This is more or less what I was alluding to with my “suspicion peaks in the middle.” I think I have the peak a vote earlier in the pattern than you, Suburban, but it’s the same idea.
Me either, and I realize it’s suspect, which is why I’m glad to be on the Mahaloth train. I’d be more happy there with everybody on it.
I still have Dante near the top with IRConfused. I don’t know which I’d vote for since Dante was assuring snfaulkner that the vote against Mahaloth was a good one, which is townie (and possibly a little self serving, but that’s reasonable). Assuming Mahaloth flips scum (which seems a done deal), snfaulkner will fall further behind those two. I don’t know who my #3 candidate is, but my deduction has been off all game. My gut has been far more reliable than my brain.
Here I go again with another long post, and I hope it won’t be my only one before end of Day, but I’ve run out of time today. It’s a selection of quotes from Day One onwards that I am analysing (and in many cases re-analysing). If any of the below contradicts what I have said before, it’s because I’ve changed my mind - the below represents my current views. It only goes up to end of Day One (roughly) so far.
We now know that PCM was Town. This vote is not suspicious in itself, though it is for a weak reason, as it was very early in the game. However, see further comments later.
I did read this thread, albeit a few days ago, and to be perfectly honest I don’t think I got a great deal out of it. Now, I am aware this is a prime example of assuming guilt and then interpreting evidence in a certain way to support it, but could Mahaloth have posted this in order to seem all helpful and townie, while knowing it likely wouldn’t lead anyone to suspect him of being a wolf?
This is weak. At the time there were a few reasons to change.
This looks like weak reasoning to me as well.
Because I have a town read on Biotop and a scum read on Mahaloth, I tend to read this post as townie. That could be a mistake but Dante’s reasoning here is rather similar to my own.
Well, we now have plenty of evidence but I’m yet to see Mahaloth even attempt to make use of it.
I think this post is worth highlighting again. Of this list, we now know WFTomba and Sario were Town. It is clearly therefore in the Prof’s interest to highlight them as lynching candidates. Interestingly, he does give an “out” to the other two, so they could still be wolves that the Prof included them for future strategic reasons, or perhaps they are town if the Prof was playing a rather ‘vanilla’ wolf game. We shall see I suppose.
So, correct to suspect the Prof, incorrect to suspect Astral (Town on Town misunderstanding, we now know).
I think I may have said this before (no time to check now), but I get a bit of a ‘wolf on wolf’ read with this post. Not necessarily, of course, but it’s certainly a possibility.
This would be an interesting post for a wolf to make. I think I have already said that I believe it could still be wolf on wolf. And then, as if by magic, we have this:
How convenient! Changing vote from a wolf to a townie. Now, could be an honest townie mistake, but this is one of the crucial votes in Day One’s mislynch (yes, I know I was highly instrumental in that - see below).
Misplaced suspicion on Astral again, correct suspicion on the Prof, reasonable (but incorrect) thoughts about Sario.
This post goes a long way towards giving me more of a townie feeling towards IRConfused. OK, wrong reads on Sario (like a lot of others) and PCM, but correct on Astral and the Prof, and a lot of the above tallies with my own thoughts.
Agreed, and later proved correct, so a town lean for this post.
I’m quoting myself because this was a key moment in the switch from Prof P to Sario, and I believe I made it for the right reasons, as stated. Multiple players, including me, had asked Sario by name to come and explain himself, and unfortunately for him (and us), real life prevented him from doing so until it was too late. We then got lucky with Prof P’s death that night, so as I’ve said before I’m not too unhappy with how it turned out.
Regardless of whether you believe me, we now know this post was genuine, not a wolf jumping on a bandwagon.
This sounds genuine to me as well, but it’s hard to tell. I do have a solid town read on HookerChemical though for his well thought out posts. If he is a wolf, he is playing it very well at the moment.
Indeed.
To summarise the above, I currently believe the remaining wolves are Mahaloth, snfaulkner, and A. N. Other - but that’s just based on the first half of the thread, I now need to re-read the second half to gather further thoughts.
I don’t know if he did, or not…but I hate it when people post something like that.
Either he’s Scum and is therefore telling the truth, in which case he should be lynched…or else he’s Town and is just ‘giving up’.
In the latter case, I think there are arguments for just lynching him now to get him out of the way, and for leaving him alone and making the Scum deal with him. But either way, it puts Town in a bad position, because they have to spend time deciding what to do with a Townie, instead of looking for Scum.
If he’s Scum, then the only reason I can come up with to give himself up at this point in the Day would be to stymie further conversation; once the Town has a ‘slam dunk’, discussion tends to stop. So where would toDay’s discussion be going if we weren’t all talking about **Mahaloth **right now?
Sorry, it seems my original post wasn’t clear enough. Precamb’s death was a bad thing for Dante because Precamb was one of the handful of posters who repeatedly attacked Dante and, per Johnny’s 442 vote count, the only one who voted for him. A few examples:
Sure, it’s not enough to base a vote on - but, combined with Dante’s vote for WF Tomba, it stuck out to me. When Precamb died, I went through the last few pages and tried to asses his relationships with various posters; Dante’s seemed noteworthy enough to make a passing comment about. While I understand the confusion, voting for me solely off that post seems strange.
I’m uncomfortable that I’ve spent all this time talking about Dante because I don’t actually think he’s scum - all of the above puts him farther “wolf” on the spectrum, but not enough for me to vote for him. My post may have sounded more accusatory than intended.
With all that said, it’s pretty hard to argue with this:
I think we should continue debating tonight, because we might actually have a chance at a** double wolf lynch**. First we get Mahaloth, and if our Vigilante has another shot, we can recommend a candidate. Perhaps today can be a “two-fer.” If our Vigilante can kill again and will listen to us, then not giving him an opinion toDay is almost the same as advocating a “no lynch,” isn’t it? And “No Lynch,” we agreed, is bad.
I will post my thoughts on that score later tonight after I figure out what those thoughts are.
Agreed. We have candidates. We don’t necessarily agree who they are, but shutting down the discussion isn’t wise.
I’ve voiced my “next best” candidates (Dante G and IRConfused with snfaulkner significantly behind). I have a “town” group as well, but I’ll refrain from stating it given that it would read like a wolf kill list and won’t shock anybody. I’ll take a look again and see if I want to adjust my scum listing, but I think I’m comfortable where it’s at.
PCM was a surprise pick last night, so nobody should feel safe from the wolf night kill. If you’re holding your cards close to the vest, they won’t do any good if you don’t put them on the table. (Though if you’re an investigatory role, I don’t think toDay is the Day to reveal your findings as a claim. I suspect tomorrow we may want some direction.)
How often does such a role come up in these games? mafiascum gives the impression that it is pretty rare, and/or a bastard thing for a Moderator to do, so I’m ok with leaving my vote on him.
And as I must every Thursday, since i don’t want to look like a lurker when EOD comes around, I’m leaving work for the week soon and off to drunkenland til Sunday.
Rah! Rah! We now have another Scum player known, and the game is back to looking very winnable indeed . If our vigilante can kill a wolf tonight, we will be close to ending the trouble in Paradise.
(Note to self: STOP! Don’t be a Cloying Cheerleader!):smack:
I think we should nominate someone for our vigilante to kill, because not doing so is akin to a “no lynch” as far as I can tell. If the vigilante was “one-shot,” there was no harm done in making the suggestions.
Here are my two Vigilante kill candidates:
**
IRConfused.**
We have heard little if anything from this player in two days.** Professor Pepperwinkle **had **IRConfused **as one of his lurker posters, but one that he argued we shouldn’t really pay attention to because he (IRC )was new. **IRConfused was first to vote for Sario, but then said he became “more convinced” and kept his vote there. He said he was trying to “chart” players who were protecting other players, but never posted anything more about it. He smudged DeadCat in Post #60 for supposedly defending Sario when DeadCat **was doing nothing of the kind. IRConfused has not contributed much either toDay or yesterDay. Very little to pick through except…
He did vote for Mahaloth on Day 2 in Post#376, so I guess that is a point in his favor. Mahaloth responded in post #381. So perhaps I am wrong about IRConfuse****d. But someone has to be Scum.
**
Dante G**.
I think his surprise reaction to Mahaloth’s confession seemed genuine, but I can’t shake the feeling that other parts of his play are scummy. He misrepresents himself in post #504, where he says he had no reason to suspect either Sario or Prof. Pepperwinkle and thus did not vote. But, back in post #271, **Dante **says:
“I know I should probably be choosing between Sario and Prof. Pepperwinkle, but I think I would do better for myself if I stay firm with my vote as it is. Either one could be Scum based on the evidence and bandwagon votes tend to make those on the wagon look bad.”
That sounds to me like Dante G sees evidence against both, but doesn’t want to risk himself. Compare Post #271 with Post #504:
“I did not voice any suspicion on Pepperwinkle and Sario because at that time I had no reason to suspect them. So why would I throw out a false suspicion just to fit in? I at the time did not see what all the hoopla was about in regards to either of them, so I’m not gonna join up in a bandwagon vote just because unless I see some merit behind it.”
“I should…(271)” or “no reason (504)”… which is it? I think the first unguarded statement was the truth. Post #504 is revisionist history.
If we look for a simple explanation of the PCM night kill, it may be partly because he was voting for Dante. I am very suspicious of Dante G.
snfaulkner gets credit for voting against Mahaloth before the confession. I realize if I abandon my suspicion of snfaulkner, then I have no wolf to blame for the tide turn on day 1. I therefore keep a fair amount of doubt. Yet snfaulkner voted early for Scum Prof. Pepperwinkle and joined the wagon against Scum Mahaloth. I now can’t see killing him at this time.
Perhaps Hooker is right and we should not post whom we think are the most Towny players right now. So I have deferred my further commentary.
I voted for him last week and I don’t have anyone else that I could point to and say that they are definitely a wolf. That’s not so say that I don’t have any other suspects, but at this point nothing jumps out and screams “wolf” to me.
My current top three suspects in order are: (assuming 2 more wolfs to go after Mahaloth) Snfaulkner (the jester comment certainly looks like FUD to me) Dante G (did I miss something? Where is his vote. He knows that Mahaloth outed himself. Is he really afraid of the Jester role?) Octarine (only jumped on after Mahaloth admitted being scum. Yes, the same can be said for me but I have voted for him before)
I think that the only truly confirmed town right now is Biotop since Mahaloth has been trying to get rid of him from the start.