I think Sinaptics’s scenario was Pence running after Trump was impeached and removed. If that were the landscape, there’s no way he wouldn’t be very very wounded in a presidential contest following those events. Think of it: the only President in history removed from office, and Pence was the right-hand man. The (R) brand would be diminished for years, and he’d be wounded by association with this fiasco of an administration.
If Trump were merely voted out in 2020 and Pence ran in 2024, none of this applies and Pence would stand or fall on his own. Trump would have somewhere between Carter and Ford levels of esteem.
Wouldn’t you know it, just today they announced that Rikers Island prison will soon close.
As prime New York real estate, I won’t be surprised if part of it becomes a Trump housing development. So, your suggestion might come true, but not in the way we all would hope!
Will this be the first administration in history to end with impeachment and removal from office? 6 months ago, I’d have said no. I’m not so sure that I still feel that way, anymore. Support seems to be eroding daily, and he still can’t see what he did wrong. I could see him being defiant to the end.
But at least his impeachment would be the highest-rated and watched of all time.
My odds as of today: 90% chance of impeachment. 35% chance of conviction by the Senate.
It just remains to be seen what impact that has on the presidential race (I think it hurts - Trump is toast) and on those Republican senators who have to justify their vote. My dream is that the blue wave covers the Senate next year.
Hey, no one told me we had *elves *to handle this stuff!
Seriously, I guess I’m just dreaming that any consequences can be enforced? Breaking laws is no different than breaking norms because there is no enforcement for either.:mad:
Republicans will try to impeach the next Democrat over a parking ticket. We know that. See the birther CT. We must understand that the GOP is struggling on it’s last breath. The only way for them to survive is to reinvent themselves.
We must hold the rule of law. A truly despotic moronic treasonous President or other official must go. When your house is on fire, you don’t worry about the smoke it creates.
If we don’t rid our country of Trump, and his entire administration, our entire American experiment is done. Trump needs to be removed. Not with malice or opinions, but with the rule of law.
To PhillyGuy, I would only add that if Republicans could actually accomplish jailing their opponents, they’d have already done it to Hillary Clinton, Andrew McCabe, James Comey, Pete Strzok, Lisa Page, James Clapper, John Brennan and a virtually endless list of others, during the period of time when they controlled all levers of power in the White House and Congress. They couldn’t, because there is a predicate event to arrest: Probable cause that a crime has been committed.
I’ll allow that Bill Barr is working at a feverish rate to pursue illegitimate arrests in his Quixotic quest to rewrite history re the origins of the Russia investigation, but there is significant push-back by sane people against what he’s doing. I expect Barr to shortly endure more scrutiny of his perverse actions and motives.
enipla is right. If we abandon our foundational principle that we are a nation of laws and no man (or woman) is above them, then justice requires for those who break the law to be prosecuted for their misdeeds. Trump is a seething, writhing mass of illegality. To ignore this truth would be… criminal.
My understanding of Phillyguy’s point is that we should not prosecute Trump for the crimes that he has committed, because if we do, then the republicans will lie and fabricate in order to frame democrats.
The problem with this logic is that the republicans have been doing that for years now, so it’s not really a threat. OTOH, they like to claim that democratic prosecution of republican crimes is just retaliation for their failed attempts. There are still republicans that consider Jacob Wohl to be a reliable source, and that someone like Robert Mueller has no more credibility than their hatchetman.
If there are democrats out there committing crimes, (and I’m sure that some do) by all means, prosecute them. I don’t want to be represented by criminals. But don’t threaten to prosecute criminals as some sort of political theater.
That was my understanding of his point as well and thought my response spoke to it. Likely I was unclear.
We are in complete agreement about prosecuting anyone who commits crimes, and not threatening or actually attempting to prosecute individuals without evidence – as Bill Barr is presently attempting to do.
Andrew McCabe came perilously close to being arrested but for the sanity of a grand jury that declined to recommend prosecution. (I think. Barr refuses to release the findings of the grand jury – but McCabe was not indicted, so the deduction is that the grand jury said, “Nope.”)
Barr appears to be committing criminal acts right and left by obstructing lawful prosecutions for which there is actual evidence and actively attempting to prosecute individuals with none. He is bad, bad news. I hope it is Barr himself who soon ends up in the pokey.
Many will be watching a set of dates ranging from November 8 of this year to July 17 of next: the filing deadlines for primary races.
Once a Republican gets past that date, he or she can discuss Trump without fear of being primaried.
Granted, July of next year is a long way off—but several of the states with the most impressive electoral-vote counts will reach their filing deadlines relatively soon: Illinois (20 electoral votes) on December 2; California (55) on December 6; Texas (38) on December 9; Ohio (18) on December 18. Ten states, altogether, have filing deadlines in November, December, or January.
This could make a difference to any trial in the Senate, if the “impeachment vote by Thanksgiving” plan works out. Because the threat of being primaried will be gone for a fair number of Republicans, there could be quite a few who might feel emboldened to say out loud what they have, reportedly, been saying behind closed doors.
deadlines: State and federal candidate filing deadlines for 2020 - Ballotpedia
electoral votes: Distribution of Electoral Votes | National Archives
I’ll just note that, of those four states, all four Senators from Illinois (Durbin, Duckworth) and California (Feinstein, Harris) are Democrats, as is one from Ohio (Brown).
Of course, all four of those states have a number of GOP House members.
Yes, the early-deadline states are short on GOP Senators. But even House Republicans, speaking out, could have an effect on the climate around the Senate trial vote.
Of course if Pelosi has the vote by Thanksgiving, this ‘deadline’ issue would give McConnell a strong incentive to have the trial take place at 3am on the day after the House vote; have it last one hour; then take his vote. Done and dusted, and Trump Vindicated! (&@$#^#)
Thanksgiving is at the end of the month this year (the 28th). The last day the House is in session is the 21st.* The Senate is in session on the 22nd** and could do the entire trial and vote that day, if Mitch were of a mind to. That would largely eliminate ‘deadline-passed-so-non-Trump-fans-can-speak-out’ as a factor for Republicans of both houses of Congress. That’s probably McConnell’s preference.
So I’m hoping that Pelosi might hold off until after Thanksgiving. The House is in session December 3 through the 12***; if they voted on the 12th that would give McConnell the 13th (when the Senate is last in session in December) to hold his trial-and-vote. But those dates would permit a few Republicans to speak out—and the whole thing would still have taken place before 2020 dawns, as the Democrats have said they intend.
Using the primary filing dates for the 23 Republican Senators:
6 - opponents must file Nov-Feb
6 - opponents must file by March 15
4 - opponents must file by March 31
7 - opponents must file April-July
So, if the Senate votes on the Ides of March, 12 Senators are safe from an opponent filing because of their vote. (Of course, someone could file in anticipation)
Using primary election dates, 9 are safe after 19 May - 7 more by 30 June.
Hmm, yes, “file in anticipation.” No doubt Trump’s people will try to make that happen. Of course they might not be able to find candidates who are even vaguely-plausible (not that that would stop them).
But the mere fact that Trump has to worry about these dates should be dispiriting to all his enablers. (I hope.) The ‘best President in history’ branding suffers a bit from these facts, doesn’t it?
President Trump will be impeached by the Democratic-run House by Christmas December 25; but acquitted by the Senate in a trial probably by February-March 2020 like Clinton in 1998-1999.
Trump and his supporters get energized by the impeachment in Spring 2020; it is whether or not the GOP decides to get rid of Trump and Pence and put someone “clean” like Romney, Nikki Haley, or Mike Braun of Indiana as the GOP 2020 replacement.
The whole thing is that after the Clinton acquittal in Feb. 1999, Clinton should have resigned and allowed a President Gore; Gore probably would have had a head start and would have won in 2000.
