The Trump Impeachment Inquiry

He will set a record for White Out use.

I expect a nice house on the island of St Helena wouldn’t set the budget back too much

There’s already a nice house on the island of Rikers that would work fine.

He could start a new brand:

White House White Out[sup]TM[/sup].

  • when less is the best

As long as it isn’t Elba. Folks get away from there to easily.

The Democratic base is going to be very disappointed to find out that their leaders quietly hold the opinion that what goes around, comes around.

Trump could be convicted in New York – and, then, there probably would be a jury in Oklahoma or Kansas that could be convinced Elizabeth Warren once broke a law in one of their states.

I hope the DJT loses the election, leaves the White House without a physical battle, and then flees to one of his golf clubs in the UAE (no extradition treaty with U.S.) for fear that folks like yourself will get their way. But when, as it likely, after one, or two, terms, Trump insteads makes himself a regular on talk radio, there isn’t going to be any way to stop him more harmful to democracy than letting him spew.

The concern is not the damage Trump would do to democracy after he leaves office. The concern is the damage done to democracy when people see that the president can flagrantly break the law and not be punished for it.

Oh, bullshit. Nobody in the Dem leadership is worried about law prof Warren having outstanding crimes in fucking Oklahoma.

And there is the difference. Democrats expect their politicians to obey the law. Republicans see the law as something to avoid getting caught breaking.

Read Three Felonies a Day. There are so many laws that it is almost impossible for a ordinary person to obey they all, much less a President who is frequently making difficult decisions that White House lawyers have to rule on. Almost all Presidents break the law, and whether it is flagrant is seen through political eyes. Lots of people think that Bill Clinton and Nixon got away with flagrant violations and without being jailed, and, well, I just don’t see it damaged anything. I admit that point is moot.

Millions of Republicans are already convinced that Warren’s whole career is based on fraud. They are wrong, but they are convinced. Millions of others aren’t convinced yet, but will be by Trump’s advertising blitz (this time he’s raised lots of money to pay for them). If the statute of limitations is up for some supposed misdeed, they will find something else. Remember that, in some states, the judges are elected in partisan elections (Alabama, Illinois, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, North Carolina). In others (plus the federal systems) they are political appointees.

Trump has already damaged U.S. democracy some. If defeated in Nov. 2020, he will damage it a lot more by declaring the results a fraud and resisting them (just as he will damage it a lot more if he wins). The need will then be to break the cycle, not ramp it up so the next rotation is worse.

Does impeachment take effect immediately if passed by the Senate? In other words, will Trump still have a chance to throw out a bunch of pardons?

We really need a constitutional amendment that changes how pardons work. The idea that Trump can pardon everyone involved with his (alleged) crimes is repugnant. Or even if Trump is impeached, that Pence can just throw out a bunch of pardons like they’re candy. It’s not like he’s going to be elected president. I’m not sure he’d even run.

Probably, but they set the punishment.

Whether it would include disqualification to run again is an open question. I think they would.

Almost certainly, yes. Just do it the day, or the hour, before. In theory, DJT could be misled into thinking he was going to be acquitted, and then convicted. This would go with the theory about Trump being an idiot. Think it if you want.

Agreed.

The presidential Republic is a questionable form of government which has greatly damaged many countries that tried it (for a start, read about history books on Argentina and Brazil). Even a conservative like MacArthur had enough sense to impose parliamentary democracy on Japan. Nowadays the U.S. constitution is looked on as some kind of ideal. It is not.

Read a biography. Pence’ longs for the presidency. And he’s more popular than Trump. Unless there’s a real economic collapse, Pence would be the clear favorite to win in Nov. 2020. And he’d help the GOP keep the Senate. I’m sure most GOP Senators would love to see Pence replace Trump. It’s just a question of whether they would risk the ire of Trump supporters.

Where are you seeing that Pence is anywhere close to popular? They don’t even like Pence in Indiana.

Up until recently, Pence was sitting with even approve/disapprove numbers and a remarkably high “never heard of him” for a sitting VP. If he comes out of this unmuddied, he would certainly be well placed to be the standard bearer next election.

I’d welcome that. It would be way better than going up against someone strong.

Republican House rep Francis Rooney appears to be open to impeachment: https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/i-didnt-take-this-job-to-keep-it-gop-rep-rooney-hints-hes-open-to-impeachment/2019/10/18/3958e684-f1d0-11e9-b648-76bcf86eb67e_story.html

We’ll see if it’s the first (or maybe 2nd or 3rd? I’m not sure) of many.

Right now, Trump is minus 14.6% Favorable/Unfavorable in the RealClearPolitics.com average, and Pence is just minus 7.8. I think the spread is almost always at least that big.

Yes, that means Pence is unpopular. But Pelosi and Schumer having polling averages that are even a bit worse.

Pence’s popularity is likely held down by his boss being unpopular. If out from under Trump, he’d get a bounce. IMHO.

I think the instant that Roberts bangs his gavel after the vote it’s over and they have to round up Pence to swear him in. Or better yet, Pelosi. Any pardons written after the vote would have no legal standing.

I’m not sure that this would be better. If both Pence and Trump were impeached at the same time, the right would never accept that it wasn’t a leftist government takeover.

Not disagreeing with your thinking here at all. One note though, Pelosi may be getting a bump from all this. The last Economist/Yougov poll had her at only -3 on the approve/disapprove.