]

@Euphonious_Polemic

Meh.

Call me when it’s over 60% disapproval. I will not get excited until then.

The Trumpsters will not abandon him, even when he kills a puppy with a hammer on live TV. And I’m pretty sure that’s coming soon.

enter john wick stage left.

[Red_Wiggler]

I keep hearing the fear that impeaching Forrest will rally support to him. Where could we go to find such a person – one who wasn’t planning to vote for him but will do otherwise if Donald is impeached? I’d like to hear the thought processes of that person.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

@Zakalwe

And yet:

Americans feel good about economy and give Trump credit — CBS News poll

sigh

All of those people are wrong twice.

[Snowboarder_Bo]

@JohnT

Again, arguments about “Trump’s base” are completely missing the point as the “base” is literally defined as people who still support Trump:

No; you’re wrong. Trump’s base is defined as “people who still support the president no matter what”. In your hypothetical, you were never a part of Trump’s base because you were able to change your mind; Trump’s base can’t or won’t change theirs. That is what makes them “Trump’s base”.

[JohnT]

LOL. I appreciate you destroying Asahi’s argument for me. As well as proving my point.

Seriously, you did. Because if these people can’t be convinced, why the fuck do people argue that we need to wait until they’re convinced?

[enipla]

@Crotalus

I think asahi has explicitly mentioned camps for Trump supporters. I don’t DesertDog has written anything like that.

Many of us hold out hope that a sizable minority of the deplorables might someday soon see the light and repent of the serious mistake they made in voting for the dotard.

Trumps idiots will never admit that they where wrong. That’s the very nature of the con mans game. They think they are in on it and will think they made the correct choice even as they lose their jobs and homes.

They best we can hope for is that they don’t participate in elections. Or society in general.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@JohnT

Question: Am I part of the base on Wednesday?

No, since you’ve clearly debased yourself.

[slumtrimpet]

@Great_Antibob

I want to believe Pelosi is slow playing but play too slow and it’s all for naught.

It’s not unlike Watergate. People and the Republican Congress were against impeachment. Until suddenly they weren’t (and even then, there were several who were against it through the bitter end).

Whatever people say, the case is being built meticulously and solidly. If that’s too slow for the people who voted the Dems into control of the House, that’s bad on them. It’s a sign they’re not sufficiently intelligent or rational about things that actually matter. This isn’t sports. It’s also not “Mr Smith Goes to Washington”. Time isn’t going to be called with a clear winner decided. There’s not going to be a climactic denunciation with justice prevailing and credits rolling after all loose ends are tied up. It’s real life and real life is slow, sloppy, and rarely are all loose ends tied up in a bow. If a slow steady march rather than a quick, sharp snap is sufficient for people to lose enthusiasm in their newly elected House, our representative system of government is already DOA.

Bolding mine

IMO the US government became DOA on 2016/11/8.

BUT, to continue the analogy, there is a chance that an application of a defibrillator might create a resurrection.
Fair Rarity said it above:

I don’t know if the Dems fully appreciate that they’re in charge in the House based on a massive wave of enthusiasm. If it appears they’re being conservative and playing towards the swing and moderate voters, they’re going to lose the more strident wing.

The electoral enthusiasm generated by Bernie, AOC, Ilhan Omar and the CPC is (in my opinion) the only hope the Democrats have of regaining control (resurrecting) the US system of government. The waffling, hand-waving , pandering to corporate interests and the “swing voters” (whatever the fuck those are) they’ve indulged in for the past 30 years is what gave us 2016/11/8.

btw, Claiming that ‘Bernie bros’ stayed home and sucked their thumbs and gave the election to the Donald is as offensive as calling his supporters ‘deplorables’ (even if they are, as is he).

And in the meantime, while the waffling etc continues, the current Republican overlords are destroying anything and everything the voters that gave the Democrats control of the House in 2018 believe in.

[Aspenglow]

@JohnT

<snip>

Because if these people can’t be convinced, why the fuck do people argue that we need to wait until they’re convinced?

I don’t think Pelosi is waiting for them to be convinced, because like you, she doesn’t believe they can be convinced. The Soft Middle, however…

If Pelosi holds the line, refrains from going forward with formal articles of impeachment but continues to chip away at those moderate wishy-washies who voted for Obama and then Trump, Democrats win. We’ll continue to see Trump’s support sag, painful 0.1% by painful 0.1%. If the number gets low enough, McConnell will withdraw his support from Trump and impeachment happens, no sweat. Pelosi wins the game of Chicken.

She believes the path to chipping away is to continue to demonstrate that the Democrats are carefully and thoughtfully moving toward impeachment as a matter of law and constitutional duty, not for partisan reasons, while simultaneously passing legislation that most Americans view favorably, yet the Senate refuses to take up for a vote.

Right now, fewer than 13% of her caucus are active supporters of impeachment. 53% of Americans do not want impeachment proceedings – yet. (Pay particular attention to the figures noted for independent voters in that article.) 73% of Americans want to hear Mueller testify. What do those numbers tell you? What they tell me is, the Soft Middle is open to being persuaded, but they are not there at the moment. (Amazing, I know.)

Pelosi knows that if she moves for formal articles of impeachment too soon, Trump, McConnell, the Russians and Fox “News” will immediately brand it as a purely partisan action. With their records of past success, I can understand why she is reluctant to open that Pandora’s Box. The minute she does it, she loses control over the process and the narrative.

I don’t think we can use either Watergate or Whitewater as a guide to what will happen in today’s political climate. Too many things have changed. Trump is no Clinton, not even a Nixon – but Nixon didn’t have Fox or the Russians. What Pelosi is looking for is rock solid assurance that if she moves to impeach, she is not going to alienate and lose the Soft Middle. Continued successes in the courts are persuasive to them, as is Must See Tee Vee testimony. Particularly Mueller’s.

Trump loses credibility by the day. The Democrats’ efforts to reveal the extent of his depravity, both personal and financial, are only beginning to pay off. I’m willing to give it a little time – and I say this as someone who has supported impeachment since the day the bastard strolled into the Oval Office. It has been a painful slog just getting to this point. But as I heard one House Representative say yesterday, “I don’t just want him impeached. I want him gone.” If the Republican party is substantially destroyed as a result, so much, much the better.

[naita]

@Aspenglow

Right now, fewer than 13% of her caucus are active supporters of impeachment. 53% of Americans do not want impeachment proceedings – yet. (Pay particular attention to the figures noted for independent voters in that article.) 73% of Americans want to hear Mueller testify. What do those numbers tell you? What they tell me is, the Soft Middle is open to being persuaded, but they are not there at the moment. (Amazing, I know.)

But what about active Tweeters and forum posters! Why don’t our opinions outweigh the clueless majorities?

[ThelmaLou]

@JohnT

Again, arguments about “Trump’s base” are completely missing the point as the “base” is literally defined as people who still support Trump:

On Monday, I support Trump. I’m part of his “base”.

Tuesday, something happens. Whatever, doesn’t matter. I no longer support him.

Wednesday, Asahi comes to the SDMB and says “We can’t do shit as long as his base supports him.” I come back with “I supported him Monday, but now I don’t.”

Question: Am I part of the base on Wednesday?

Question: If so, is this not indicative of his base shrinking?

Question: If not, isn’t arguments appealing to/about “the base” literally self-defeating?

Okay, the question I’m asking is, “What, if anything, could come to light about thump that would REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE CONSIDERED TO BE HIS BASE?” or “What, if anything, could come to light about thump that would bring his approval rating down to, say, 10 percent?”

JohnT, you know I love you, but you’re being a teensy bit pedantic about the definition/usage of “base.” Consider this virtually crossposted to the other relevant thread where you crossposted.

ETA:

@JohnT

…why the fuck do people argue that we need to wait until they’re convinced?

I don’t know who is saying this, but it’s not me. We don’t need to wait for anything.

[Johnny_L.A]

@Shagunathor

CA25 is over the mountains N of LA, so Palmdale, Lancaster, etc. Voting record there swings back and forth.

Just to make the county clear, Lancaster and Palmdale are in Los Angeles County.

I went to the ‘progressive’ high school. It’s sad that so many of my classmates are Trump supporters.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@ThelmaLou

Okay, the question I’m asking is, “What, if anything, could come to light about thump that would REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE CONSIDERED TO BE HIS BASE?” or “What, if anything, could come to light about thump that would bring his approval rating down to, say, 10 percent?”

Answer:

Absolutely nothing. At all. 10 percent approval rating is a fever dream.

I can say, with no exaggeration, that Trump’s support would not drop below 20% if he gave away Alaska to the Russians in exchange for being peed on by a hooker, and then ordered the bombing of rival hotel chains so he could make more money.

There are far, far too many people who are a combination of painfully stupid, insanely partisan, or so disconnected with reality that they are barely able to function. And these people have strong opinions, usually supporting Trump.

[ThelmaLou]

@Euphonious_Polemic

Answer:

Absolutely nothing. At all. 10 percent approval rating is a fever dream.

I can say, with no exaggeration, that Trump’s support would not drop below 20% if he gave away Alaska to the Russians in exchange for being peed on by a hooker, and then ordered the bombing of rival hotel chains so he could make more money.

Okay, I’ll rephrase: what would it take to make his approval rating drop to 20 percent?

There are far, far too many people who are a combination of painfully stupid, insanely partisan, or so disconnected with reality that they are barely able to function. And these people have strong opinions, usually supporting Trump.

No argument there.

[Aspenglow]

@naita

But what about active Tweeters and forum posters! Why don’t our opinions outweigh the clueless majorities?

I know!! What a world, what a world.

[Rick_Kitchen]

@Shagunathor

CA25 is over the mountains N of LA, so Palmdale, Lancaster, etc. Voting record there swings back and forth.

CA45 is Orange County.

Oh, right, I was thinking of Katie Porter.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@ThelmaLou

Okay, I’ll rephrase: what would it take to make his approval rating drop to 20 percent?

Trump calls for massive gun control, and making abortions freely available and funded by the federal government. Following this, Trump defects to Russia, and tweets that his supporters are a bunch of spineless pussies and he suckered them.

Then his support would go down to about 25%.

• Some folks would know nothing about this news, because they are isolated idiots, who have limited connection with reality

• Some folks would blame Obama/Hillary/Democrats

• Some folks would call it a “smart business move” for Trump to go to Russia

• Some folks would say Trump is “playing 5 dimensional chess, and we’ll soon see his brilliant plan”.

[Procrustus]

@Euphonious_Polemic

Trump calls for massive gun control, and making abortions freely available and funded by the federal government. Following this, Trump defects to Russia, and tweets that his supporters are a bunch of spineless pussies and he suckered them.

Then his support would go down to about 25%.

I agree with this. And you can add the old favorite , “Hillary would have been worse.”