Paul Krugman made the same point a week ago:
The meat of the argument:
Imagine yourself as the CEO of a U.S. company considering a range of possible investments, whose likely profitability depends on future federal policy. For example, some factories will be worth building if America honors the free trade pact with Canada and Mexico Trump himself signed in 2020, a minor revision of a free trade pact that took effect in 1994.
But those factories won’t be worth building if Trump rips up that agreement and imposes high tariffs at both our northern and southern borders. Instead, you’ll want to make defensive investments, designed to limit the damage of being cut off from Mexican and Canadian customers and suppliers.
So which investments will you make? A likely answer is, “None of them.” The rational thing, surely, is to hold off on big spending until, one hopes, there’s more clarity about policy.
So, lousy for industry, fixed, long-term investments, and suchlike. But there is one group that can make money in an environment like this, a group I like to call “the financialiizers.” These folks are day traders, insiders, goldbugs, cryptobros and scammers to various degrees. These are people who, with the right kind of knowledge, can survive and even thrive in chaotic circumstances, as long as they know a little in advance how and when the tides are going to change. Donald Trump did some pump-and-dump work in the 90s, amassing a position, touting its virtues, and then selling into the wave of buyers convinced such a famous mogul could do no wrong, so he knows the territory.
Could it be that Trump and his various hangers-on, political allies and such are financializing this chaos, and profiting while the average investor is taking it in the shorts? I’d love to have the data to be able to find out.
I’m sure they’d like to get the tariff situation straightened away, but I can just about guarantee that they are on board with many other parts of Trump’s agenda - taxes, regulations, labor rights. If the tariff thing were resolved they’d be gaga for him. And what’s the easiest way to resolve the tariff thing? I mean, U.S. states can’t tariff one another…