The other side is Trump is arguably the leader of the largest cult in United States history. If he suicides he will be lionized by much of his cult for a very long time. And it is virtually guaranteed there will be a tidal wave of deep state conspiracy theories if he suicides, even if he were to do it in front of everyone ala R Budd Dwyer. Has potential to be scary.
I’m considering three scenarios:
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Trump and co. stonewall for another year or so. The Dems take the Senate and a significant chunk of the House in 2018, enough to start a substantial, no-bullshit investigation into Trump. Faced with repeated and lengthy sessions testifying in front of Congress under oath, Trump snaps under the pressure and resigns citing poor health. September 2019 at the latest.
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Same as 1) but earlier, if the writing on the wall looks so poor for Congressional Republicans that the only way they can save their own seats is to pretend to be responsible adults and do some real questioning of Trump in the run-up to the 2018 election. June 2019 for this one.
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The public get burned out by the endless stream of Trump stories, stop caring and return all their incumbents in 2018. Trump serves out his term with Pence running in 2020. Trump declares himself the bestest president ever and retires with his big pile of taxpayer money.
I’ll rank likelihoods of these happening at 30%, 20%, and 40% respectively, with the last 10% for “Other” (e.g. Trump dies in office, WH staff revolt and put his head on a spike, etc). I know that doesn’t help the pool much but them’s my thoughts.
If you think it’s very remote, you have a chance to make a lot of money – right now, PredictIt has Trump’s chances of not being President for any reason by the end of 2018 as about 35%.
No way he resigns. Sorry, but Trump is not going to deliberately take the loser’s way out.
He may choose not to run in 2020, that I can believe. He’ll have looted plenty of money by then and will be happy to move on to another scam. If push comes to shove and Congress doesn’t want him anymore, they’ll have to drag him out of the Oval Office kicking and screaming. This gig is way too profitable.
He may not have a choice. Richard Nixon was as pugnacious and ruthless as they came and resignation was absolutely the last thing anyone would have ever imagined him doing. But resign he did. If your choice is between being forced out of office through the impeachment process or resignation while claiming that you were the victim of an unfair political witch hunt by the establishment, then the latter might seem like winning, especially if he can fire up his most loyal and unhinged of supporters. Mind you, I don’t think he goes down with a bitter and vicious fight. But he could still get pushed out.
What are the odds of that happening right now? Too early to tell, but it’s no longer a remote possibility. The Republicans should have passed key legislation by now. The longer they go without accomplishing their goals, they risk reigniting the intra-party clashes that marked much of the 2015 legislative calendar and the 2016 GOP primary campaign schedule.
I agree with you wholeheartedly that he doesn’t want to leave until he’s made a mint off of the office, which he appears to be well on his way to doing already.
Keep your eyes on the George House race (tomorrow, I think). I acknowledge that one lone loss wouldn’t be the end of the GOP’s chances in 2018 but it could have a major psychological impact that would motivate the party to call a timeout. If that happens, I think we’re going to see various factions from within the GOP corner Donald and tell him to get his shit together or that they’ll fix that problem themselves.
I just watched Robert Redford’s 2013 documentary revisiting “All The President’s Men” (MSNBC ran it over the weekend). Yes, Nixon resigned, and yes, it was because of a Congressional investigation that got the Oval Office tapes and a House vote for impeachment.
But … both houses of Congress were in Democratic hands. Even though the parties weren’t nearly as divided as they are now, that makes a difference (as far as how far the investigations went early on, until even Republicans realized Nixon had gone too far).
And, the biggest influence on the power brokers in the House and Senate was overwhelming public pressure for impeachment, or at least to do something. I don’t see that happening with Trump, not without some kind of real, actual, literal smoking gun.
So I don’t see resignation in the offing.
OK if we have to assume he’s going to resign, and can claim that I’m doing so under protest so as to avoid Bricker nagging at me to put money where my mouth is, I’ll say July 20, 2019.
After a Democratic sweep in the midterms in which holding Trump accountable is a major campaign issue. Add another 6 months or so to fully investigate and document everything, and bring impeachment proceedings, to finally leave on my birthday as the best present ever.
Add me to the list of involuntary removal from office for health reasons.
He’s an overweight 71-year-old who eats unhealthy food and gets little exercise. He gets emotionally worked up over relatively minor things. Either a massive heart attack or a major stroke is definitely possible.
If the heart attack doesn’t kill him, he may end up resigning because his doctors insist on it. If the stroke doesn’t kill him, he may be removed from office by pence or whoever it is that has the authority to remove a severely mentally disabled president from office.
Question: What did his father die of? How old was he when he died?
Fred Trump died of pneumonia at age 93.
But don’t worry about The Donald - he was the healthiest president ever elected, according to his doctor, right?
When hell freezes over.
Regards,
Shodan
June 14, 2019.
I absolutely agree with you that the Republican congress is a significant difference between 2017 and 1973-4. I’ve been among those who’ve reminded people of that fact. However, that support comes with qualifications.
As long as they feel safe in maintaining control of congress and being able to pass the legislation that they want to pass, I agree that Trump is safe. The problem is that Trump’s behavior is making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to achieve their agenda and quite possibly threatening the House majority next year. The Senate is in no danger if falling to the Democrats unless Trump just causes a massive backlash, which I don’t see happening. But the House could be up for grabs. It shouldn’t be, but it could.
I agree that we’re not yet approaching the moment of impeachment proceedings yet and might not be for sometime. But I do think there will be several bellwethers in the coming weeks. The Georgia congressional race for Tom Price’s (and former speaker Newt Gingrich’s) seat will be one. And Trump’s handling of the probe will be something else to watch.
It’s possible to argue that Trump is one of those slow-suicide people–takes no exercise and eats junk food. Every time he takes knife and fork to another bucket of KFC or spoon to his vaunted two scoops of ice cream on his pie, it’s part of his suicide.
I was curious about what sort of medical care/oversight Trump might be receiving, now. Apparently the official position ‘physician to the President/Director of the White House Medical Unit’ is still filled by the Navy admiral/M.D. who served Obama:
Since this care is free there’s no doubt Trump will have parted ways with his former doctor (and eccentric prose stylist) Harold Bornstein. But one wonders what sort of advice Dr. Jackson might be giving the greasy-foods-loving Trump.
eta site with data on Dr. Jackson: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/bios/bio.asp?bioID=953
Or he’ll find a way to live stream it.
So now we have:
6/1/18
11/3/17
6/27/18
7/20/19
6/14/19
I’ve disallowed April 2018 due to the lack of a specific date during that month. Let me know if I’ve missed any other dates amid the chatter.
Fred Trump died at age 93 of pneumonia after suffering Alzheimer’s for six years.
So, you think he’s going to use the guy who can’t be ordered to provide the medical evaluation he wants, just because he’s already being paid to do the job?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Oh, country mouse!
He’ll just stick us with Bornstein’s bill.
I’m just a boy with a dream. April 1, 2018.
Side prediction: Once he is no longer in office (regardless of how he leaves it) he will continue to hold “rallies”.
There is a vast difference between Nixon and Trump.
Nixon was crooked; Trump is crazy. Nixon knew when the game was up, and was already plotting the rehabilitation of his career. Trump knows no such cleverness, or nuance. Nixon was guy who was paranoid, and insecure, but arguably meant well. Trump is a narcissist who cares for one but Trump, and Trump’s image. Trump would never resign.
Now, if this investigation gets more intense, given his age and obesity, I can see him dying suddenly like Harding did, Pence taking over, and narrowly winning a term of his own because the Democrats don’t really have anyone worthwhile to put forward.
I agree that if Trump HAD to have an exam, he’d be likely to bypass the official White House physician in favor of one who’d say he was The Healthiest Evah—with bonus points for a doctor who’d pad the bill massively and (this is crucial) cut Trump in on the taxpayer-funded action.
But of course Trump is under no sort of obligation or requirement to have any medical attention or examination whatsoever.
Looking at this topic online, it was interesting to see the chatty articles from years past about whether You, The Reader, should get an exam as thorough as that given W this year or Obama that year…but no one back then was thinking ‘this guy has got to show us some sort of proof that he’s not either deep into Alzheimer’s or about to have a coronary while his hand is hovering over the launch button.’
The odds are that unless it can be made into a payday for him, Trump won’t let any doctor examine him.
As for the thread topic: I keep thinking about all those money-laundering investigations and the high likelihood of Trump’s having violated numerous federal and state laws during the unsavory course of his attempts to Be A Real Billionaire. Maybe Trump can’t be tried for any such crimes while he’s President. And maybe Trump doesn’t care all that much whether his sons are indicted.
But Trump would care if his business ‘empire’ were to be exposed as a shabby, rickety house of cards propped up with dirty mob and oligarch money—and it were to be completely dismantled while all his lieutenants (and sons, possibly) end up in prison. What Trump would care about would be his image, of course–not the ‘don’t bend over in the shower’ fates of those who’ve worked for him.
Mueller is a Republican, but he’s not a Mitch McConnell or Paul Ryan-style Republican. He might see it has his patriotic duty to proceed, instead of quashing. If so–and if progress continues to be leaked and publicized–and if it looked quite certain that the Trump Organization were to be stripped down to a humiliating level–
—IF it got to that point, then Trump would be pushed to do something that would force him to resign.
I believe he’s capable of responding to such a situation by committing a clear-cut crime —possibly trying to hire someone to use violence, if simply trying to fire Mueller showed no signs of actually stopping the investigation (if, say, those under Mueller were steadfast in continuing). And Trump would do it ineptly enough that it would become known, and it would be, at that point, impossible for Ryan, McConnell and the rest to go on supporting him–they’d have to call for impeachment.
At that point Trump would either resign or have that fatal aneurysm or infarction.
I think this is less than a year away. So I’ll go for Friday, 25 May 2018.