Now that Cheney has decisively lost her seat in the House, there is speculation that she might run for president. She’s not denying it and says that she will make that decision in a few months. Who does she think will vote for her? She’s VERY conservative so I can’t see any Democrats choosing her over a Democrat. The majority of Republicans are loyal to Trump and he made it his mission to see to it that she lose her primary race so I can’t see many Republicans choosing her either. That leaves independents and there just aren’t enough of them.
I appreciate the stand that she took but she should just move on with her life outside of politics. Sometimes, the bad guys win.
If Agent Orange is, she could try as a third-party candidate, which would split the conservative vote (and make it more likely he’d lose). That would be cool, but I can’t imagine going to the effort and expense it would take to do that. She’d have no chance at all of winning.
She also suffers guilt by association for being Dick Cheney’s daughter.
But I think some Republicans that aren’t Trumpers would vote for her in a heartbeat over Trump or DeSantis. I think some former Republicans that can’t believe where their party has gone but are basically still conservative would vote for her. I don’t see even moderate Democrats voting for her, so it would probably be good for the country if she ran as an independent.
Of course she has no chance and Democrat’s would be fools to vote her for many reasons. What she would be good for is drawing money and votes away from MAGAs by running as an independent Fuck You Trump candidate.
If she runs and only campaigns in R-leaning states (like TX, OH, FL) that won’t be tipping point states than I think she should run for sure. That way she can only help the Democratic candidate. I don’t think we can know whether she’d take more away from the R or D candidate, so until we knew this for sure she should stay away from tipping point states like PA, WI, MI, AZ, and GA.
I think it’s just as possible that she would provide a refuge for reluctant Biden voters who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump, and end up splitting his coalition.
Her immediate goal is wrecking the Trumpist/populist wing of the Republican party and reinstate the corporatist wing. I don’t think running for president in 2024 will help with that. Her best way to influence the party is by punditry and organizing, not running for office. Being on the outside will give her the opportunity to say and do things she couldn’t while in office.
I’ll never vote for her, but I’ll reject her on the merits of her positions, not the automatic rejection I use for current Republicans.
There aren’t a lot of scenarios where I’d be likely to vote for her, but given the stand she’s taken in the past two years I do believe I could vote for her in at least some circumstances.
I do not believe 2024 is her future, if she does run for President 2028 seems like the time to do that. Spend the next four or five years building up her retail political infrastructure, getting committees in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc. Meeting with big donors, crafting policies that have broad appeal and also capitalize on her reputation for standing up to authority (while somehow being part of the establishment.)
If she does run in 2024, it will be within that new “moderate” party that Yang is promoting. The best hope for that effort seems to be a hope for synergistic gains in placing known names from competing parties into the same pot for idealistic morons like me who want the world to be a Frank Capra movie.
While she could be attempting to split the Republican vote as a poke-in-the-eye to TFG, I think, based on some of the reporting, it’s more long range.
In the interview on Wednesday, she called Trump a “grave threat” and said, “I think that defeating him is going to require a broad and united front of Democrats, Republicans and independents, and that’s what I intend to be part of.”
Cheney didn’t say whether she would run as a Republican or an independent, but said the GOP is “in very bad shape” and said it “could take several election cycles” to return it to its principles. But she said it was important for the country that the Republican Party return to its roots, instead of being focused on Trump.
So based on this, it is my opinion she’s trying to keep a visible ‘traditional’ Republican POV in the election cycles to serve as a counter to Trumplicans, and hopes that after a few more cycles of crazies, that there will be a willingness to return to something closer to sanity. And if such a cycle occurs, as the Grand Olde Person of the traditionals, she’d be a welcome and viable candidate.
Do I think it will work? No. And as others, I’m worried she’d attract votes away from some of the anti-Trump conservatives that are now voting as reluctant conservative Democrats. But who knows?
I agree with this. She will have more power and flexibility to call the MAGAts out on their lies without having to worry about pleasing some base of voters. All she has to do is add a rift in Republican voters in several purple key states to deny TFG a win. TFG wants her to “disappear”, but I think that is just a wish.
That makes sense to me, too. She’ll run (and get trounced) in the '24 primaries, but if the Trumpish GOP crashes and burns after '24 she’ll be well-positioned to win the nomination in '28. Or '32.
Would I vote for her in the general? Fuck no. But I would be glad to vote against a sane opponent and would not fear for my country’s future with her in the White House.
Perhaps she’ll run just to be able to engage Trump in a debate forum. Basically, to burn down his house in the public eye where Trumpies will actually be watching.
This, although the only way a woman could win would be against a total loser like Trump. Remember, Clinton beat Trump by nearly 3 million votes (damn electoral college system)!
TFG will never agree to a 1:1 with her. He’s too afwaid. He was barely able to hold it together facing-off against the gentle and elderly Mr. Biden. She’d rip him to shreds.
All patriotism and posturing aside, what the Cheneys and their private constituents (not voters) want is to get the industrial war machine back in power, that is who they are and why they are trying to make sure Trump doesn’t get back in office.
Back to perptual war and the money that brings in for the real Cheney support people. She is, was, and will remain a Neo-Con and her father’s daughter. She is not in this to protect the constitution, that was just for show. They want to crank that war machine back up.
If she runs for president I don’t know who will be voting for her, but I know there will be a lot of money coming in from the industrial complex war machine. The need for a handy regime change will be provided when the time comes.
I’ve never asked for a Republican ballot for a primary election, but if it’s Cheney vs Trump on the Republican side, I might consider doing so in order to vote against the con man. It would depend on the possible Democratic primary race. I’d rather choose a Democratic ballot.
So in theory, there may be a circumstance where I would vote for her over Trump.
If she runs in the GOP primaries in 2024 and loses, there are some states, like Ohio, which have “sore loser” laws which mean she couldn’t then run in the general election. Better, I’d say, if she runs as an independent in the general - perhaps as the candidate of Forward, the party which Andrew Yang and others recently founded. She’d hurt Trump the most that way in November, drawing off conservative Never-Trumpers.
Dopers in this thread and elsewhere often seem split on whether a 3rd party candidate would help Trump or Biden (if he runs again). I fear even an arch conservative like Cheney would hurt Biden more, because most voters just aren’t that well-informed. They know they don’t like Trump, so they’d vote for Biden even though they sort of believe all this stuff about him being a semi-senile old coot who caused inflation. Cheney gives them a way to feel good about voting for neither, so she takes votes away from Biden.