Nobody knew getting impeached could be so complicated 
I don’t think The Donald has one nanoparticle of clear self-awareness. Or much clear awareness of anything else, come to think of it. He is in the bubble.
There is another option: that the Pubbies realize (belatedly) that 2018 will be an unmitigated disaster as a referendum on Trump. And, after all, he is not really a Republican… The Prime Directive of the incumbent is to remain an incumbent.
Leverage: money “If you resist, we will investigate every dime you ever got, and keep you in court until we can fine your sorry ass into penury. You can bail now and stay rich, or you can take your chances.”
And, of course, as soon as the ink is dry on his resignation, do it anyway. Its the Trump way…
I think people far overestimate the importance of money to Trump. IMHO his main motivation is to be right and win and thwart his foes and have things his way, not money. To this day there are still people convinced that Trump ran for president to enrich himself, which has to be the most convoluted and difficult get-rich tactic ever.
It certainly has the potential to serve that purpose, but that’s not the reason it was created.
It was created to prop up the power of slave states by giving them a disproportionate electoral voice.
It all depends on what the perspective for the conversation is.
Let’s take your analogy.
On a message board devoted to coping with cancer for families, it would indeed be horrible to stomp on families’ hopes like that.
But on a message board devoted to factual discussion of cancer treatments and efficacy thereof, it would not be out of line in the slightest. In fact, here on this board, imagine someone who entered GD to say, “My dad passed away last year, and I’ve been miserable, but great news! I have found a medium, a woman who actually trained with both John Brown and Sylvia Edwards, and I’ve had a chance to talk to Dad again! He’s at peace and wants us to be happy. He also said he saw his own funeral and was touched at everyone’s speeches. Does anyone have any questions?”
How long before someone offered up a bit of skepticism along with sympathy?
In other words, here, and especially in fact-based GD and Elections, I don’t agree that the board’s mission is correctly reflected in messages of hope taht are not grounded in fact.
And of course, while I agree that Trump is the worst President in my living memory thus far in his term, I don’t remotely agree that the nation is being dismantled and sold to the highest bidder.
Seriously, “overestimate the importance of money to Trump”…? The same Trump who famously sued over anything put in an article or book that implied his net worth was less than he said it was?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/21/news/companies/donald_trump/
Oh, Trump cares about money. And if you don’t understand the ways in which the Presidency is making him boatloads of it, there are plenty of explanations out there with which you can inform yourself. This recent run-down in The Atlantic is thorough and well-sourced, for example:
**
That sounds like a pride/ego thing, not a money thing. “You said I’m poorer than I am, and made me look bad” - rather than actually being about the dollars and cents.
What difference would that make to his drive to acquire money? Whether he wants it to spend or wants it to inspire envy and deference from others, he’s still just as intent on grabbing it.
I disagree that my analogy was quite that far out.
There are “miraculous” cancer remissions. It does happen. It is not something that is impossible, but it is something to hope for.
Sometimes, and to fit the analogy, the remission isn’t even miraculous, in that it cannot be explained, but it is miraculous in that it was very unlikely.
There was a very real path to having a sane republican as our president, rather than Trump. It just required that people outside of our control take that path.
We could encourage it, and we could even hope for it, but it is not nearly as impossible as talking to the dead.
As it was in fact a factual possibility that the escorts could have done their duty to their country and put someone else in charge, and as I said before, Pence is an improvement over trump (wrong, but wrong in normal ways), so it’s not like the people on the left were actually hoping that the electoral college go ahead and pick clinton (though that would have been nice), but just pick someone other than trump.
I mean, I would think that even you would have been happier with that outcome. The GOP would most certainly be happier with that outcome, with as much damage as Trump is doing to the brand right now.
You are right, he’s not that good a negotiator, he’s gonna sell it off for pennies on the dollar.
[/hijack to a flashback to 5 months ago]
And that brings us back to this thread.
You are saying that there is no chance of trump leaving office through impeachment or resignation, and that to think that there is a chance is at best a fool’s hope.
Well, a fool’s hope is better than no hope, but I also disagree that it is as unlikely as you seem to think. If nothing else, it is obvious that trump is not enjoying himself, he may resign just out of frustration.
In order to think that trump will make it all the way through the term, you have to make several assumptions.
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The russian thing isn’t’ as bad as it seems. It either does not touch him, or at least no evidence of his involvement in either the planning or the coverup of collusion.
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That trump continues to behave to the GOP. If he grows a conscience, and refuses to sign a ACHA that doesn’t just not live up to his campaign promise of covering everyone better and cheaper, but in fact moves away from that goal in a way that will be obvious to even his most ardent supporters, then the GOP has a reason to remove the obstacle in their path. This would the case for any bill put on his desk for him to sign. The corollary to this is the fact that if he is being impeached because he won’t play ball with the republicans, he may find enough allies on the left to prevent impeachment.
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He stays in reasonable health. He is old, and he does not look healthy at all. The president’s office is the most stressful job in the world (or it should be if you take it seriously), and that is quite a bit of stress on an already frail man.
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The democrats don’t pick up a majority in the house. Now, it is unlikely for the dems to pick up even a slim majority in the senate, much less a supermajority to convict, but should trump be blamed for the 2018 electoral failure, he may find many republicans not having his back.
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He continues to enjoy doing the job. It’s a stressful job that really is not very rewarding. He has already complained a few times that it was harder than he thought it would be, and that he liked it better before he was president. All he has to do is type up a letter and sign it, and viola, his wish is granted.
So, my point is that the hope that Trump leaves office in a more immediate fashion than being voted out in 2020 is not without any logical path, as it would be with your medium example. You may argue that it is unlikely, but you cannot make the argument that it is impossible, as you would if someone was claiming to talk to the dead.
Jerry Brown v.2 has actually been a highly effective governor and would probably make for a surprisingly pragmatic and non-nonsense president. Age aside I’d be happen to vote for him. But he has the speaking charisma of a rock. Not even a particularly zen rock - we’re talking a dull rock. And I’ve met the guy in person when he was mayor of Oakland ( my buddy even accidentally kicked his unruly dog when were moving a friend into the same apartment building where Brown’s then girlfriend lived ).
Gavin Newsome has charisma, but it is that kind of slick-haired corporate charisma that I think appeals more to wealthy coastal elites. He’s a very hip-Silicon-Valley-CEO sort of guy. Dunno how well that would translate for Middle America. Not to mention much like Brown he’ll get the full press “liberal Californian” tarbrush applied.
“You said I’m poorer than I am, and made me look [del]bad[/del] like a LOSER! I’M NOT A LOSER!”
I agree it’s not about the money per se. Money is the scorecard that proves he’s a winner. Being President makes him a winner. Having more people at his rallies makes him a winner. Anyone who threatens the idea that he’s a winner is the enemy.
Maybe a Pet Rock?
I was having drinks last might with some friends of mine who went to school with him, and I was telling them how he was going to be president some day. Or at least be a candidate. But he has to tone down the hair product!!
I love Al Franken and think he would be a terrific choice. He’s young, charismatic, smart as a whip and enough of an outlier to appeal to both younger and older. He speaks well.
What I don’t know is how he is viewed in his home state. Any serious missteps that could be exploited?
I’m personally a big fan of my own junior Senator, Jeff Merkley. But I don’t think he’s got the innate charisma to pull it off. Our senior Senator, Ron Wyden, would also be an excellent choice. Both have been fierce spearheads in opposition to All Things Trump. Wyden is 68, but he’s in good shape and has lots of experience. He’s our Follow-the-Money guy.
I think Newsome could pull it off, actually. After Trump’s scalp ferret, does hair really matter at all?
Al Franken is 66 years old, and would be 69 if he ran for election in 2020. That would make him about the same age as Trump when he was elected - and tied with him for being the oldest person to ever be elected president. Reagan was a year younger.
I realize that 66 is pretty young compared to other major Democrats, but he’s no spring chicken.
The problem the Democrats have is that they have a very thin back bench of potential candidates, and the party looks downright geriatric. All it’s leaders are old - the average age of the House Democratic leadrship is 76! In comparison, the average age of the Republican leadership is only 47. That’s a 29 year difference.
I blame the Clintons for this. The Clinton machine has kept the door shut on the Presidency by making it clear a long time ago that Hillary would be the anointed one. That kept new talent from rising up. In addition, the Democrats increasingly hold very safe seats, so a lot of them have basically been given lifetime seats once they won election. That also keeps new talent from rising up,
Good grief. That’s very significant.
My neighbor plays the radio in his truck too loud. I blame the Clintons for this.
My other neighbors neglect their sweet dog. I blame the Clintons for this.
My cat has bladder problems. I blame the Clintons for this.
There’s not going to be a third season of Home Fires. I blame the Clintons for this.
My mother is fading into dementia. I blame the Clintons for this.
Whatever. I blame the Clintons…
:rolleyes:
Gotta remember, 66 is the new 65.
As for Trump… if his disapproval rating keeps rising, Republicans will start running away from him as soon as the election season heats up.
But don’t be too sure - Bill Clinton’s disapproval rating was almost as high at this point in his presidency, and he bounced back. However, Trump doesn’t have anywhere near the political skills Bill Clinton had, and is too egotistical to do what Clinton did and pivot away from the things that were making him unpopular.
Trump can still recover from this, but the biggest obstacle to that is Trump. I expect him to continue doing things that get him shellacked in the media. How that will end is not clear. if his presidency ends early, I don’t believe it will be impeachment. Instead, it will end one of these ways:
- Health problems, real or made up to give him and excuse to bail out.
- He will resign and blame everyone but himself. He will claim that no one could stand how much he could win if left alone, so like Gulliver he was tied down by the Lilliputions around him until he decided to resign for the good of the country. And by the way, it takes a great man to sacrifice himself for his country like that. People should be in awe of his magnanimity. Of course, he would never use words that big or make a reference to a book - that would require that he actually read one.
- The 25th amendment is invoked after his popularity plummets into single digits, the media hounds him constantly, and finally the Congress takes action. If they are smart, they’d tell him that they loved him and thought he was great, but that dastardly media is just not going to let go and therefore the government is crippled by his presence. So sad, and we wish things were not like this, and you’re the greatest, most winningest President ever, but this just has to happen. If they’re really smart, they’ll give him the opportunity to fall on his sword and let ‘health reasons’ retire him.
But if I had to bet, I would say that Trump survives until the next election. And if it looks like he’s going to get blown out for re-election, he will simply announce that he’s not running again, because he’s 74 and can’t hack another four years. Then he’ll declare his Presidency a big win, and get to work building the first Presidential library with golden toilets and slot machines,
There is some truth in that, though. The average lifespan has increased significantly since Reagan’s time. Old people stay healthier longer (thank God for us, amirite?) And the population itself is older, and probably does’t care nearly as much about such things as they did in 1980 when the baby boom was young.
Never trust anyone over 70.