Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread)

[IRConfused]

On second thought, I would put Octarine first, then snfalkner, and finally Dante G.

[TexCat]

My vote Tomorrow will be on Hooker (unless the vig gets him Tonight), but I am still clueless who the 4th scum is.

My town list is Biotop, DeadCat. Dante is on the tentative town list, if Hooker actually flips scum.

That leaves the 4th scum among SNFaulkner, Octarine, IRConfused, and Suburban. I’ve gone back and forth on all of them.
Why I think Hooker is scum
[ul]
[li]His defense of Prof P [/li]His defense starts with 122 where he votes DeadCat for being combative and takes Prof’s “side”.

This is a “gut feeling” based vote. DC is coming off as unnecessarily combative, which is a potential scum tell. I don’t know if it’s the fact that I played the last game with Prof. P and get the references he’s making, but his comments weren’t scummy. They’re self-referential and meta, akin to the cheese joke running gags, but they weren’t initially scummy. It may be “good vibes” carryover from last game, but I’m siding with Prof P in this dispute for now. I’ll reread the conversation again tomorrow again and see if I still feel that way. One factor in DC’s favor is that it’s a poor scum gambit to be unnecessarily combative with a verbose and friendly poster when you’re the newcomer. “Good vibes” and history are likely to carry over to the new guy. I’ll be considering this and trying to put away “good vibes” the next time I reread.

He states again in 125 that he understood Prof’s references to the previous games and didn’t find them scummy.
In 196, he says that combative may not be the best word, but breaks down DeadCat’s posts point by point. I agree that combative is not the best word. (“Prof., if I’m wrong I’m really sorry” and “Once again, I sincerely apologise if I am incorrect but I’m just calling it as I see it” hardly seem combative to me.)
Hooker unvotes in 227. He has made two posts, one quite long and detailed, about how DeadCat is scummy. Now suddenly he’s not comfortable with it?

Looking at my limited experience, I already have examples of townies proclaiming they’d die on a hill calling out the name of another player as scum, so I’m comfortable not taking that as a scum indicator.

I wonder why the change of heart, but I suspect it is because the wagon on DeadCat was not gaining any traction and the wagon on Prof had gained. I think Hooker now is searching for another counter-wagon to protect Prof. The vote count is now Prof 6 - Sario 2 and a handful of people at 1.
In 236 his gut is telling to vote for IRC and in 246 he makes the case and votes IRC. I think the most telling post is 300.

I tried for IRConfused, but the consensus didn’t form and I’m now very slightly leaning Sario. If it’s a mis-lynch, I’m probably on the IRConfused train again.

[li]Hooker asking who an investigator should target before N1 [/li]

@HookerChemical

Dear town,

I’m interested in who you think would be most beneficial for a role like an investigator to target tonight. I think any of the top posters (me, Astral, Prof P, sfaulkner, WFTomba), would be a good target, but I’m interested if others think a low volume poster might be a better target (Mahaloth).

(Asking for a friend.)

[li]Mahaloth’s throwaway vote on Hooker D2[/li][li]Scum killing PcM and Hooker jumping on that reason to vote Dante again Today[/li][/ul]

[Dead_Cat]

Damn, I had a lot of multiquotes prepared but stupid IT policies at work now won’t let me post - this is mainly a test to see if I can use the Quick Reply box.

[Dead_Cat]

OK, this is bizarre - it just didn’t let me post a follow-up. Testing again.

[Johnny_Bravo]

**I am going to end toDay roughly an hour early so as to avoid shortening the night even further with a delay.

Reminder: I am going out of town very early Monday morning. The upcoming night phase will be ending early - possibly as early as Sunday evening. If you have night powers, start planning on getting them to me as quickly as possible.**

[Dead_Cat]

@Dead Cat

Precambrianmollusc seems to be spending more time trying to twist Dante G’s word to fit his own agenda, and talking about why certain people shouldn’t be lynched, than actually finding good candidates. Hence my wolf read on him.

QUoting myself here to show how wrong we can all be. And also to suggest this possibly strengthens the case against Dante slightly.

@snfaulkner

He (The Prof) made some good arguments (or so they seemed at the time), and I was (am) certainly a malleable mush of paranoid confusion. He took the time to make his case, as i had seen he had done in previous games (that I did not participate in) and I fell for the Bamboozel hook, line, and sinker. Props to him on that. I hope I don’t fall for such things again. Or at least as easily.

You fell for The Bamboozeling just as I did. If not harder than I did, since you claimed early on you would die on the hill before unvoting The Prof.

Plus at that point others were making good points about Sario who was nowhere to be seen to defend himself.

I’d just like to make clear that I was not persuaded to unvote Prof P on day one by his long “save me” post - it was entirely because I felt Sario was a better day one lynch. I do agree with the last line though.

@snfaulkner

Not sure I was lurking. Just letting everyone (particularly Sario) know that if there was some important things i should know before EOD they had better hurry up. I will make the same disclaimers before EOD toDay too, since I again will be probably be hungover and in bed when it happens.[/snfaulkner]Sorry, but you were lurking and to some extent, continue to do so.

@Precambrianmollusc

[Quote=WFTomba]
Well, since two-thirds of the Town is voting for me, I am curious about the thinking of those few who are not.

So, Precambrianmollusc, IRConfused, and Mahaloth, some questions for you, if you please:

1. Do you think I’m a werewolf? If you had to estimate the probability that I’m a werewolf, what would you say?

2. What do you think of the case that has been made against me? Are there any particular holes in it?

3. What do you think you will accomplish by casting a one-off vote?

Working on the thread, but briefly

1 and 2 Leaning on confused townie. being the last to switch votes to sario ,is potentially scummy, but lets face it, if following the crowd was a scum tell, there are at least 6-7 other people guilty of it today. What I saw from your ’ Hey Astral is building a case on me" posts. I see that as slightly town. I tend to think scum keep things simple. If Astral were building a case on you it would have been quite complex reasoning, so unlikely astral was scum, in the absence of other data points. If you were scum trying to smudge astral, then your case on Astral involves trying to portray him making a complex case against you, which is just waaaay to complex for scum, when all they need to do is sit back and watch town twist themselves in knots looking for wolves in the shadows. So I get a “paranoid jumpy town” vibe from that, hence not really thinking that scummy. From what I can tell the case tends to build on evaluating your other posts based on a view that you are scum.

3 - I want to vote for the person I think is most scummy, and I am working on enhancing my case on DanteG. The vote record is important, and I tend to vote for who I think is most likely scum. About the only time I would think of a tactical vote would be to avoid a no lynch situation. Other than that Ill be over here making well thought out , highly prescient cases, or babbling like a confused syphilitic orangutan with a mental agility that could be likened to the physical agility of a three legged donkey with a hard on, taped down onto its’ one remaining rear leg. Sometimes it is hard for me to determine which one I am.

I think this last point is possibly the key one - we must remember the importance of the voting record.

@IRConfused

I Unfortunately believe that WF Tomba is town. There is no reason for me to switch from my one off vote. If that makes me look bad then you can point to this post.

Well, this was proved correct and gives me a town lean, because surely if you’re a wolf this was the perfect time to vote off a townie and then just say you were confused, like all the others. On the other hand, WFTomba had a big majority at that stage, so I’m not discounting that this could be a wolf trying to look town.

@TexCat

Only one death last night. Interesting.

PcMollusc was hard on the heels of Dante. I’m thinking that’s why he was killed, but whether that means that Dante is scum or just that scum want us to think that Dante is scum is in the wine.

Good points - I’m still leaning towards Dante being scum.

@Suburban Plankton

I’m leaning Town on Dead Cat. Quite a bit of this lean comes from just one part of a single post from Day 1

[Quote=Dead Cat]
To be honest, I’m now convinced enough to say: if the Prof gets lynched at the end of the day and it’s revealed he is indeed scum, won’t that make me virtually confirmed town?

It’s not so much that the statement is accurate (because it very much isn’t), but just the fact that it was made. I just don’t see Scum making a statement like that so early in the game. Add to that the fact that Dead Cat later cast the vote that put Sario ahead of Prof P. for the lynch, and I have a very hard time seeing Scum putting that big of a target on their back.
[/quote]
I’m glad you came to the right conclusion, but I’d be interested to hear the flaw in my original reasoning. Bear in mind this was posted when I was convinced I wouldn’t change my day one vote - I accept that the fact I later did so is suspicious, but if I had not, I was only the third person to vote for Prof P (and the second “real” vote on him, because at the time Sario’s vote wasn’t a serious one, though he later made it so), and I was going after him really hard. Wouldn’t this be a very odd thing for a wolf to do so early on Day One, especially an inexperienced one? That’s the source of the comment.

And in case anyone’s wondering why I’m so keen to be “confirmed town”, as I hinted earlier it has little to do with my own survival, but rather the more people we have as ‘confirmed town’, the more likely we can lynch wolves. On the flip side, it does put a bit of a target on your back at night, but all us townies have this to some extent anyway.

Finally, Mahaloth’s apparent scum claim, 24.75 hours before end of Day, is extremely odd. So far I think the best theory is that he saw the writing on the wall, and thought his best chance was to try to shut down further discussion. I do hope so, because that means we have the wolves worried. But I don’t think it’s beyond possibility that he is in fact town, and this was his bizarre way of trying to get out of the noose. If so, it hasn’t convinced anyone (including me). I really, really hope we’re right because if not we’re in trouble. On the other hand, if we are I think we’re in a decent position, as it would (most likely) leave 6 town and 2 wolves (assuming just one townie kill tonight). If we have a vigilante who (correctly) nails Dante G as well, great.

In summary, I think the remaining wolves are:

Mahaloth
Dante G
snfaulkner

[Dead_Cat]

Shoot, wasn’t able to preview that last post so apologies for the formatting error - hopefully it’s still useful.

[TexCat]

I think Dante was being setup.

[TexCat]

@Suburban_Plankton

Scum can and will bus each other early on Day 1; don’t discount anyone on that account.

He’s right. I’ve seen him do it.

[Mahaloth]

Kill Hooker, Biotop, and Texcat next.

(I thought Night was noon yesterday). My bad!

:awkward:

[Johnny_Bravo]

*It was strangely anticlimactic.

“We think you’re a wolf,” we said.
“No,” said Mr. Mahaloth.
“Okay,” we said. “But we really do.”
“Yes,” said Mr. Mahaloth. “Good job.”

We took him to the gallows, and he came along without a struggle. We placed the noose around his furry neck. Possibly somebody should have noticed earlier that he’d always been rather hiruste, but I suppose nobody wished to be uncharitable.

“You really have done well,” he assured us, smiling a sharp, pleasant, toothy smile.*

Mahaloth, a Werewolf Roleblocker, has been killed.

Day 3 ends here. Players with night actions may PM me with their decisions. Players with night communication may communicate. toNight will be ending earlier than normal, but I will give plenty of leadup as to whether it will be Sunday evening or Monday morning.

[Mahaloth]

@Dead_Cat

Mahaloth
Dante G
snfaulkner

No way. Me? We have a genius! And he got Dante and snfaulkner too!

[Mahaloth]

@Suburban_Plankton

In **Mahaloth’s **‘defense’, his playstyle is often rather laissez-faire, so his apparent apathy here isn’t out of character for him. The tone of his last few posts (“No! Boo!”, “Hello?”) *does *seem out of character…but I’m not so sure a Scum Mahaloth would do that…

I did. Still, I am not apathetic. I just don’t post every single thought. I’d compare myself to BillMC, only he’s better at the game than me. I wait, think, and post.

I don’t even change my gameplay-style from Town to Scum.

[Dead_Cat]

Thanks for the sarcasm :). I maintain that until a few minutes ago, we had no way of knowing if your apparent scum-claim was a mistake or some weird strategy. I suspect an extra 24 hours wouldn’t have changed the final result, but it sure would have been interesting.

The main thing is, we killed a wolf power role - excellent! Can’t wait for dawn, assuming I survive. Next Day will be very interesting, I think. Night all.

[Dead_Cat]

P.S. Loving Johnny’s sarcastic storytelling!

[Dante_G]

Wow, Mahaloth was Scum??? Did not see that one coming!

[HookerChemical]

That was a weird end of day. No surprise on the result of the lynch, but timing was all messy (Mahaloth’s confession, early EOD). So the minor bonuses were the scum power role and the narration.

[Dead_Cat]

Well, if you’re ever going to have an early end of Day, toDay was the time to do it - not much chance of any late vote switching!

[Mahaloth]

@Dead_Cat

Thanks for the sarcasm :). I maintain that until a few minutes ago, we had no way of knowing if your apparent scum-claim was a mistake or some weird strategy. I suspect an extra 24 hours wouldn’t have changed the final result, but it sure would have been interesting.

The main thing is, we killed a wolf power role - excellent! Can’t wait for dawn, assuming I survive. Next Day will be very interesting, I think. Night all.

I agree. I was the obvious lynch.

[Johnny_Bravo]

*When we first came to this island, we were confident that we would be quickly found and rescued. Game was plentiful, and we took little stock in such things as ammunition. We ate heartily for the first few months and, by the time we had divested ourselves of bullets, we had learned enough to continue to hunt with such tools as we were able to make for ourselves.

Thus, we had two surprises when we awoke this morning. A body, yes, but that is almost to be expected at this point. More shocking was the gun lying next to it. We had thought such things beyond useless.

Then again, perhaps we were right.

TexCat, a macho 2-shot town vigilante, has been killed.*

Day 4 begins here. Day will end on, probably, Friday morning, 11 EST. Please do not count on me for posts or vote counts, though I will try to follow along and post via phone or from a hotel room if something super serious comes up (PM me if that happens).