ThxGiving Football picks (for the sports impaired)

Good question.

Favre is long passed “the top of his game.” Sanders was 30 when he retired; Smith was 28. Favre just turned 38. He’s having a great year, but the top of his game was the mid to late 90’s, and he’s not going to match that period again.

If you’re looking for an anaolog to Favre, you want to talk about “going out on top” and cite John Elway (who retired at age 38 after two consecutive Super Bowl victories), not guys who retired when they were 10 years younger than he is now.

I’d look at his stats if I were you. His rating now is the second highest of his entire career. His passing percentage has never been higher and he’s also matching his career high for yards per attempt.

He’s having a pretty damned good year, especially compared to the past few turnover-plagued ones.

Sure, he’s having a great year, but it’s the comparison to Smith and Sanders that trips you up. Sanders retired in his prime without ever having a down year. Smith retired suddenly after the best season of his pro career. Neither of them hung around into their mid 30s and had the kinds of seasons that Favre had over the last two years. There’s no comparison between either of those guys and Favre.

I’m in northern California. Thanks for all the advice guys and gals. Why do I get the feeling Trunk is pulling my leg?

If it’s college ball you’re worried about, recognize the huge implications of this weekend’s games for the national title race. Only the top two teams at the end of the regular season (end of the month) get to play in the national championship game…but there are about 5 teams who all have a shot. It all depends on who can win their remaining games and who ends up knocking themselves out of the race. Every weekend in college football is critical for the top teams, but this next couple of weekends could be far wilder than the end of most seasons.

LSU is #1 and must win their last two games to stay in the running for the national title race. They face a potentially tough opponent in Arkansas on Friday. After that, they play in their conference championship game, which means they should have another tough game.

Kansas is currently #2, and Missouri is #4. They play each other on Saturday, and the winner will have just one game (the conference championship) standing between them and a spot in the national championship game.

There are a couple teams just chomping at the bit for any or all of the above teams to screw up. West Virginia (#3) only needs LSU to lose once more, or the winner of the Kansas/Missouri game to lose the following week. If either of those things happen, and WVU wins their last two games, they will play for a national title.

Similarly, Ohio State (#5) still has a shot to play for the big prize, but they realistically need losses from at least three of above teams to move into the top two spots.

Confused? If so, don’t sweat it too much. Just recognize that there are still a few teams with real hopes of playing for and winning a national championship. To that end, three of this weekend’s games have major national implications. Those big games are LSU/Arkansas, Kansas/Mizzou, and West Virginia/Connecticut. Try to sort out this mess, and you’ll sound super smart.

ETA: I’m a West Virginia fan, so go Razorbacks…go Big 12 South champ next week, and most importantly, LET’S GOOOO MOUNTAINEERS!

“Tony Romo is totally nailing that American Idol chick…”

Never factored age into it.

Ok, so you’re probably around Charger fans and/or Bay area (Raiders/Niners) fans and possibly some Seahawks fans. None of those teams factor much into divisional or regional rivalries tomorrow, so you’re pretty much safe on those grounds. Cowboys hatred is generally pretty universal, so it’s probably pretty safe to say that you want them to get upset by the Jets. During the Packers/Lions game, say that you wish the announcers would quit blowing Favre for 5 minutes (don’t worry that they won’t do that. They will). You will also be able to repeat that lament during the Indy game, only they’ll be blowing Peyton Manning this time.

Other random stuff trivia that might help:

Terrell Owens, wide receiver for he Cowboys (refer to him casually as “T.O.”) is generally reagrded as a jackass and a locker room cancer. He is also notorious for elaborate touchdown celebrations. I kind of like the guy but you can take either tact. Say you wish he’d fall on his face or say you kind of dig him (it’s ok to take a view which is contrary to the norm as long as you let it be known that you KNOW it’s contrary to the norm).

Brett Favre has never missed a start in his entire career at Green Bay. It’s an NFL record comparable (actually more impressive, IMO) to cal Ripken’s streak in baseball.

The Lions have been horrible forever. This is their first respectable season since the Barry Sanders days. They have a great receiving corps. Rookie, Calvin Johnson was a very high draft touted as another Randy Moss. He hasn’t had that kind of year (Moss was ROY in his first season), but that’s partially due to injury. He’s worth keeping an eye on.

The Lions’ quarterback, Jon Kitna, is a religious nut who said eariler this year that Jesus healed him from a concussion. If he takes a big hit, you can make a crack about faith healing.

Indy won the Superbowl last year (just in case you didn’t know). Peyton Manning is a really, really good quarterback. Indy’s coach, Tony Dungy, is one of the best liked and most respected coaches in the game. He was also the first black coach to win a Superbowl.

The AFC is much better than the NFC right now. Indy and the Patriots are the two best teams in the league and it’s generally assumed that whichever one of those teams wins the AFC (probably the Pats) will win the Superbowl. Dallas and Green Bay are, at present, the odds on favorites to meet in the NFC championship but it’s also pertty much assumed that whichever team makes it to the Superbowl will get clobbered by the AFC team (especially if it’s the Pats).

Sorry, I was confusing Robert Smith with Robert Edwards, that running back (for the Patriots) who shattered his leg in a pick-up beach game at the pro-bowl, which is why I thought LOUNE’s post was a parody. Also, Barry didn’t leave “at the top of his game”, Tiki Barber did. Barry left “disgruntled with management.” There’s a big difference. Mainly it was that Barry wanted to keep playing but didn’t, which makes comparing him to Favre inappropriate.

I also agree with Enginerd’s reasoning. Favre’s career graph looks roughly like this:


     __
    /  \__         ?
   /      \__      |
  /          \__   |
 /              \__|
/

I mean, people have been calling for his retirement for three years now. Since he didn’t retire before the long decline, he can’t be said to have retired at the top of his game regardless of the details surrounding his retirement.

This isn’t as true as it used to be; the NFC currently has a winning record against the AFC. And while I agree that the Patriots are pretty much a shoe-in for winning it all this year, if you objectively rank the teams from first to worst, both the Cowboys and Packers would almost certainly be ranked ahead of any AFC team outside of Boston. Both would beat the snot out of the Colts – who are basically the equivalent of the Giants – and judging by that Jets game both could fairly easily beat the Steelers. The Jags would be tough, but I can’t see them beating the Cowboys even once out of 10 tries. They could take a few from the Packers, but I think Green Bay is a better team. I know I’d take Favre over Garrard in a heartbeat.

Various power rankings demonstrate my point:

CBS Sportsline

  1. Patriots
  2. Packers
  3. Cowboys
  4. Colts
  5. Giants
  6. Jaguars

ESPN

  1. Patriots
  2. Cowboys
  3. Packers
  4. Colts
  5. Jaguars
  6. Giants

FOX Sports

  1. Patriots
  2. Cowboys
  3. Packers
  4. Colts
  5. Steelers
  6. Giants

The funny thing is, two of the guys coming over who are always going on about football, went to Vegas several months ago and put $1000 on the Niners to go to the Superbowl. Whenever they tease me about not following football I remind them of that brilliant bit of prognostication.

So, how did it go?

It went great. Everybody thought I was pretty up on the sport until my wife spilled the beans. OH well , still in a turkey haze. I thought I would get a rest today but first thing this morning I found myself throwing out pumpkins and indian corn and then hauling christmas lights out and hanging them. My wife is a holiday nut.