Not trying to veer the topic away from three way races, but what would be the impact of, say, Trump being convicted of five counts of fraud and six counts of perjury by the State of New York? If Trump is on the ballot in 2024 does anyone see a voter shift to a more sane/ethical conservative candidate at that point?
That just means he’s smart!
Could she?
I mean, I think under this scenario, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and he’ll hold a grudge until he’s six feet under unless there’s some serious groveling happening. I don’t foresee Cheney engaging in that kind of submission behavior - she’s pretty much burned her boats and isn’t going back - and that would mean Donald Trump would blacklist everyone who associates with her. Whatever conservative institutions could provide a landing spot for Never Trumpers are going to either knuckle under to Trumpism or be throttled - donors will dry up, up-and-comers will avoid them or start their own new shops. Trump’s first term was hard enough on non-Trumpy conservative institutions; after a putative second term there won’t be any left.
I think a House-less Cheney is more likely to run a quixotic campaign for the Republican nomination, which may finally give us a bead on the strength of Never Trump (or, at least, “no more Trump”) strength in the Republican party. She’d probably get beaten like a drum, but if she goes after him the way no one in the 2016 Republican primary ever did until it was too late, she might at least demonstrate Trump’s folly and take away the small margin he needs to be able to win the general.
And his being convicted of any crime is simply a ‘political witch hunt’. Don’t forget that.
Goes without saying!
You may be right – she may have already killed her opportunities for gainful Republican-affiliated employment, at least in the short term. I do think, though, there is a difference between the anti-Trump stances she’s taken to date and her actively working to ensure that the Republican candidate for President loses the election. The later would be held against her long after (in my dreams) Trump and the MAGA heads lose their grip on the party.
I don’t think Liz Cheney could cause a significant dent one way or the other. Wyoming being Cheney country will probably come to an end this year. Her father’s legacy as one of the most powerful and yet widely unpopular leaders this country has had will hold sway over any positives she could offer regardless. And then the question is what positives is there? If you want to put a stop to Trumpism, which I do think is a noble goal, you vote Democrat.
Someone like Mitt Romney who is probably the only Republican legislating in good faith might be a different scenario in theory. In 2012 Romney was spooked by the Tea Party conservatives in abandoning his bipartisan credentials as governor of a blue state because it made him too liberal in the eyes of those freaks. I recall Julian Castro’s Democratic convention speech where he mocked Romney’s backtrack and got the crowd pumped up:
“When it comes to getting the middle class back to work, Mitt Romney says, ‘No.’ When it comes to respecting women’s rights, Mitt Romney says, ‘No.’ When it comes to letting people marry whomever they love, Mitt Romney says, ‘No.’ When it comes to expanding access to good health care, Mitt Romney says…
[Crowd shouts NO!]
“Actually, actually, actually, actually, Mitt Romney said, ‘Yes,’ and now he says, ‘No,’”
“Gov. Romney has undergone an extreme makeover, and it ain’t pretty. So here’s what we’re going to say to Mitt Romney in November. We’re going to say, ‘No.’”
But now Romney worked with Biden on the Infrastructure bill and is proposing some economic welfare legislation. His Child Tax Credit expansion bill is actually quite good. It is not permanent but can be used a fall back option if Manchin forces the issue.
In practice though it won’t happen. It’s a fun hypothetical to play around with but no one who takes themselves seriously will run as a third party in 2024 since we know Trump is 99% going to be on the ballot.
Yeah, her name is mud as long as Trump has power with the GOP, which could mean “for the rest of his natural life.”
Who would vote for Cheney in a 3-way in 2024?
- principled conservatives. Stop snickering. There might be as many as 1,000 of them left!
- right-wing feminists. Basically, right-wing women who supported Palin in 2008 long after the rest of us had made ourselves nauseated laughing at her gravitas as a national political figure. I know a few of these myself. “The GOP is NOT anti-woman! I am a proud woman who will not concede that my party is a bunch of sexist morons despite all the evidence to the contrary!”
- GOPers whom Trump has fucked over personally, or their fans. The Bush family, Mattis and some generals, Romney, Evan McMullin, GOPers he’s primaried, slandered, attacked, ridiculed, etc.
4)goofballs and contrarians–you know, the folks who just love to vote third party because there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between the GOP and the Dems. Losers who don’t have a hundred IQ points between them and who like telling themselves that they’re not sheeple, and that the 3rd Party candidate is not so baaaaaaa-aaad. - libertarians and other idiots
- Biden voters wanting to express their dissatisfaction with one of his policy choices through a protest vote fo someone who isn’t going to win anyway.