This contest is open to Dopers until April 30, 2024. The goal is to predict when the price of any class of share of Trump’s Truth Social will fall below certain values. The difference between your guesses and the actual dates will be taken. I will mail a nice but not particularly valuable prize to the person with the lowest sum of the differences. In the event of a tie, I maintain the right to randomly choose one winner.
To enter, you must predict when any share price of Truth Social will fall below $15, and below $10 and below $5. If you believe this will not happen during 2024, you can also say that, and will receive a difference of zero for that value when this contest closes on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this contest closes any time the share price is below $15.
Good luck to you, sage financier!
Example: I predict the price of Truth Social will fall below $15 on April 19, below $10 on April 25, and below $5 on April 27, making this contest difficult to judge due to many late entrants.
Ought that be “below $15”? Because by the time it nears $5, folk will know exactly when it dipped below $15 and $10. (Just don’t want you to think folk aren’t taking this contest seriously!)
That depends on if it dips below those numbers before April 30. I wrote this thread before seeing how badly things had gone today so changed the numbers. FWIW, CNN sees a 52-week low of $12.40, but they probably lack the sophisticated sagacity of MAGA beliebers. If it drops below $5 before April 30, late entries have an unfair advantage, so a winner may be chosen at random.
This is an exceedingly serious contest. After all, Trump Social attracts serious investors, many of whom are associated with serious institutions. (Although these institutions may be more eleemosynary or medical than pure finance.).
Does it have to dip below and stay there? Is it the first time it dips below a threshold, and if it recovers slightly and dips below again, the second one doesn’t count?
No. The first time the value dips below these numbers, that date is still recorded and used to determine the winner even if the value subsequently climbs.
Up another 20% today so far today. I blame this thread. When Trump pays all his judgments, and hires the best lawyers money can by, we can all point to the April 16th post as the reason it started to turn around for Trump. /s
After all, Trump Social attracts serious investors, many of whom are associated with serious institutions. (Although these institutions may be more eleemosynary or medical than pure finance.). 
to the moon