That was unexpected. My expectation was two kills, or one target that was potentially high on both the town’s list of suspicious persons and the scum list of dangerous persons. (I’m putting myself on that list based on my post count and my two votes for a mis-lynch.) I’ll probably be firing off-the-cuff remarks today but won’t get a deep analysis until later.
I find that I have no idea of what is going on.
Could the wolves have some power role who could sniff out PCM? Why would the vigilante do it? Serial killer? Something else?
Sorry to see you go, Precambrianmollusc.
Experienced players:
Is ir possible** PCM** was protecting the target of a second attempted kill? Would PCM’s death have stopped his power from being effectivet if he is killed the same night, or would the protection remain?
I’m not going to add anything here, but I’ll repost this, which is now know to have been in good faith.
VOTE DANTE G
He was my second choice the previous day.
It’s possible that PcM protected a second target. His protection would happen before any kills. It’s also possible that our vig decided to hold their fire or was only a one shot vig.
Only one kill, which is interesting. Did Scum not submit a kill? Was it Blocked in some way. Was Precam’s death the result of Scum and the Vigilante did not kill?
Precam was looking more and more Town as the game progressed, so I can’t imagine that a Vigilante would take him out. Maybe we do have a Serial Killer or maybe it was a Scum kill and the other Killing roles did not submit a pick for the Night.
I want to go back and do some more reading of Precams conversations.
Wrong thread.
Precambrianmollusc’s death/Town status certainly doesn’t make Dante look good. Combine that with the fact that Dante voted for WF Tomba (so did I, and probably other townies, but overall it’s fair to assume a higher percentage of people voting for him are wolves than in the general population), and I’m having a hard time thinking of something he could say to convince me otherwise.
To give Dante the benefit of the doubt, there are a myraid of different reasons Precambrian could’ve been targeted, and of course voting for a townie doesn’t mean you’re a wolf. Still, fairly suspicious.
I find it hard to believe that the evidence against me consists of just slight wording issues in some of my posts. I’ve played this game many times and I’ve never seen a Wolf say so many things that could be incriminating like you guys are saying that I am. Trust me, I am Town. A Townie that isn’t playing very well, but a Townie none the less.
Octarine:
Help me out. I am struggling to come up with a lot of good reasons for **PCM **to have been targeted. I don’t see the sense of it unless his role was somehow learned. What other reasons do you see as possible other than the kill relating to **Dante **?
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Sure.
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No, in my opinion. In the vast majority of games, a policy is used called “all night actions succeed unless blocked”. Otherwise, a clear order of operations/actions should have been explained in the opening.
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Who knows?
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Who knows?
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Who knows?
My guess, and this is a total guess, is that either Dr. Precam either protected the vigilante(wow, incredible luck/skill), the vigilante did not choose to kill(reasonable with so little knowledge - why N1 then?), or the vigilante was one-shot.
Out of my butt guess would lean towards one-shot being the most likely scenario, though I guess anything is possible.
Scum forgetting their kill? I kind of doubt it. They are a team and it is very common for anyone on the team to put the kill order in. Unlikely for a whole team to miss.
I’m sure there are other options/scenarios, but this is about all that seems likely.
PCM was the only person to not vote with the bandwagon both times. Maybe the wolves picked up on that and decided that he was not being swayed by there arguments. I believe that a nightkill against someone that is making a good argument against others will sway the remaining town folk to take that argument much more seriously. I am going to take what he was saying with a grain of salt and keep in mind that he may have been going down the rabbit hole and the wolfs came up with a way to get everyone else going the same way.
I think it is important during all this speculation about Precambrianmollusc, that we don’t forget that we still haven’t figured out how the vote on Day 1 went from Prof. P to Sario. I still believe there are Scum to be found there.
We were wrong about WFTomba, but that still leaves the other Sario voters. I think my mistake with Tomba was coming to the conclusion that he was Scum, and then going back and looking for the evidence. A difficulty I am finding is that just about any player can seem to be Scum, if you first assume guilt and then go back and look at their posts for proof. Confirmation bias, I believe it is called. This was poor play on my part. Best to try to find the evidence first, I think, keeping an open mind in the search. I will do better.
The Precam night kill is very puzzling to me. TexCat sums it up well in post#480. Are we meant to think one thing or another? Are we meant to think anything at all? Which wine? On the one hand, I was already suspicious of Dante, but maybe the wolves want us to go in that direction. On the other hand, Precam also says in his hefty Post #452 that he is “hellishly wary of DeadCat.” DeadCat was one of the vote-switchers from **P.P. **to Sario. I had pretty much taken to thinking of DeadCat as probable Town. Am I too hasty?
Though I don’t see how I can have it both ways, the Precam lynch makes me slightly less suspicious of Dante, and slightly more suspicious of DeadCat.
I must however, let Dante G once again know my displeasure at his refusal to weigh in on the Prof P./Sario debate when it mattered.
Dante G: WFTomba took a chance and voted. And we lynched him for it. You didn’t make a choice, and here you still are today. I am sure it is nice to be alive, but had you maybe dared to voice suspicion of Prof. Pepperwinkle, or even Sario, it could possibly have influenced the outcome of both Days. I noticed you were not on the sidelines yesterday. You were there to join many of us in the WFTomba mislynch. Of course there was no runner-up really yesterDay to worry about how you might look in choosing a side. Taking a stand is always better for Town in the long run, it seems to me. Do the right thing in the future. If you are indeed Town as you claim, please make amends to WfTomba, Sario, and the rest of us.
We are now dealing with a 33% probability that any player is Scum. That still means other players are more likely town, but there is reasonable cause for more suspicion.
A final sobering thought for Monday. We need to make the right decision toDay or this game is going to be very hard to win.
One last troubling thought before hitting the hay:
33% Scum amongst us is based on 3 wolves remaining.
Though improbable, if there happen to have been 5 wolves instead of 4 at the beginning, we will actually lose toNight if we mislynch today and the third killer (vigilante?) kills a Town player in error.
And you know this because you know exactly how many scum there are? I see you added a comment after this to clarify, but that looks like even you spilled the beans. PIS - perfect information syndrome.
**Vote Biotop
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I actually agree 3 is likely, by the way. However, you seem to know it.
**Mahaloth **, I don’t know how many Scum there are, as I have noted many times. I have been using the generally accepted likely base of 4 for percentages much of the game and did it there to emphasize what is probably obvious, that we are less able to trust others than before. 1 in 3 feels ominous to me.
Then I thought about the slim danger if 5 and what it might mean. I really don’t think there is much chance there were 5 wolves to start, but I don’t really know with absolute certainty. If there were 5 we could lose toNight.
If that sounds like PIS to you, I have no other defense.
Mahaloth, it’s Day 3 and that’s what you’re voting?
Whose theory was it that the player pointing out a PIS “slip” was more likely scum than the one who slipped? Cookies? Renata?
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Yes.
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I’m not sure. I don’t remember that theory specifically. I just thought Biotop felt awfully sure of the number, then rushed to clarify that he doesn’t know.
I’m pretty sure that he only posted the after post because he knew that others would jump on him for the “slip.” I don’t think he is a Scum that let out a secret, because I don’t personally think there is a secret. Atleast no secret in his post anyway. This is mafia after all, it’s full of secrets.
I think its a preeeeety safe bet that there were 4 Scum and now just 3. To me it would make since as a Mod, in a game of this size, to have 4 Scum and a Town Vigilante to help with the balance.
I should be able to come back and do a more comprehensive analysis later in the week, but for now:
VOTE Mahaloth
I’m not seeing a whole lot of analysis in your posts, and it seems to me you’re trying too hard with the whole “we don’t know anything” schtick - is that to cover up the fact that you do know nearly everything? You also voted for Sario. About the only thing I have in your favour at the moment is you didn’t vote for WFTomba - but you waited until he was practically already dead (i.e. well ahead in the vote count and no-one looked likely to change, especially after the fiasco on Day One which no doubt played into your hands there) and then made a seemingly random vote for HookerChemical, who most of us have a town read on at the moment. Finally, I think your vote for Biotop is based on pretty weak reasoning.
Having said that, I agree with Biotop’s earlier post that I have been guilty in this game of assuming someone to be a wolf and then looking for the evidence to make the case, which hasn’t worked out too well for us so far. I don’t think this post is another example of that, though. Mahaloth is just my prime suspect at the moment. Others who have raised my suspicion (snfaulkner, Dante G, IRConfused), while not off my hit list necessarily, do seem to have plausible excuses for what I see as their suspicious behaviour.