I was asked and I did not mind answering.
I still don’t see that strong of a case, even knowing I was wrong. Is that so hard to believe? Sometimes, folks turn out to be scum and I’m surprised. Sometimes, I am feeling strong they are scum and they end up being Town. It happens.
I’m pretty sure we don’t have a third party serial killer. The win conditions in the OP don’t mention anything about a third party.
Fair point. Vigilante it is then!
The Werewolves win if at the beginning of any Day or Night, the number of Werewolves is greater than half the number of living players.
The Town wins if at the beginning of any Day or Night, all Werewolves are dead.
Agree it doesn’t say anything about 3rd parties.
I suppose it is possible that if it is a 3rd party they could win with either wolves or town, and that doesn’t contravene what we have been told, but that does seam far fetched.
I suppose IF the 2nd killing role ( other than the wolves) is pro town, are they a one shot , a mandatory, or do they have a choice?
If they are mandatory, that can be very dangerous for town, I think there have been arguments to say a mandatory vig is almost anti town given the likelihood of killing town.
Ok, done with quick re-read, now knowing Sario and Astral are confirmed lovable townies and the “scummy scum scum” Prof Pepp confirmed filthy lying liar who lies and eats babies.
I unfortunatly don’t have the time to do a post by post recap like others have done so well, so here is just a list of post numbers the correlates with my Thinking.
94, 110, 159, 241, 248, 259 all made me sit up and grab a pen. All of them are by or about WF Tomba. Therefor for now…
VOTE WF TOMBA
I went both ways on Dead Cat many times during the re-read, but I’m left with a townie feeling right now.
Mahaloth has a few wolfpings at posts 206 and 303
Sub. Plankton got a townish lean for post 137.
I’m mostly convinced Hooker Chemical is town.
Everyone else I got no real read on yet. At least not enough to say anything.
I’ll try to be eloquent in my assertions upon completing some WRBS (Work-Related Bull Shit)
I’ll have time for more tomorrow, but for now
Vote snfaulkner
That vote switch was pivotal. At 6-2, the Prof. had a solid lead and it looked like his death was certain. Then suddenly it was 5-3 and we had a conversation.
To everyone who is voting for me: I accept that some of my activity looks suspicious. I still stand behind my stated reasons for everything.
In case you do lynch me, I’ll be trying to get my thoughts on all remaining posters committed to text.
Must be a Town vigilante. Wonder if it is a one-shot. Either way, good shot, whoever took it.
I wonder why they killed Astral instead of another player. He obviously did not indicate any kind of power since he ended up being vanilla. He’s crazy as all get-out, too, so while he makes some good points, I’m surprised they picked him first.
So does that mean we should be surprised that you are not dead ?
Of the experienced players ( you , sub plank, Texcat) it could just be scum thought Astral was least likely to be protected, for the reasons you gave.
What’s odd is that Astral was voting Sario and leaning town on The prof ( ok he didn’t buy my argument of the prof showing perfect information / snuggling) so would have been an unwitting scum ally if today came to getting the prof up on the scaffolding again. So eating him would be odd from that point of view.
I don’t quite follow why you say it is obvious that Astral did not indicate a power because of the way he flipped. It would have to be obvious to scum he was not a power based on what he posted , not on how he flipped. Could be just comprehension problems on my part , but your reasoning seams odd.
A reason could be scum had no read on a power role ( long may it continue) so just went for an experienced player they thought least likely to be protected.
It could also be they didn’t have much of a pool of experienced players to lunch on.
I meant it is now obvious he wasn’t giving any indication of having a power, so their choice would not be based on that. Comprehension problems on your part and writing problems on my part.
I haven’t had the time yet to do a thorough dissection of yesterDay’s postings with the abundant new information we have toDay. Leaves must be raked and I had a commitment with friends earlier this evening. That said, I am feeling pretty good about our chances. Our deduced helpful Vigilante(?) has done the Town a great service.
I am sure the wolves thought we would be spending much of toDay having the same old argument about** Prof. Pepperwinkle**. We’d surely have got the folksy stuff and the confused denials. We might even have actually gotten some “analysis.” Ugh. I know the debate was wearing me down.
But the wolves could not have known we would be going into toDay with the certain knowledge about their departed Scummate.
Advantage Town! ** Now we just have to make the most of it. The path from likely lynching of Professor P. to the eventual mis-lynching of Sario** has just about got to have some real Scum involvement. I don’t think they’d just sit around and let one of their goons get lynched right away on on Day 1 —if they could do something about it without leaving too much of a fingerprint. **Sario **inadvertently gave them the opportunity and the wolves took it. Does anybody see it differently? Prof. P. didn’t even have to make a “save my skin” switch. He was already voting for Sario before the tide made its drastic turn.
And if we hadn’t gotten the Vigilante break, we have been arguing back and forth about PP again toDay. Instead we can go right back and see what happened without further obfuscation about Prof. Pepperwinkle’s role. I imagine some wolves are squirming.
The choice of Astral for night kill is also very interesting. Sure he is experienced… but he was not a detractor of the Professor. Odd that, unless they were going to argue something like: “if Prof. P was really guilty then the Scum would certainly have killed one of his critics therefore…” Maybe there is something else we are missing in Astral Rejection’s postings. Let’s just see what we can find. We owe Astral that.
I will post some thoughts tomorrow after work after I have had more time to review these pages again. Nice to see so many players posting!** Prof. P **may have unwittingly done the Town a service by discouraging player lurking.
I too haven’t had time to go back through yet but here are a few initial thoughts.
Firstly, although it’s a pity I made the wrong decision in switching from Prof. P to Sario, I can’t regret this too much, as unfortunately he wasn’t being much help and it seemed like the percentage play at the time. Shame Sario didn’t have the time available to play the game which resulted in his downfall.
I’m delighted to see my suspicions of the Prof were vindicated, and it seems at least one other town-aligned person agreed with me. Which is fortunate, as otherwise I suspect I would have spent most of this day arguing for the Prof to be lynched. The fact this is no longer necessary gives us an opportunity to try and sniff out a second wolf. Sad to see Astral go as he seemed to playing a good game. What it does tell us is that if there is a guardian and they chose to use their power, they chose the wrong person to guard. Am I right in thinking that if the wolves choose to kill someone protected by a guardian (and nothing else happens that night), the moderator simply announces there has been no night kill? If so, that didn’t happen. Of course, there may be no guardian in the game at all, in which case the point is moot.
Anyway, we are three down of whom one was a wolf, meaning if we started with 4 wolves, we now have 3 wolves and 9 town. If we can keep up the same ratio over the coming days, we should win comfortably!
Now, who to lynch next? Firstly, I’m well aware (as I said at the time) that my switch from Prof P to Sario would cast suspicion on me if it were wrong, and no doubt that will be the case. I do feel it was a justified decision though, and as someone who voted for Prof P early I hope this will save others from making the mistake of lynching me.
Based pretty much on just this page of the thread, I’m getting scum leans towards PreCambrianMollusc, snfalukner, IRConfused, and (slightly, as it’s very hard to tell in my view) Mahaloth, and town leans towards HookerChemical, Dante G, TexCat, and Biotop. Not too sure yet on Suburban Plankton and WFTomba - need to do some more re-reading before forming a firmer view, let alone a vote.
how did you get those leans off this page?
I’ve been getting a strong townie vibe from Dead Cat. It has a lot to do with this post from early on Day 1:
He had just asked some n00b questions, and then he declares he’s suspicious of the players who just happened to have been posting recently. It seems very innocent and (if you’ll forgive me for saying it) adorable, like a little Dead Kitten hissing at everything that moves.
Then later, he seemed to be thinking along the same lines as me. So I have been inclined to trust Dead Cat.
I think the Astral kill makes sense for the wolves. He was a frequent poster (probably #2 at the time, behind Prof P, so #1 town), veteran player, and had everybody (correctly) leaning town. I think I voiced the most reservation and that was that he plays a solid scum game, but no suspicions. We also know that we either didn’t have a guardian or the guardian didn’t pick the most obvious person to guard. (I don’t think the section option is necessarily a bad play - it could have been self protection to preserve the power role from a “lucky” scum kill.) Prof P was a likely Day Two lynch given Sario’s flip, even with Astral around. I don’t think keeping him would have made a difference, and the next most prolific town poster (me) was also backing a non-Prof P lynch, and I’m a less experienced player by far.
We likely have a vigilante (town aligned night killer) with an unknown requirement/limit on the power use. (Thanks to PCM, who pointed out these can be limited or required abilities. It hadn’t occurred to me.) A serial killer is also possible; the rules don’t seem to prohibit it, but it seems less likely. I agree that we assume vigilante for now.
That leaves us with 12 players, 3 assumed scum, and one probable town power role.
I will come back and address this later along with a fuller analysis - hopefully later tonight.
We have time. It’s cool.
This is going to be tricky on a tablet so I’ll still stick to just this page for now, and keep it brief.
Precambrianmollusc seems to be spending more time trying to twist Dante G’s word to fit his own agenda, and talking about why certain people shouldn’t be lynched, than actually finding good candidates. Hence my wolf read on him.
I disagree with this post and that causes me to be suspicious.
This seems like a solid townie post to me.
Fluff, like a few of his other posts. Looks to me like a weak attempt to appear townie. Hence, suspicion.
Something about this just causes my wolfdar to ping gently, but I can’t really articulate it. I think it’s the “is that so hard to believe?”. It isn’t, but… trying too hard to not look like you’re trying to hard, maybe? Or perhaps totally innocent.
Another solid townie post.
As for Dante G and TexCat, I’m more convinced by the former’s explanations than the accusations against him, while with the latter I may be basing things more on feelings from previous posts, as she hasn’t really said a lot today - my mistake. Hope this helps.
Solid, timely, and on a tablet no less. Thanks for the post.
For what it’s worth, I find Mahaloth a hard read. His posts are brief and don’t contain deep analysis but they can contain good insights or ask good questions. I have a slight town lean, but with reservation.
Dead Cat is quickly moving up the townie meter for me. Solid analysis, follow-up on promises, was right in calling for Prof P to be lynched.
While I’m currently voting Dante, I’m not sold on him. I want to see more commentary on Dante G and WF Toomba, and there’s plenty of time. They both have cases to make IMO.
A very brief review of pages one and two.
very suspicious of this post, scum lean.
Perhaps reduces the suspicion on those listed?
On the other hand, this post gives me a scum lean.
Likewise - trying to get off the lynch the lurker train, and then not posting much during the following work week.
This gives me a scum lean also.
I find it hard to believe none of those listed are wolves, but we should keep this list in mind as if more and more of them flip town, it tends to make me less suspicious of the others.
This post gives me a strong town lean towards PCM.
Suspicions increasing on WFT…
These give me a slight scum lean - little content or good reasoning.