I’m here down and to the right a bit of Dung Beetle (and very slightly down and to the right of Ivylass and to the right of T-Cups). My guess is that the eyewall is going to pass us, but not by much. So I might have to put the fence back up after the storm passes (again), but I won’t be replacing windows.
Doesn’t matter where you are. Either the blood banks can use your blood right now, or they’ll need it to replenish stocks later on.
Charleston, South Carolina here.
The news has been worsening for a day or so. The governor pushed the panic button and ordered the evacuation. I’m outside of the zone just south of Lake Moultrie.
Still, looks like Wednesday and Thursday could be a bit hectic and wet here. Wish us luck.
I wish all of you well, in the path of this storm. I know how nailbiting it can be, trying to figure out if you should run, and when you did, wondering if you have a home to return to.
The latest models from the ECMWF suggest this storm is going to loiter for awhile between Florida and Grand Bahama. It is then projected to run over the outermost Outer Banks, as well as make a direct hit on Newfoundland as a fairly intense low. Not a hurricane, but it still looks in the model like a big enough storm to break things on Newfoundland.
I’d not read any advisories for Newfoundland so far, and the model run has been fairly consistent over the last few days, so I thought those of you in Newfoundland might want to know.
And moving slowly. Whatever and whoever in the path have to take that beating for long hours.
Sister’s home is in Jupiter, FL, near I-95. She and her husband work at the VA Hospital in West Palm, he’ll be on duty there, she will be at the house with the lads (their colleges and workplaces have released themfor the week). She’s looking warily at some areas still under construction further up the street in the development, where there are partially built structures and trailers that may become a projectile source.
Out of curiosity, suppose you found yourself in the wrong place and one of those 180mph winds grabbed you and stuck you against the side of the barn. Trapped there as the wind holds you in place, how much pressure would you be under?
Physicists and engineers, jump on in and correct me, but the basic equation for drag force on a body is: .5 * drag coefficient * Area * fluid density * (fluid velocity^2). Fluid density of air is ~1.2 kg/m^3, Drag coefficient for a standing human is ~ 1.2, frontal area of a standing human has been measured at .6-.7 m^2. Let’s use sustained winds of 180 MPH, or about 80 m/s.
So: .5 * 1.2 * .65 * 1.2 * 80^2. I get about 3000 Newtons of drag force. Or the force of gravity on ~ 300 kilograms. 660 pounds over your body is going to stick you to quite a few things.
The pressure isn’t that great. 660 pounds over a thousand square inches or so. It doesn’t take a lot of Delta P to move things. Or break them.
Anyway, with apologies to Ron White, it’s not so much that the wind’s blowing. It’s what the wind’s blowing.
And almost on top of me. I got beer, too. Come on over.
Wife’s surgery is schedule for Wednesday morning. Not looking very likely. But it looks like I get to charge a plant-closing number instead of PTO for this week. The place (in Melbourne) was closed by flooding for a week after Irma, and this time the retention ponds and ditches are already mostly full from recent heavy rain. So we’ll have to see. At least we don’t have a storm surge worry this far inland.
Remember: Don’t eat all your hurricane snacks too soon, or you won’t fit into the little helicopter basket. 
Georgia and South Carolina coasts under mandatory evacuation orders beginning at noon today, and contraflow* set to begin on interstate 16 out of Savannah tomorrow morning. Things are still looking okay for my area, but if Dorian doesn’t take a right pretty soon, we’ll bug out to the north end of the county Wednesday-ish. (40-50 mph winds + mobile home = nope. Plus Mama’s house has a propane stove/oven, so… Coffee. And it’s below the crest of a hill, which gives a lot of protection from winds. Not to mention, southern grandma. No chance of running low on food!)
Girl 2.0 will probably stay put - her townhouse is pretty solid. And The Boy will probably go stay with her, because his frat house is still a minor construction zone. I’ll feel better if the girls have a resourceful guy handy, and I don’t care if that sounds sexist. Gotta call the girls and tell them to fill bathtubs for flushing water… But 2.0 works at the grocery store, and classes at the university have been cancelled through Wednesday at least, so she’ll probably be catching some overtime.
Anyway, off to declutter the yard and finish laundry. This is like being stalked by an alligator snapping turtle. Probably can’t catch me, but it’s gonna hurt if it does!
Good luck everyone in the path!
*The very best lesson taken from the Hurricane Floyd evacuation in 1999. Getting inland during Floyd was a nightmare. Crossover lanes were added to I16 and blocking arms - like at a railroad track - were added at the ramps. During evacuation, 16 becomes eastbound in all lanes. There are still plenty of surface roads for westbound traffic as needed.
Are you trying to counter his statement that central Florida isn’t likely to suffer a category 4 hurricane? The hurricane you referenced occurred almost 100 years ago. And that’s not central Florida.
There have been several recent hurricanes to hit Florida as Cat IV or V. But they usually fizzle out by the time central Florida feels their effects.
What a slow moving storm. We’ve seen the picture of Dorian gray skies off the coast of Florida for days now.
It’s close enough to Florida that you can pull up radar and play the last 2 hrs. It’s not moving. It’s essentially a very large F3 tornado that is sitting over the Bahamas. There isn’t going to be anything left of the island.
But what about Atlantis…?
(…too soon?)
Dorian has begun its turn to the north. 285 at 1 kt, per NHC 1400 hrs Eastern advisory. Remnants of Lisa Public Advisory
Weakened to 938 central pressure, sustained winds of 150 MPH.
Poor Bahamas. 10s of hours in 150 mph plus winds, with 18-23 feet of surge, is a lot to ask of anything.
No. I am saying that riding out a storm of this magnitude is dangerous despite previous hurricane hunkering down experience.
That’s as may be, but trying to avoid the storm isn’t practical. None of us know where it is going, even NOAA. If you’re in an unsafe home it makes sense to go to a shelter, but leaving town usually doesn’t make sense.
Crap, 5pm report and 6pm update show it stationary. Even the best structures can only take so much for so long.
And consider what with 20’ storm surge, most of Grand Bahama is less than that high above MSL. Earlier to day CNN relayed some phone video the Minister of Agriculture uploaded from inside his house. That’s not good. And that’s likely one of the best houses in town.
With certain things, you’re never sure if they’re humor or real; we are talking about FL residents, after all. :rolleyes:
It doesn’t look like it’s moved much at all but the power of it seems to have diminished. It will still be dumping a ridiculous amount of water on the Bahamas.
The hurricane is reflecting our own increasing torpidity and laziness while we continue to look the same.