Me too.
Count me in the group of people wondering “Why PCM?” My head wasn’t exactly entirely in the game the first couple of Days, so I may have missed something along the way, but PCM had never even entered my radar.
Which may very well be the reason the Scum targeted him. A player flying under often suggests ‘Town power’, so they may have struck for that reason alone. Or they may have simply taken a random shot at someone who hadn’t garnered much attention so far, hoping that we’d spend a good portion of time trying to figure out why he was the target, instead of actually hunting for the shooter…and they just ‘got lucky’ that they killed the Doc.
There may still be something to draw from the Day 1 ‘switch’ from Prof. P to Sario; unfortunately, I thought yesterDay that all signs pointed to WF Tomba…which was a mistake. At first glance, I’d say that the Day 2 votes won’t be very telling, because it was pretty much a runaway from the beginning…but there’s a good chance that there were Scum in there, not necessarily driving the train but at least making sure that it stayed on the tracks.
I’ll be looking at folks like snfaulkner, Dead Cat, HookerChemical, and Biotop, who were the ‘middle-tier’ voters on Day 2, to see if there’s anything that merits closer scrutiny.
I missed this post in my first read-through of the Day:
Why, exactly?
Combine what with the fact that…?
So, Dante is suspicious because of some unnamed thing, combined with the fact that he did a thing that a number of Townies probably did…but there are a bunch of non-Scummy reasons that people could have done stuff, too
Maybe, but not for any of the non-reasons that you point out here.
This post sounds to me like someone who’s trying to sound like they’re suspicious of someone, but who’s hedging their bets…maybe because they aren’t really suspicious at all, because they know there’s actually nothing to the accusations that they almost, but not quite, made.
vote Octarine
In response to Biotops quote -
I did not voice any suspicion on Pepperwinkle and** Sario** because at the time I had no reason to suspect them. So why would I want to throw out a false suspicion just to fit in? I at the time did not see what all the hoopla was about in regards to either of them, so I’m not gonna join up in a bandwagon vote just because unless I see some merit behind it.
As for Octarine’s posts regarding me, well, I don’t see what he/she is getting at. I went back and forth with Precam about something trivial and Precam turns up dead and Town, so that makes me look bad?? I did things in voting that others did and that makes me look bad??
I see no real evidence from Octarine’s points and I agree with** Plankton** that they seem like a desperate attempt to look Town.
Vote Octarine
Ocatarine’s post made sense to me, even if I don’t really agree with it. PcM voted Dante yesterday, he laid out his suspicions in a post which Hooker quoted in post 484, followed by a vote for Dante. I mentioned that I thought that might be the reason that PcM was killed in post 480. I think Octarine was just continuing on from those posts in 488.
Suburban and Dante, what do you think of Hooker’s vote?
Well personally, I can honestly say that if I was Hooker and I was looking for anything I could grab a hold of that I could use to point a finger at a potential Scum, then I would probably vote for Dante(me) as well, based on the evidence he used.
However, being Town and knowing that I never meant to come off as Scummy, I still decree that the evidence is very flimsy. I mean really, the main points are revolving around a poor use of grammar. To me, that’s just not strong enough of evidence to put a vote on.
I stand by my vote, but am OK with an Octarine lynch. My back up suspect is becoming Texcat for his response to my vote, but also for his response to the Octarine situation.
Ok, finally caught up with the last few days. Sucks to lose the Doc, and certainly curious as to why only 1 night kill lastNight. I was sick and off work yesterday so I need catch up here at work before I can do a complete re-read with the new info. Expect an analysis from me later in the week, hopefully tomorrow.
Mahaloth, Why are you OK with an Octa lynch? Is your OK based solely on post 488, like Dante’s and Suburban’s appears to be?
So you understand Hooker’s vote on you, but when Octarine doesn’t even vote, but expresses suspicion of you, you think it’s enough to vote Octarine on? I’m not getting it.
I am not going to do a super long wall-of-text posting this evening because when I stay up after midnight rambling on, I end up putting out something that looks like PIS to Mahaloth, or maybe lashing out unfairly at someone undeserving of it like Suburban Plankton. I’ll try and keep it shorter and hopefully not tick anyone off too much. And maybe get some sleep.
I also hope we can still take some more time to examine what happened with the PP to Sario mislynch. Questions there are still very much unanswered, IMHO.
So this is my current thinking:
*I think TexCat is Town, though it somewhat bewilders me that she is alive and not Precam.
*I lean Town on DeadCat because of his several thoughtful postings. Yes, the Precam “wary” suspicion is in the back of my mind…but it is not in the forefront. **DeadCat’**s P.P to Sario vote switch is bothersome, but I still can’t understand a wolf making such a strong case for another wolf so early on Day 1. I certainly don’t see a wolf risking the "die on a hill” post on Day 1. Why would a wolf do that… and to another wolf? I do not think they would.
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I think Octarine is probably Town, but I do wish he would post more. I don’t really see the case made toDay against** Octarine**.** Octarine**’s suspicions of Dante G are not entirely unjustified, and the PCM night kill is murky at best. My impression of Octarine is of a new player who is somewhat shy but trying to contribute. Scum Prof P. gave Octarine and **IRConfused **a pass for being new in post #147, when he was going on again about lurkers. I suppose it is possible there is something there.
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I have no real read still on** Suburban Plankton** and wish he would post more. Most of SP’s postings do I suppose, seem Townish to me, though I think today’s case against Octarine is too much of a stretch considering Octarine is new.
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I have a neutral read on HookerChemical. His posts seem detailed and very well thought out. But something bothers me. On one hand he was too easily dismissive of the case against Prof. P. On the other hand he jumps in mighty fast with a vote on Dante **G **today. Hooker does not seem shy about voting.
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I have a neutral to slightly scummy read on Mahaloth. I don’t want to let his suspicions of me cloud my judgement, but I don’t understand Mahaloth’s not seeing any (“zippo”) case against** PP** and none against Tomba. Sure we now know the case against Tomba was wrong. But there was a fair case and it was based on both **WFTomba’**s voting and his commentary. I wish when Mahaloth doesn’t see a case others are pointing out, he would give some details as to where we are wrong. Maybe we would have “seen the light” with commentary less terse than that which was given on WFTomba.
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I have a somewhat scummy read towards IRConfused for reasons mentioned earlier. Nothing has much has changed. I hope he posts more to help clarify my opinion. Here’s one thing I would like to see: In Post #242 IRConfused tells us he is “trying to chart who seems to be protecting who.” Can you show us what you have so far on this,** IRConfused**?
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I have a scummy read on Dante for the reasons already posted. However, he doesn’t get my vote right now because part of me can imagine him playing as he has while still being Town. I don’t like the play, but I can sort of see it. And would the wolves really telegraph a fellow wolf by killing PCM? They have to know we’d go back and look at PCM’s posting and votes looking for clues to a surprising night kill. Many of us were already suspicious of Dante G before. I guess I still am.
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I was certain yesterDay that at least one of two Sario voters ( snfaulkner or WfTomba) was Scum based on the first Day mislynch. snfaulkner voted for PP first, and then changed his mind, thus turning a tide that eventually swept away Sario. I think Scum had a hand in the that turn. We know it wasn’t WFTomba. We know it wasn’t Astral. Who’s left?
For a process of elimination and a general scummy vibe I have been getting all game:
Vote snfaulkner
I guess I’m OK with it because Octarine falls in the middle for me. I have no strong read as Town or Scum. I’d rather you or Biotop die, but I can not argue much either way for Octarine. I guess I didn’t say that clear enough initially.
Thanks. Do you have any town leans?
Biotop certainly seems to be trying. He did vote for Prof P. He’s probably my strongest town lean. Do you think he’s pulled the wool over my eyes?
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Me. Ha ha. I only seem to have people I suspect as scum and people I don’t have much thoughts on either way. I guess everyone I don’t have strong thoughts on constitute my town leans.
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Yes, unless you are both scum. Or if you are and he isn’t. However, if you are town and he is scum, then yeah, he’s fooling you. Duh.
I don’t have a problem with Hooker’s vote; it seems like the reasoning is sound (which doesn’t necessarily make it correct…just sound). Hooker doesn’t really add anything to the discussion in his post, which is not ideal, but since he’s quoting someone who is no longer able to speak for himself.
Looking back, it does appear that Octarine might be referring to Hooker’s post. Or maybe he’s not. And if he is, then he’s referring to a post that refers back to a different post, so he’s basically just agreeing with a third-hand assessmemt, and then waffling about it. So my vote stands.
A brief review of Mahaloth
Day One
Mahaloth tells us that Day One is mostly luck. (155) And because of that he doesn’t mind LtLurker votes (106) or voting on vibe or feel (106, 192)
He votes Biotop for his cranky post (124), and defends himself against Dante’s vote by saying (142) “It’s just my top suspicion on Day 1. Still, your vote on me makes just about as much sense and it is not a particularly bad Day 1 vote. If you feel it, vote it. Until actual evidence starts to mount later in the Days.”
After the Prof gets up to 4 votes, Mahaloth tells us (206), “I’m hardly Prof. P’s advocate, but I don’t get the scummy vibes at all.” Later when Astral suggests that that anyone with a preference between Sario and the Prof should vote it, Mahaloth does(303).
Day Two
Mahaloth starts the day with a mea culpa of sorts(358,381). wonders why Astral was killed (387, 389). In response to Biotop’s comment, “I think we have a lot of good and suggestive information for so early in the game.”, Mahaloth says, “We do? Now, I can’t wait to see what you think we have.” (402)
Eight votes accumulate on Tomba. Then Hooker defends his position on Prof P in 435 and Mahaloth votes him for it. (436).
Day Three
Mahaloth votes Biotop for PIS, knowing that we started with 4 scum. (495)
Some thoughts on Mahaloth
Rereading, I was struck by how many times Mahaloth mentioned that we don’t have anything to go on, it’s all luck. He even questions Biotop on Day Two when he says that we now have something to go on, a dead scum. This was exactly what made me think that Prof P was scum, his insistence that there was nothing to go on and that we should just vote a lurker.
I was also struck by the two times that Mahaloth exclaimed on Day One that he didn’t see any case on the Professor. Why did he bother telling us that? He’d already said that everything on Day One was luck. He’d already said he was OK voting lurkers, he was OK voting cranky, he was OK with voting a gut feeling. Why did he think there needed to be an actual case on the Professor?
I found his vote for Hooker very odd. There was not much of an explanation or a case made, just that Mahaloth didn’t believe him. We don’t know exactly what he didn’t believe or why. Maybe Hooker sounded cranky?
Today he voted on the PIS. Hooker speculated there were 4 scum as early as post 30. Biotop speculated the same thing to get to his starting 71%. (211). So I hardly consider it PIS, but I do consider Mahaloth’s pointing it out and voting for it a scum tell. (I just wish I remembered who to credit.)
vote: Mahaloth
Biotop didn’t do the analysis I wanted him to, so I’ll do it myself and not piggyback again. Sorry this is coming later than I’d hoped, but it’s been a weird week for me.
Here’s the final list of those voting for Sario:
[ul][li]IRConfused[/li][li]Prof P[/li][li]snfaulkner[/li][li]Astral[/li][li]Dead Cat[/li][li]WF Tomba[/li][li]HookerChemical[/li][li]Mahaloth[/li][/ul]
And here’s the list for WF Tomba:
[ul][li]Suburban[/li][li]octarine[/li][li]Dante G[/li][li]snfaulkner[/li][li]Dead Cat[/li][li]HookerChemical[/li][li]Biotop[/li][li]TexCat[/li][/ul]
I think I got the order correct, and corrections are welcome. As I’ve said before, I think the suspicion profile more or less peaks in the middle. There are three people who show up on both lists: snfaulkner, Dead Cat, and me (HookerChemical). There was obviously enough suspicion on WFT and Sario to get townie buy-in for the lynch, but the three people voting for the mis-lynch both times have to be viewed with suspicion. (Yes, that means me.) I’m not saying they’re scum (I’m not) but you have to be raising an eyebrow at them. I still have a townie read on Dead Cat, but snfaulkner is suspect. Snfaulkner is pretty casual in his dsmissal of Prof P’s ability to manipulate him in Post 380 (“The Prof certainly hornswaggled me!”) and Post 425 (“I fell for the Bamboozel”). There’s nothing outright scummy about those, but they ring insincere and too quickly dismiss the issue. On the other hand, some of his clearly innocuous posts are a bit whimsical as well (Post 445 “Thanks for the count, good sir!). I’m leaning more scum on snfaulkner than I was, but I have better candidates for now.
We’re also pretty in mid-game. The PCM night kill doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It could have been the result of a Night One scum watcher who saw he was a power role, but that’s unsupported speculation. Maybe PCM was riding the right level of staying off the radar to get on the scum radar (i.e. “He’s doing well at not attracting attention. He might be a power role, so let’s kill him.”). He also has a good voting record. PCM wasn’t part of either mis-lynch.
We’re now at the point where WFT’s premature suggestion of asking why experienced players are still around is a good idea rather than a likely self-inflicted wound. I know Mahaloth, Suburban Plankton, and TexCat are pretty experienced on SDMB. I think Dante G is experienced, but on other boards. Dante G is getting plenty of suspicion, so if he’s not scum it’s clear why he wasn’t night killed.
Rereading PCM yesterday and the posts today, I’m sticking with my Dante G vote on the basis that PCM was killed for charging so hard for Dante G. I reiterate that I cannot reconcile the multiple gaffes with his posts from other games, where his posts were much clearer and didn’t appear to have such massive slips. I’ve said before that I don’t think a slip is a good basis for suspicion, but we have a pattern of sloppy wording from Dante that I’m more comfortable voting. As I said in Post 379, I thought there was a scum between WFT and Dante G. I backed the wrong lynch Day Two, but I still feel that I was right about one of the two being scum.
As I’ve said previously, I think Mahaloth’s a hard read, and as time has moved on, I’ve moved to a scummier read on him. Initially, I thought his posts were mostly targeted at getting more information out of other players without having to develop much himself, but I’m growing more and more wary of him. Rather than trying to generate information/analysis, his posts are destroying information and muddying the waters. Post 402 is almost entirely dedicated to discrediting others’ information/suspicions. Post 459 sees no reason for it to be unfortunate and asks why IRConfused feels that it’s unfortunate that WF Tomba (who IRC believes to be town) is about to be lynched, when it’s obvious why that would be (somebody believed to be a townie about to be lynched). Post 437 is a nonsensical vote against me for explaining why I didn’t buy the case against Prof P, when Mahaloth was being asked the very same question and still hasn’t offered much explanation. Post 459 does nothing to contribute to the discussion but rather dismisses a reasonable concern. Post 495 accuses Biotop of perfect knowledge when discussing the number of scum, but it was established very early that four was the most likely number of scum and several previous posts has used that as a basis for discussion. As Biotop puts it well in Post 511 “I wish when Mahaloth doesn’t see a case others are pointing out, he would give some details as to where we are wrong.” As it is, I feel his posts have muddied things rather than adding to the discussion. Right now, he’s sitting with a vote on Biotop, after he felt strongly enough in Post 437 to throw away a vote on me (meaning that there was no chance of a consensus being built to lynch me at that point). Mahaloth is rising quickly up my list of scum candidates.
TexCat, reading your post it’s clear that I’m not reading too much into Mahaloth’s posts. We’re looking at the same posts and getting similar things out (but your formatting is far better). I was afraid I was seeing the worse in a person who voted for me, but I don’t think that’s the case.
UNVOTE DANTE G
VOTE MAHALOTH
Ok, I’ve started a complete re-read…however I’m getting pulled away by life soon. So right now, here’s what I’ve got. Hopefully more later today/night…
So Day 1, I did NOT trust my gut when I smelled wolf’s breath on Prof P, and switched my vote with horrendous results (might even cause ME to get lynched)…
So Day 2, I decided TO trust my gut and voted for WF Tomba, with horrendous results…
So here we are on Day 3 and we have only one wolf carcass to claim, but only thanks to some unknown benevolent force. And we are town 4 townies, including our doctor. So I think instead of going WITH or AGAINST my gut, I’m going to follow what seemed/s to be great advice we got from the beginning…
…and so I must
VOTE MAHALOTH
for he seems to be the most experienced, what with the “let’s improve how we play mafia” writings…And also, he seems to be a bit lurkery, or was in early Days of our island internment.
Again, I still need to completely re-read everything. And once I finally do, I may have better reasoning and/or a different vote.
Ah jeeez, in the space of 20 minutes, There seems to have been a MAHALOTH wagon train leaving the station just as I was trying to do the reread and my above post…now i look totally bandwagony…