Things I'm Certain Of But Cannot Prove

Moderating: That is a pretty non-productive reply and bordering on insulting the poster. Please don’t repeat this.

I mean, when your defense against a claim of “he raped me at a drunken party” is “I didn’t have time to rape anyone because I was too busy having drunken parties, and I didn’t have time for drunken parties because I was too busy getting good grades” and “I couldn’t have been at the drunken party she mentioned, and as proof, here’s my log of all of the many drunken parties I went to”, that’s not exactly a big leap to that conclusion.

I feel Cecil reads every post, and he thinks I’m the funniest poster here.

I just have a personal anecdote. When I worked in a bar/lounge in college, we had a jockey who would come in on occasion. After hearing that the asst. manager and I had never been to the track, he arranged “VIP” passes for us. We went and were able to go to the jockeys’ dressing building before the races to meet him and thank him.

The jockey told us to bet on a particular horse in one of the races. The horse ends up failing to win. The next time he came into the bar, he apologized about the tip. He said the horse had been given Lasix but it didn’t work and the horse had bleeding in its lungs during the race.

What you need to know about the use of Lasix in horse racing

Lasix, also known as furosemide and described as an anti-bleeding medication, is used by veterinarians in horse racing to prevent respiratory bleeding in horses running at high speed.

I also know someone who knows one of the women who decided not to shoot herself in the foot by coming forward and saying he assaulted her, too. And my brother went to a lot of the same parties as Kavanough. I can’t prove what i said, but I’m really really certain of it.

The administration of Lasix probably wasn’t the inside information that the jockey was giving you. That’s posted in the Racing Form and other pre-race literature. My guess is that the complication of the Lasix not being effective prevented the intended outcome.

Yeah, the jockey didn’t mention Lasix until he came back to the bar on his next visit but explained that was what happened to the horse. He was cool enough to leave me a gratuity that covered what I lost on my bet.

I’d never gone to the track before so it was an interesting experience.

Did you think he was giving you a pro tip based on his experience and knowledge of the horses in the race? Or did you think the race was fixed and he was letting you in on it?

I’m certain that the concept of “proof” applies only to mathematical statements, and nothing in the real world can actually be proved.

Since I started binging British baking competitions, it’s become apparent to me that in addition to mathematical statements, the concept also applies to certain types of bread.

I’m not sure what you mean. Do you mean something as well-documented and witnessed as the 9/11 attacks literally can’t be proven to have happened?

Two different definitions of “proof” are in play here.

I suspect that it was fixed. It was about 30 years ago and it’s still the only time I’ve bet on horses and the details are fuzzy, but I remember placing my bet after getting the jockey’s tip before the first race. I think the odds were something like 8 to 1. The odds kept on dropping as the race got nearer and I think it went off close to 3 to 1 odds. I even joked to my friend that everyone must have gotten the same tip. But maybe experienced bettors were now placing bets closer to post time.

The jockey tip was “Bet this horse in this race and that’s all I’m going to say” or something like that.

If the race was fixed, the Lasix working or not shouldn’t have mattered unless the horse dropped dead on the track.

I don’t know much about horse racing or betting, but if the horse’s lungs started bleeding during the race I would imagine a negative effect on performance. IIRC, the horse faded at the end, but again, this was a long time ago. It’s not like the other jockeys could pull up to let him win, right?

I don’t typically associate athletic performance with lung bleeding. Are race horses bred to perform at “war emergency power”, where they push themselves to the brink of death?

Fixing races (either way) has been going on as long as there have been races.

It’s called cheating.

I know this, cannot prove it, but someone who’s just there, say jockey, groomer, walker, saddler, stallmucker is not gonna be able to give you more than a good guess.
The fixers would have to be criminals, employing the aid of vets and persons involved in the horses protection. A trainer or owner.
It happens, I know it. The racing officials know it.
Any one doing it is not gonna tell a random person, “psst…Smokey Joe in the 7th at Oaklawn, today”
They’d be a fool.

@dasmoocher’s link is interesting and has more info, but it seems the short answer is yes:

Yes, of course. Maybe you’re living in a Matrix-style simulation and everything you’ve ever seen is a fabrication. Maybe you’re living in a slightly less far-fetched environment where everyone around you is an actor and everything you’ve ever seen on media has been constructed to deceive you. I don’t for a minute believe that this is true, but it’s possible. “Proof” implies there is absolutely no possibility of error. Mathematical proofs have that characteristic. Nothing in the real world does.

I don’t know if this thread is still about Things I’m Certain of But Cannot Prove, but in any case, I am certain that Trump-ism is a symptom of lead paint and leaded gasoline.

Yes there are certainly post-lead-born Trumpists and lead-affected non-Trumpists but the core of people most enthusiastically swept up in all of this have lead poisoning.