Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread)

(Part 3 of 3)

Suburban Plankton

After three Days of game play and Three weeks of actual play, I find I have no better read on Suburban Plankton than when we started. This is particularly troubling as SP has not been lurking as of late. There was an abbreviated case and vote against Octarine, and a good bit of discussion about whether TexCat could have used her second shot. But I agree with** Hooker**. There hasn’t been a lot of Scum hunting.

Why I think Suburban Plankton might be Town:

• I like Post #537, which came just as Mahaloth was about to confess (Post #538). I don’t agree with the assessment of Hooker, but I have been guilty of the “Rah Rah!” I also agree that Day 3 is a bit too early to wonder why experienced players are still around.
• I find it interesting that Mahaloth’s confession is in a response to Suburban Plankton saying that his tone of late was out of character. Would wolf Mahaloth confess in reply to wolf
Suburban Plankton
? Maybe… but that doesn’t seem so likely to me. Why confess in response to any one poster at all?
• He voted for **snfaulkner **on Day 1, the player I now suspect most of being a wolf.

Why I think Suburban Plankton might be Scum:

• Other than the case against Octarine and His lengthy Post #537, I don’t see a lot of Scum hunting. Technical information is helpful, but SP is, I believe, an experienced player who could add a lot more than he already has.
• I didn’t notice until Hooker mentioned it that SP did not vote for Mahaloth? I wonder why not? I don’t think it is necessarily a Scum tell, but it is notable. I await an explanation.
• **Hooker **also notes that SP didn’t post again after worrying that Mahaloth’s confession was meant to stifle conversation. So why did it stifle your conversation, SP?

Lean: Still No Read

+++++

snfaulkner:

How can a player have the third most posts in this game, but have so little content? I feel as if snfaulkner has been lurking, so it very much surprises me that he is number 3 behind Hooker and the loquacious** Professor P**. in post count.

Why snfaulkner might be Town:

• He voted for Scum** Professor Pepperwinkle** in Post #127
• He voted for Scum Mahaloth in Post #519. This comes just 20 minutes after** Texcat** and Hooker made their substantial posts accusing Mahaloth.

Why I think **snfaulkner **is scum:

• Both his votes above for wolves come with the caveat that maybe he will change his vote later. However, his post #345 where he votes for WFTomba contains no such out clause.
snfaulkner’s vote switch on Day 1 was absolutely key in turning the tide from Prof. Pepperwinkle to Sario. He claims it was Prof. P who convinced him. He also cites Astral’s commentary on** Sario and Sario’s unfulfilled “rereading” promises. This from snfaulkner, the player who has been promising reread commentary all game. But rarely delivering.
snfaulkner never really seemed to be behind his early vote on Prof. Pepperwinkle, calling it a “panic vote” in Post #176. In Post #188, he says “I’m open to suggestions…give me a reason to vote elsewhere.” And he is asking that of
Prof. P**. himself. Hint: snfaulkner, if you ask the person you are voting for to give you a reason to vote elsewhere, they probably will.
• The “Jester” thing (Post #553) is just weird. It struck me odd the first time I am read it, and more so now. I don’t want to try and read anything into Mahaloth’s return commentary, but why did this come up at all? I still don’t know whether** snfaulkner was being serious here or not, though in Post#612 he seems to claim he was.
• In post #611, snfaulkner says he has been “re-re-r-e-re-re- reading this thread.The “snuggles” spreadsheet is no more. We do get more promises of “more to come.” We have been getting those promises all game. In Post #618, in spite of all that “re-re….reading” he decides to vote based “ONLY on lynch the experienced” and votes for Dante G. With “more to come…” This is a crummy reason to vote for Dante G, because I don’t think anyone would have expected Dante to have been night killed at this point— which is why one lynches the experienced later in the game. They ought to have been night killed but were not. Did snfaulkner not get that from rereading as it has been discussed several times?
I have been looking for an explanation of what happened on Day 1, and speculating that a wolf other than Mahaloth just about had to be involved in the mislynch switch. I also suspect
Mahaloth** might not have been so quick to confess if he didn’t have a wolf already in there voting for him. I have seen more excuses for not posting and more promises for “more to come from snfaulkner than all other players combined. Unless there is something “more to come” of real substance my vote is this:

Vote: snfaulkner
As I write this **snfaulkner **continues to make his cases. So far he is concentrating on voting for the experienced, which I can’t for the life of me see any sense in at this time. He seems to think we suspected and lynched **Mahaloth **because he was experienced. Huh?

[QUOTE=Biotop;18871337
• Both his votes above for wolves come with the caveat that maybe he will change his vote later. However, his post #345 where he votes for WFTomba contains no such out clause.[/quote]

Day1 I was very unsure of myself, which is why I was convinced to switch my vote. which turned out to be wrong.
Day2 I stood my ground, which turned out to be wrong.
Day3 My vote was based only on someone else’s idea that I was unsure about, turned out to be right. Tho with only one data point, I’m not sure if i was right for the right reason or dumb luck.
ToDay I am trying to combine the “good advise” which worked (maybe) with more sleuthing. Sleuthing that I am unsure about. I give the “might change my vote” clause when I am unsure, which is most of the time.

I’ve addressed this today above and before.

I thought it was a valid question. Especially being new to the game. Why would someone confess to being a wolf? I did some research and I discovered the Jester thing as a potential reason. Now, did I actually think he was a Jester? Ultimately no, that is why I didn’t switch my vote.

I agree, which is why i gave the big “HOWEVER”, because there was more investigation to come.

This is a good point. All of my deductions today have been based on vote orders and experience. And i admitted as such. Which is why there is still more to come once I put everything in context.

Either you believe I’m an incompetent boob rookie town, or a genius newbie mastermind wolf. Either way I suppose lynching me helps the town. I’m doing the best i can with the time I have to help root out wolves.

No, I seem to think I suspected and lynched based on experience and it seemed to work, sorta…kinda…a wolf was killed that I voted for finally. I’m trying to hone my technique out loud so you can see my thought processes, which I admit might not make sense to anyone, because it barely does to me.

I’ve played Mafia once. I’ve played other hidden teams games once on message boards (The Resistance). I’ve played hidden team games dozens of times face to face. I think you have the others correct or close to correct.

Noted. I used to be a huge gamer until about 2000, then stopped cold turkey. But I’ve never ever heard of this game, in face or online until a couple months ago. Oh well, I seem to be making a hash of it. But it’s still fun!

You know what really bothers me, snfaulkner? I have spent all day putting these thoughts together. I believed you were the strongest candidate for Scum going in toDay, and I made my commentary based on that. I can’t see how you have come to the conclusions you have reached if you have been rereading and rereading. I think a wolf had to be involved in the Professor P. mislynch. You have been giving off Scum vibes to me all game.

So what really bothers me? I went to bed after my last post and read your Post #622 comments on my phone while rubbing my dogs head as he slept between my wife and I. Then I reread your comments again. Sigh.

For whatever reason I believe you. That’s what bothers me.

Unvote snfaulkner

Vote Dante G.

You believe I’m town? Or you believe my admittedly shaky reasoning for voting Dante G?

I like to think I’m good at defending myself, because that is the ONE thing I KNOW in this game, that I am town. But man, I’m having a tough time of being the accuser.

I must admit that when I went to bed last night (around 10pm GMT), still waiting for Biotop to complete his thoughts, I was beginning to worry we wouldn’t have enough evidence to go on toDay. So it was great to wake up to a whole slew of analysis by Biotop, Hooker, Octarine, and snfaulkner - thanks guys.

Obviously I can’t answer for Biotop, but i find myself agreeing with a lot of his posts. As you know, I share his suspicion of you. But I also agree with his most recent post. I don’t think you are going about scum hunting the right way, but at least you are trying. As a rookie myself, I did exactly the same things as you Days 1&2 (flipping on Day 1, which was wrong, and standing firm on Day 2, which was wrong). The main thing that convinces me (for now) though is Hooker pointing out that you voted for Mahaloth before his confession, which I had missed in my earlier analysis. I tend to believe you when you said you hadn’t seen the two posts just before your vote at the time you voted, due to the timings. Regardless of that, I think it would be an odd thing for a wolf to vote for another wolf power role rather than make an alternative accusation, especially when there are a few lurkers that could be candidates. Therefore:

UNVOTE snfaulkner

[COLOR=“Blue”]VOTE Dante G[/COLOR]

As others have said, I’d still like to hear more from Suburban Plankton, and Dante himself.

Ok, well, in regards to Faulkner’s recent posts and Biotop and Dead Cats recent changes towards voting for me, let me a few things.

First off, we have the fact that Falukner’s vote for me is based mainly on the notion that I am an experienced player. That is true, I am an experienced player, as are others in this game, so why me in particular? Is it because of my play style sounding more cryptic than Town? A fair assessment. I have explained numerous times that the mafia games on The Dope are played a bit differently than the games I was used to. Dopers are way more analytical and thorough, relying only on the players posts for information. The board I am from played games more for the fun of the story and the mystery of who was who. The mod dropped subtle hints in the narrative about the nights activities and Role Claiming was discouraged and rarely done at all. I can honestly tell you that the way alot of players here post and requote other players with long well thought out posts - that is something you will probably never see from me. Thats just not my style, sorry to say.

Something else. Snfaulkner drops his vote for me and gives his reasons, again, the reason being mainly because Iam experienced. Soon after, Biotop and Dead Cat both change their votes to me. Stranger still is the fact that both of them had been voting for Faulkner before he dropped my name. Now I’m willing to bet that of these 3 players, Bio, Dead and Faulkner, one of them at least is Scum. I’ve already got my vote going for Hookerchemical, but I think I am going to change it.
Unvote HookerChemical

Vote Snfaulkner
Besides the fact that I don’t trust his logic, there is the little gem he posted in post 619. In speaking of my vote patterns he says :

Big thing that stands out to me is that we have no confirmation that Octarine is Town. Aside from Octarine himself (if he is Town), the only ones that would know who is Town are Scum. So why would Faulkner say that about Octarine as if it’s known??

Oh and here is a Vote Count, since our Mod is away …

Dante G = 4 (Dead Cat,Octarine,snfaulkner,Biotop)

snfaulkner = 2 (HookerChemical,Dante G)

Your reasoning for voting for Dante is certainly wrong. I just think you sound like a new player who is struggling a bit.

I am not voting for **Dante ** based on your reasoning, but on mine and that of others who have been posting. Try rereading this thread again, because all that rereading is something I don’t really believe you have been doing, at least with critical thought.

Dante, this is a fair point. In the cold light of day I may have to reassess again. I have not been making my best decisions at midnight during this game.

I will be at work today and thus only able to check in by phone. I hope our two non-voters will weigh in.

Dante, I agree with a lot of what you just posted, but like Biotop I am voting for you because you are currently my top scum candidate, not because I was swayed by snfaulkner’s arguments. What snfaulkner did (in his recent posts and his vote for Mahaloth) was give me enough reasons to not vote for him, and you (Dante) were next on my list. At the moment, that hasn’t changed. If you die and flip town, I’ll go after snfaulkner next Day if I can. If you die and flip scum, I’ll be hunting among Suburban Plankton, Octarine, and IRConfused for the last (hopefully) remaining wolf. If you (Dante) and snf both end up being town (which seems very unlikely to me given the current evidence, but you never know), I agree that makes me and Biotop look bad, but I know I’m town and I have strong town feelings on Biotop. Nevertheless, I don’t have anyone as confirmed town at this stage, it could be that those who I believe look very town (and have consistently done so since the start), namely Hooker and Biotop, are in fact wolves playing a very good game. I am itching to find out, actually - I think there is a wolf among us who is playing a very good game and could yet triumph almost singlehandedly.

By the way, end of Day is in a little over 24 hours, so if anyone wants to confess to being a wolf, now is the traditional time to do so :).

This is a good observation. I had initially focused on the people who were collecting votes as the ones that **Mahaloth **was trying to deflect attention from, but it could just as easily have been anyone else, as well…and if we believe Mahaloth when he says he forgot then EoD was (and there’s really no reason not to), then it may all be a moot point anyway. And anything game-related that he said after his confession should be ignored completely.

I’ve never liked the “even if they’re Town, we’ll get information out of their lynch” argument. Every time I head it, it sounds to me like the person saying it is trying to manufacture a reason why their vote was ‘good’ for when their target turns up Town…which smacks of PIS.

Originally I hadn’t voted for Mahaloth because I didn’t have a particularly strong Scum lean on him; his confession caught me totally off guard. At that point, I didn’t immediately switch because I was still trying to figure out whether he was really ‘confessing’, or if he was just a frustrated Townie who was ‘giving up’. Then I was away from the game for a while, and by the time I got back the vote was no longer in question. And at that point, other than the confession I still didn’t have a strong Scum lean on Mahaloth, so I saw no reason to vote for him; my vote certainly wasn’t needed to secure the lynch, and it would have served no purpose for me to vote for him just because everybody else was.

As for my Scum leans at this point…that’s where I’m heading with this post (and perhaps the next one or two)

It’s already been pointed out by others, but this is a really, ***really ***bad basis for voting.

This may be a very good catch…
I’m going to post this now just to get something out there, and be back in a few minutes with more thoughts and a vote

I went back and looked over my own posts in this game, to refresh my memory of what I might have been thinking weeks ago. A few posts stood out for me.

A couple mid-game conclusions:

I still think that I was right about the WF Tomba/Dante G discussion…and since Tomba was Town, that would make Dante Town as well.
I voted for snfaulkner way back on Day 1 because of a preponderance of cheese-related posts. Others have mentioned recently that although his quantity of posts is high, the quality still hasn’t improved since then. That, combined with the possible slip that Dante pointed out, makes me lean Scum on snfaulkner.

I was leaning Town on Dead Cat earlier, based in large part on the way he acted on Day 1. Now I’m not so sure.
He placed the go-ahead vote on Sario on Day 1.
He voted ‘with the crowd’ for WF Tomba on Day 2 (his vote made it a 5-2 contest).
On Day 3 he placed the first vote on Mahaloth, which was only the third vote of the day, and then did not post again after Mahaloth’s confession, when the vote stood at 4-2. If he had been bussing Mahaloth early in the Day, then he would have found himself caught at that point with no way to change his vote.
Here in Day 4, he started out with a vote on Dante, but with the “if he flips town that could give us a fair amount more information” caveat. Then he switched his vote to snfaulkner, with the " I reserve the right to change my mind later in the Day" caveat. And then after Dante G picked up a couple of votes, he exercised that right and switched back.
So based on voting history and patterns, I’m now leaning Scum on Dead Cat.
So the question before me now is whether to vote for **snfaulkner **and create a tie, or to vote for Dead Cat as a one-off.

Right now, the stronger lean is on Dead Cat, so that’s the way I’m going to go. I’m assuming that mine will not be the last vote cast toDay; hopefully what follows will help me to know if my suspicions are correct.

Vote Dead Cat

Was my initial response to Octarine incorrect? I think the confession pulled only one vote off snfaulkner and none off Dante, and it would have been trading a power role for (presumably) a vanilla wolf. If I have the timeline wrong, let me know where I’m off.

I disagree with a lot of this, but I find it plausible. As has been mentioned before, this game is hard!

Ok, I think my usefulness is probably at an end. I hope that what I have to say will at least help clarify the situation for someone.

If we miss-lynch today, we will be down to 4 – 2. Technically winnable by town but not great odds. I have been lurking intentionally. I had high hopes of being able to give out enough info this week for a win but I chose unwisely this weekend. I am just going to throw out what I know and hope it’s enough.

Week 1 investigation: Mahaloth is a werewolf

Week 2 investigation: Dante G is town

Week 3 investigation: snfaulkner is town

I also know that there is an Alfa Wolf that will investigate as town.

At least one of the two people we are currently voting for is town. They both may be town.

I am currently leaning toward Dante G being town and snfaulkner being Wolf.

I am hoping that this info will be enough to tip the tide to Town. Although there is currently no evidence that we have any Masons, I am really hoping that we have some and that this info will make it obvious to them who the remaining wolves are. At this point, I am almost certainly going to be night killed this weekend. Looking back, I probably could have played this differently, but I think if I waited any longer to claim (assuming I made it thru this weekend) I would be less likely to have a positive effect on the outcome.

Detective IRConfused
the Town Cop

Hmmm, well, IRC, do you have a vote to go along with your evidence?

One thing that stands out to me in your investigations was the fact that all the players you checked out are either A) a player we already know the status of - Mahaloth and B) the 2 players on the chopping block - me(Dante) and snfaulkner.

This strikes me as interesting, anyone else??

I don’t have a problem with the targets that **IRConfused **has claimed. All three were plausible given the collective suspicions of the Town. And he did vote for **Mahaloth **on both Day 2 and 3, so that lends credence to his claim that he knew Mahaloth was Scum.

Also, this post does read as defending Dante G (this was from early on Day 3, after he would have received his Night 2 results)

Of course, it’s fairly easy for Scum to fake a Cop claim, because they have the benefit of hindsight in selecting their past targets, so perhaps I shouldn’t read too much into that.
What puzzles me more is the fact that he has apparently decided that **snfaulkner **must be the Alpha Wolf despite his investigation This post was from last Night:

OK, he suspects snfaulkner, which is why he investigates him last Night; no problem there. But he also claims to suspect Dante G, who by his admission he had already cleared on Night 2. Unless he thinks Dante G is the Alpha…in which case he shouldn’t now suspect snfaulkner…

So we either have a Town Cop who’s so paranoid that he refuses to trust *any *of his investigations, or we have Scum making a false claim and failing to put together a coherent case. But why would Scum make this particular fake claim at this time?