Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread)

[HookerChemical]

@Dead_Cat

I kind of wish I hadn’t nailed my colours to the mast quite so firmly, so early (rookie error I guess), because I’m seeing some good reasons for voting for Sario and IRConfused (and I was already leaning scum towards them both). But if I change my vote now and am wrong, that will look bad. On the other hand, if I change my vote and it’s right, that would be better (for the game I mean, in both cases).

I’ve said how I feel about this. Point 4.

@HookerChemical

Lynch the loud is a bad way to start if we’re essentially poking around blind. At least they’re making a record. There are a few things I picked up from watching a game and playing the previous. If others care to disagree, we can discuss, but my takeaways (for the benefit of new and inexperienced) were:

[ul]
[li]Get on the record. Even if you’re about to be mis-lynched for a horrible cheese pun, get your thoughts on the record. It gives people something to review even after your death. Maybe you’ve seen something others haven’t. Creating a record is townie. And if you flip scum, at least we can consider that when viewing the record. Lurking doesn’t create a record and is therefore faintly scummy. And if lynch the lurker results in a mis-lynch, town loses somebody who wasn’t contributing substantially, which hurts less than losing a verbose townie who’s at least scum hunting.[/li][li]Post count is a rough cut of contribution. One robust post can be worth more than several check-ins or off-topic posts. See the “Anatomy of a clusterfuck” post from storyteller’s game a couple back for an example of something that carried the weight of several. (This is my own expansion on the previous point I picked up from others’ comments.)[/li]
[li]Scum tends to operate in a straight forward manner. There may be simple fake-outs and bluffs, but town tends to think they’re operating wheels within wheels within wheels. It’s possible, but it is frequently not the case.[/li]
[li]Town sometimes spends too much time trying to look town than to act town. Town needs to hunt scum and act townie. Looking townie should follow.[/li][/ul]

@Dead_Cat

I also think it’s unlikely Sario and IRConfused are both scum, since the latter voted for the former early in the day, which would be an odd scum-on-scum move I think (unless they plan to unvote at some point, I suppose).

If I were Sario, I would be trying to post more, the fact he hasn’t does seem rather suspicious.

Agreed on both points. Though they’re both high on my list of likely scum, I think it’s unlike they’re both scum. It’s wholly possible that an early scum on scum vote was made, but I don’t see it staying there with the way things have played out.

I would love for Sario (or IRConfused) to mount a defense. If they’d like to explain thier few actions, I’m open to listening. I’m leaning IRConfused, but a decent push will change that.

[HookerChemical]

@WF_Tomba

We should be careful not to allow the Wolves to engineer a tie.

I’m much more worried about wolves moving us away from a tie than into a tie. Sure, a no-lynch isn’t good, but it’s better than a mis-lynch. (I get that this is a debatable position, but that isn’t critical to my argument.)

There are three outcomes: mis-lynch, no-lynch, wolf-lynch. Wolves probably rank them in that order. If they engineered a no-lynch, that says to me they are trying to avoid a wolf-lynch.

Does anybody else read it differently?

[Octarine]

With regards to Sario: while I agree he’s closer to the “scum” side of the spectrum in my mental map, certain posts of his seem very town. Like 120:

@Sario

Statistically speaking, a given player is unlikely to be scum multiple games in a row, however it can happen as I myself proved. It is much more useful to look at play styles though, as Biotop pointed out, the data set is rather small.

Wouldn’t a wolf try and use the gambler’s fallacy to their advantage?

[Octarine]

@HookerChemical

I’m much more worried about wolves moving us away from a tie than into a tie. Sure, a no-lynch isn’t good, but it’s better than a mis-lynch. (I get that this is a debatable position, but that isn’t critical to my argument.)

There are three outcomes: mis-lynch, no-lynch, wolf-lynch. Wolves probably rank them in that order. If they engineered a no-lynch, that says to me they are trying to avoid a wolf-lynch.

Does anybody else read it differently?

Pretty much - if they’re engineering a tie, that means the two top candidates for lynching are both wolves. But I don’t see much evidence for WF Tomba’s concerns.

[IRConfused]

OK, here is my leanings at this point and my reasons:

Suburban Plankton
Seems to be a fan of random voting on 1st day. Voted for Dante G then switched to snfaulkner. Not much substance to posts and was suspicious of WF Tomba. No Read

Sario
First voter. Voted for** Prof Pepperwinkle**. Admits that lurkers are very often Scum and then lurks. Does not defend himself even though he has enough votes against him that he could get lynched. I get a Scum Read from Sario.

Octarine
Votes IRConfused due to gut feel and low post count (and admits that he also has low post count). Suspicious of Prof and Dead Cat. No Read

**Precambrianmollusc **
Mentions that the **Prof **may somehow know that **Tomba **and **Biotop **are Town, then goes ahead and votes Prof Pepperwinkle. Brings up the possibility that Prof, Tomba and **Biotop **are masons, then discards the idea as farfetched. When later asked why he voted for Prof, he basically says it is due to the **Prof **snuggling. This just looks to me like an attempt to get rid of an experienced player (and it might work) I get a Scum read from Precambrianmollusc.

TexCat
Supports **Astral **and **Mahaloth **early (but just justifies it with a questionable statistical proof.) Votes **Biotop **for a random reason. Shows suspicion of Biotop, **Prof **and IRConfused. Agrees that **Biotop **is giving good town advice and changes his vote from **Biotop **to Prof P. I can see two different reasons for this switch. He is town and is now convinced that **Biotop **is also town and Prof P is scum, or he is scum and realizes that **Biotop **won’t get enough votes and piles onto the Prof P bandwagon to try to get rid of him. I get a pro town read from TexCat.

Mahaloth
Votes **Biotop **due to not liking a summary post (I admit, that I was’t very fond of the post either since it attacked me :smack:) Posts some information regarding improving play. Does a soft support of Prof P. No Read

WF Tomba
Supports getting rid of “dangerous players” (specifically **Astral **and Mahaloth). He backs it up with a vote for Astral Rejection after he is called out for the post. I really think that this is more advantages to scum than town. He continues to get into it with **Astral **and by association seems to infer that **Prof **and **Biotop **may also be town though he doesn’t come right out and defend them. He then casts suspicion on Prof P and Dante G. No Read.

BioTop
Posts a bunch of filler then calls out** Prof P** for being too chummy with him and **IRConfused **for placing a vote for a stupid reason. Posts a well written rundown of his current thoughts, supports Astral, Hooker, **DeadCat **and Octarine. Does not like snfaulkner, WF Tomba, **IRConfused **and Prof Pepperwinkle. Votes for Prof Pepperwinkle. Comes back after my post and pleads with me to post my thoughts. I get a pro town read on Biotop

Dead Cat
First casts suspicion on Prof P, IRConfused and TextCat Votes for Prof P and soft supports Biotop. Continues to raise suspicion of Prof P. Posts a Last will and testament supporting** Dante G**, **Octarine **and WF Tomba then cast suspicion on WF Tomba (which way is he going here?), IRConfused, Mahaloth, **Sario **and Prof P. I get a pro town read on Dead Cat

Dante G
First casts suspicion on WF Tomba. Votes for **Mahaloth **and supports Biotop. Starts the discussion to end the day early. Comments that Prof P, Hooker, Astral, Dead Cat, **Biotop **and **TexCat **have all posted substantial info that leans town but does not actually seem to support anyone. No Read

HookerChemical
Starts with a Vote for **Sario **just due to not wanting a no-lynch. Switches vote to WF Tomba due to the “Dangerous Player” post. Switches again to **Dead Cat **for being combative and soft supports Prof P. Builds on his case for the Dead Cat Vote. Breaks down **Biotop’s **analysis and unvotes Dead Cat based on that post. He believes that Dead Cat and Prof P are town. After he analyses **Biotop’s **potential Scum list he ends up does not like Sario, **Precambrinmollusc **and IRConfused. Votes **IRConfused **for lurking and bad **Sario **vote. Defends Prof P. I get a pro town read on HookerChemical.

snfaulkner
Posts random vote for Astral Rejection switches to **Precambrianmollusc **for bad cheese puns. Brings up the possibility that Dead Cat bread crumbed that he was the Guardian. Switches to Prof Pepperwinkle after he says he smelled wolf. Switches to **Sario **after being convinced by Prof P that he is ok. (but still is a bit suspicious) I get a pro town read from snfaulkner

Astral Rejection
Votes Dead Cat and also cast suspicion on IRConfused. Switches his vote to **snfaulkner **because he did not like his vote. Apologizes and then unvotes. Later supports **HookerChemical **as probably Town and brings up still not liking Dead Cat. Votes **Sario **for lurking. I get a pro town read from Astral Rejection (lots of posts, but not a lot of substance)

Prof Pepperwinkle
Biggest poster, least amount of substance. Talks a lot but basically says 1st day is a crap shoot and he won’t really analysis until later. Votes **Sario **due to lurking. Only substantial posts are in defense of himself. Leaves a last will and testament accusing Sario. I get a Scum read from Prof Pepperwinkle.

[IRConfused]

By the way. I posted those in order of post count, from lowest to highest.

[HookerChemical]

@Octarine

Pretty much - if they’re engineering a tie, that means the two top candidates for lynching are both wolves. But I don’t see much evidence for WF Tomba’s concerns.

Not necessarily. Player WolfieMcWolf is leading with 10 votes. Player MayorVonTown is in second place with 9 votes. One wolf saves McWolf by placing a vote on VonTown, but he can’t make it a mis-lynch and the other wolves don’t follow along for whatever reason (already voting VonTown, don’t want to look wolfie, asleep at the keyboard). I don’t think a tie means both are wolves, though it certainly could.

[Prof.Pepperwinkle]

You have a strong scum lean on both me and Sario? Well, this lynching will go fine for you either way, won’t it?

[HookerChemical]

@IRConfused

OK, here is my leanings at this point and my reasons:

Yay! I’ll break some of this down tonight and think about whether my vote should come off.

[IRConfused]

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

You have a strong scum lean on both me and Sario? Well, this lynching will go fine for you either way, won’t it?

If I had a strong scum read on you, I would be switching my vote. Right now I get the strongest read off of Sario. And yes, as it stands I would be ok with either of you being lynched.

[Dante_G]

I know that I should probably be choosing between Sario and Prof. Pepperwinkle, but I think I would do better for myself if I stay firm with my vote as it is. Either one could be Scum based on the evidenceand bandwagon votes tend to make those on the wagon look bad.

[snfaulkner]

Lots of good analytical stuff to read when I got to work today. Lots of points I mostly agree with, I think. I’m eager to get some ACTUAL information though. Does the paranoia get better or worse once things start revealing themselves? I can’t tell if I love it or hate it. Probably both.

[Octarine]

@WF_Tomba

Seems to be a bit of a bandwagon building on Sario. I’m torn: on the one hand, I think getting rid of a lurky player would be good. On the other hand, players I’m already suspicious of are joining this bandwagon. Maybe Astral and Prof. Pepperwinkle are both wolves.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think Astral’s scum? He’s one of the most Town-y posters to my eyes, which in turn makes me a little suspicious of you.

[Octarine]

@HookerChemical

Not necessarily. Player WolfieMcWolf is leading with 10 votes. Player MayorVonTown is in second place with 9 votes. One wolf saves McWolf by placing a vote on VonTown, but he can’t make it a mis-lynch and the other wolves don’t follow along for whatever reason (already voting VonTown, don’t want to look wolfie, asleep at the keyboard). I don’t think a tie means both are wolves, though it certainly could.

Ah, got it - I was imagining that the wolves had enough available votes to get a Townie lynched, rather than settling for a tie. Still don’t know what makes WF Tomba concerned enough to make a post about it, though.

[WF_Tomba]

@Octarine

Just out of curiosity, why do you think Astral’s scum? He’s one of the most Town-y posters to my eyes, which in turn makes me a little suspicious of you.

Read page 2, starting at post 81. I also explained it again in post 159 (page 4).

[Octarine]

@WF_Tomba

Read page 2, starting at post 81. I also explained it again in post 159 (page 4).

Thanks.

[snfaulkner]

So this is my Friday. And I’m on the west coast. So when end of Day rolls around at 9am my time, I’m fairly certain I’ll be hungover and asleep. I’ll check in periodically on my phone for the next few hours, but unless there is some crazy turn of events, I don’t expect I’ll be chiming in anymore until after end of Day. Good luck to all, except you filthy wolfscum pukes!

[WF_Tomba]

Prof. P vs. Sario: a Recap

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

So, is there any benefit to a no-lynch first day?

@Sario

I think we established last game that no-lynch was a bad idea.

@Sario

I’ll get us started then

Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle

for bringing up the no-lynch again.

Hooker then votes for Sario. A bit later, he changes his vote (to me).
Prof. P 1, Sario 0

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Okay, my “No Lynch” question was just a conversation starter. It seems we’re all agreed, so moving on: who to lynch? Lurkers, at least for the first couple of days. But it’s too early to really know who is lurking yet, so we can either sit around and wait until somebody goofs, or follow the sterling example of our own Ronan the Accuser, and have it.

…everybody knows the real question is: is Sario scum once more?

IRConfused votes for Sario.
Prof. P 1, Sario 1

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

I was teasing Sario about that back over on the Sign-In Thread. He’s playing because of that. I have no clue as to whether or not he’s town more than anybody else.

Precambrianmollusc and Dead Cat vote for Prof. P.
Prof. P 3, Sario 1

@Sario

On the subject of the previous games:
Statistically speaking, a given player is unlikely to be scum multiple games in a row, however it can happen as I myself proved. It is much more useful to look at play styles though, as Biotop pointed out, the data set is rather small.

My vote on Prof was meant mostly as a joke, but there seems to be some momentum building against him that I want to look at before I decide whether to leave my vote or change it.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Well, I figured you were joking. PCM’s vote comes from me posting a lot and crying “lynch the lurker” too early. Dead Cat voted on me because… I don’t really know. Dead Cat, why exactly are you voting to lynch me?

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

No, not until Wednesday. I don’t see anyone who strikes me as scum, and I’m not into revenge votes. On Wednesday I’ll vote among the lurkers unless I need to cast a cover-my-ass vote.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Whew. Okay, at the moment the bottom of the post count is:

WF Tomba 5
Octarine 5
Sario 5
IRConfused 5

If I was voting now, I would skip over Octarine and IRConfused, since they are new, and new players lurk instinctively, or at least did in the last two games. Both of the others should know not to lurk by now, so I’d probably vote for Tomba, since voting for Sario might look like a retaliation vote.

@Sario

This sounds like you already know that you’re not find anyone suspicious, which seems quite scummy to me.

My vote for you is officially a serious one now.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

It’s the first day. I’m usually clueless until someone does something fairly obvious.

@Sario

I think the point he’s trying to make is that in those games some of our biggest lurkers (particularly myself) turned out to be scum

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Right. In the first game, 4 out of 5 scum were lurkers, and in the second game, 2 out of 3 scum were lurkers. Hence my enthusiasm to lynch the lurker.

snfaulkner votes for Prof. P.
Prof. P 4, Sario 1

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

A reason? sure.

In the last two games 75% of the scum were lurkers. I am not a lurker.
I’m Town. I’m “verbose and friendly”.
I am guilty of indulging in a nostalgic sentiment and forgetting to be paranoid enough.

And, due to the possibility the week may end earlier than originally scheduled:
VOTE SARIO.

He’s a lurker and he’s voted for me.

Prof. P 4, Sario 2

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Well, when you have your choice of lurkers, why not vote for the one that’s the most emotionally satisfying?

@Sario

I have read the last two pages of posts about 4 times now and nothing is sticking. :smack:

I’ll go read though again and hope that I can figure out what’s going on.

Biotop votes for Prof. P.
Prof. P 5, Sario 2

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

But in the meantime…

In the first game Sario lurked, and was Scum.
In the second game Sario lurked, and was Scum.
In the present game Sario is lurking…

TexCat votes for Prof. P.
Prof. P 6, Sario 2

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

A history of why I am in trouble, by Prof. P.

— snip —

Let me sum up: I’m still Town. Don’t lynch me Friday. Sario is either scum, or doesn’t learn from past games.

snfaulkner switches vote from Prof. P to Sario.
Prof. P 5, Sario 3

Astral votes for Sario.
Prof. P 5, Sario 4

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Good. If I die, go get Sario.

[Biotop]

Some thoughts on some of the past two day’s postings and the players who made them:

Post #217-- Astral Rejection: Good observation! I somehow overlooked this posting by Sario. It just adds to my WTF thoughts re Sario coming up later.

Post #225 – TexCat: This is a very succinct description of what bothers me most about** Prof. Pepperwinkle**. Well said. Lurking is more than just not posting.

Posts #227 & #246 – Hooker Chemical: I get a good Town feel from** Hooker **Chemical. His analysis and mine are not that different, but he clarifies a lot of of what I wrote and adds insight. I still don’t quite understand what happened with the Dante G. vote/non-vote discussion, but I think part of that problem is just my tiredness this evening while trying to work it out. I like HC’s take on Sario, and now have more suspicion of Precambrianmollusc. We can agree to disagree on SnFaulkner, which is especially OK because I don’t think either of our reads is that strong. I agree with the IRConfused analysis as well, especially as it was written prior to IRConfused’s meatier response in post #265.

Post #265-- IRConfused: A solid post. Thank you, sir. I suspect it may look now like an easy way to get Town Cred by posting a listing of what you think of others, but there’s actually merit to this. It takes effort and leaves a record. That’s a pro-Town action, it seems to me. Even if IRConfused turns out to be Scum, at least we will have this post and hopefully more like it to look back on and judge. However, I can’t understand why this does not lead to a real vote. IRConfused, please tell me you are voting for Sario now because your Scum read on him is stronger than on anyone else. Is that right? Not because he was Scum twice before, right?

Post #234—DeadCat: I like DeadCat’s post here and keeps my town read on this player. More thoughts to consider as the game progresses.

Post #226-- Prof. Pepperwinkle: I think his defense of the casual remarks and their (mis?)interpretation by players is strong. This is just a game, and it is probably unfair to strike out at a convivial player for being friendly. Thing is, Town players have good reason to feel paranoid, and Prof. Pepperwinkle did not enter the game with much paranoia. None, as far as I can tell. If this post #226 had come a day or two earlier, along with some actual Scum hunting, I think Prof. Pepperwinkle would not be in the dire trouble he is in. I also think that* if* Prof. Pepperwinkle turns out to be Town, then maybe the overwhelming feeling of being accused by multiple players led to this misplay and likely downfall. If Prof. Pepperwinkle is Scum, well then we know the reason for the play.

Players not posting – (no post #’s! ): Sub. Plankton, Precambrianmollusc, and Mahaloth. It’s not that I want to “lynch the lurker,” but come on folks, help us out! I guess I tend to post a lot and maybe your week has been even more hectic than mine. (God, I hope for your sakes that is not the case). An aside: I was talking to my wife last night about the game and my concern about players who don’t help us by doing a lot of posting and analysis. I was ranting a bit, and my wife laughed and said I was complaining about players in this game like I complain about some of my co-workers at work. My wife was right on the money. If I have come off as strident a couple of times toDay, it is because it is frustrating when I don’t feel like others are putting out a strong effort. Of course this is probably unfair of me, I don’t know what players have going on in their lives. I don’t how much they really expected to have to read and post in this game. So, I am not going to be the complaining co-worker. I am just going to ask nicely to please post some thoughts when you have the time. No pressure. Just a bit of analysis before the Day ends and we have to actually LYNCH A PLAYER AND TOSS THEM OUT OF THE GAME, THUS EITHER MOVING A MAJOR STEP TOWARDS WINNING OR LOSING. So help us and maybe we won’t lynch you too. Thanks.

This leads me to Sario. I don’t know what he has going on in his life, but come on, dude. There is a movement underway to lynch you,** Sario**. Why are you not posting any kind of a response? I can’t understand it. If you are Scum maybe you are just hoping this will all blow over. If you are Town why aren’t you trying to fit in a little time to convince us to save you. I now have dropped you down onto my suspected Scum list now. Sario and Prof. Pepperwinkle can hardly both be Scum. So which is it?

I asked IRConfused this question, and got a good answer. Sario, now I am asking you: Please give me a good reason why I should not switch my vote to you? (And do it soon. I suspect I may get called into work early tomorrow and thus will probably not be around at actual Day’s end.)

[snfaulkner]

…I was talking to my wife last night about the game…

Hehe, this made me laugh literally out loud, and then made me a bit sad. Here’s how this conversation wiuld have went with my wife…

Me: so im playing this game on the internet…
Wifey:ok, nerd. Take out the trash. Im going to the bar to watch football…

Sorry if its just fluff. But great posts biitop, wf tomba.