Perhaps he’s living up to his name??
UNVOTE SNFAULKNER
So we have a set of candidates where I feel we’re finally win/win for town and we get a role claim that indicates that it’s not win/win and is likely lose/lose. Damnit. IRConfused was my distant third candidate, and if the claim is true, that’s also wrong. If my scumdar is that far off, Dead Cat must be scum*. I’m unvoting while the claim is vetted, but I think it adds up with the exception of the quote from IRC from yesterday listing snfaulkner and Dante as suspects. (Though at the time only Dante had been investigated and he was listed third when there are presumably only two scum to list.)
IRConfused, how do you know there is an alpha?
*This is a joke and should not be taken seriously.
I was given the information that there was an Alpha in my role info.
Why did I add **Dante **to the list from yesterday, it was certainly paranoia on my part. I know that either one of my town investigations could be the alpha (and of course neither is also a possibility.) If I had seen all of the posts from this week prior to posting I would have left him off. If both of them are actually town, then I would suspect that at least one of the wolves would be one of the two that started the voting this week. Yes Hooker, I am still looking at you and Dead Cat. In fact, you unvoting **snfaulkner **actually makes me even more suspicious. I have had a town lean on you from the beginning but now I am starting to lose it.
What is it about this game and Thursday afternoon?
I don’t have time to do anything right now related to this game. I’ll post thoughts and probably a new vote when I get home.
If I am alive, could we not do this Thursday (Thanksgiving) next week?
The odds that both of my town investigations are actually town is almost 3/4. I can’t vote for either of them right now. I don’t have a good alternative right now but I will cast my vote tonight along with my reasons.
How exactly do you reconcile that statement with this one you made just a few hours ago? What accounts for your change-of-mind on snfaulkner?
Ok, I’m back in the office. And there are certainly lots of interesting stuff going down. First off, let me address this:
Others have pointed this out as well. And I have to say yes, I know this. It is bad and certainly incomplete as I have yet to take my analysis in context with what people are actually saying. It was steps 1 and 2 of 3. Step one was the experienced thing, step 2 was the vote record thing. Step 3, which i hope to do a sufficient amount of today is contextual analysis.
However, with IRC’s investigations revealed, that could certainly throw a wrench in my plans. So for now:
UNVOTE DANTE G
I am just quoting odds here, not my feelings.
Here is the voting, Night killing so far:
Now updated with proper color tags for TexCat, and assuming IRC’s investigations to be legit…And to be fair, even tho I know I am town, I understand others may still have doubts. So I am putting myself and Dante G in Purple on the off chance the he is the Alpha. I intend this list to be used by everyone.
Day 1
Sario Lynched - 8 votes: (IRConfused 55)(Prof. Pepperwinkle 191)(snfaulkner 237)(Astral Rejection 245)(Dead Cat 284)(WF Tomba 288)(Mahaloth 303)
Prof Pepperwinkle - 4 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Biotop 211)(Texcat 218)
IRConfused - 2 vote: (Octarine 160)(Hooker Chemical 246)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 127)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (Dante G 129)
Night 1
Astral Rejection
Prof. Pepperwinkle
Day 2
WF Tomba Lynched - 8 votes: (Sub Plankton 372)(Octarine 377)(Dante G 378)(snfaulkner 384)(Dead Cat 404)(HookerChemical 407)(Biotop 427)(Texcat 433)
Dante G - 1 votes: (Precambrianmollusc 365)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (IRConfused 376)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 386)
HookerChemical - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 436)
Night 2
Precambrianmollusc Doctor
Day 3
Mahaloth ROLEBLOCKER Lynched - 7 vote: (Dead Cat 500) (TexCat 516)(HookerChemical 518)(snfaulkner 519)(Biotop 549)(Octarine 550)(IRConfused 560)
Octarine - 2 vote: (Suburban Plankton 503) (Dante G 504)
Biotop - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 495)
Night 3
TexCat Macho Vigilante
I think it’s 2/3 (assuming 2 scum). There are seven people who are not you, but you know you didn’t investigate the vanilla wolf, so there are six people to consider. One is the alpha, so the chances of two non-alpha investigations are (5/6)*(4/5). It’s not a big difference, but worth considering.
Sorry, I’m a SQL programmer, not a statistician. I forgot to remove myself from the counts I had before I did the percentages. You are correct.
I’ve fixed my vote on Day 1. I’m not eager to highlight it, but I made it. BTW, these are great presentations.
Day 1
Sario Lynched - 8 votes: (IRConfused 55)(Prof. Pepperwinkle 191)(snfaulkner 237)(Astral Rejection 245)(Dead Cat 284)(WF Tomba 288)(Hooker Chemical 297)(Mahaloth 303)
Prof Pepperwinkle - 4 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Biotop 211)(Texcat 218)
IRConfused - 1 vote: (Octarine 160)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 127)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (Dante G 129)
Night 1
Astral Rejection
Prof. Pepperwinkle
Day 2
WF Tomba Lynched - 8 votes: (Sub Plankton 372)(Octarine 377)(Dante G 378)(snfaulkner 384)(Dead Cat 404)(HookerChemical 407)(Biotop 427)(Texcat 433)
Dante G - 1 votes: (Precambrianmollusc 365)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (IRConfused 376)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 386)
HookerChemical - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 436)
Night 2
Precambrianmollusc Doctor
Day 3
Mahaloth ROLEBLOCKER Lynched - 7 vote: (Dead Cat 500) (TexCat 516)(HookerChemical 518)(snfaulkner 519)(Biotop 549)(Octarine 550)(IRConfused 560)
Octarine - 2 vote: (Suburban Plankton 503) (Dante G 504)
Biotop - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 495)
Night 3
TexCat Macho Vigilante
I caught it because I was looking at the odds for myself. It’s part of the reason I unvoted snfaulkner, which will be spelled out shortly.
Ok, Let me try this again…now dumping entirely the notion of experienced player nonsense…But still based on Voting Records and IRC’s info.
So let’s start with IRC since I’m basing a lot of my thinking on his investigations. I believe his reveal. And I think his voting record confirms this. He was the only one to vote Mahaloth on Day 2 after he followed him Night 1. Could he be lying and retroactively fit in lies? Sure, but to me it seems unlikely. So he is Townie town town in my eyes. I thank him for his service and his reveal.
Next up, Dante G. I’m willing to give him that 2/3 chance the he is town. Nothing in the voting record is jumping out at me to raise or lower those chances however.
Hooker Chemical. Your voting record/timing against Mahaloth on Day3 (and him against you on Day2) Makes me pretty certain you are town.
DeadCat. You voted them same as I did everyDay. I’m not sure what that means exactly given my horrid decision tree…but your early vote on Mahaloth on Day 3 makes feel you are town, tho perhaps not by as much as Hooker C
Sub Plankton. Your voting record seems strange. You didn’t jump on any bandwagon, tho you were the first to vote for WF Tomba. You also didn’t vote for Mahaloth even after the confession. With just that, I have no read to a bit wolfen. But if I now consider the fact you are experienced, I think that might make me lean a bit more wolfen…certainly someone I need to apply my planned contextual analysis to today.
Biotop. You held your vote on Prof. P Day 1, seems pretty townie. Days 2 and 3, you were on the tail end of each lynch…could go either way there…leaning town, but pending contextual analysis.
Octarine. Day 1 and 2 you had early votes on now confirmed townies. Day 3 you piled on Mahaloth late after The Confession…by itself, could go either way. But with Day1/2 voting record, it seems pretty wolfen…
SO, pending further contextual analysis of the last three candidates after lunch, I’m going to…
VOTE OCTARINE
but Sub Plank is my second choice…
Unvoting snfaulkner is the right thing to do. Assuming two remaining scum, there are three possibilities.
- The case is correct as presented on its face. That is, IRC is the town detective and the investigations have been accurate. In this case, unvoting snfaulkner is correct.
- IRC is scum making a fake claim in order to rescue scum. Dante lead the voting at the time of the claim, 4-2 ahead of snfaulkner, so if it’s a rescue, it’s for Dante and my vote on snfaulkner is wrong.
- IRC’s claim is legitimate, but the alpha wolf has been investigated. By the odds, there’s a 40% chance one of them is the alpha and 20% chance its snfaulkner. (The odds are different here than in my Post 650 to snfaulkner because I’m counting the fact that I’m town here but was not for his odds.) Even given that one of them is the alpha, the odds are better of finding a wolf randomly among the remaining four players (25%). Now, the odds are not a perfect reflection of the situation because Dante and snfaulkner were investigated for suspicious activities, but odds are a place to start. I think this is the least likely scenario, but it’s possible. In this case, unvoting snfaulkner may be the wrong thing, but it is playing the odds assuming I can find somebody I think is scum among the remaining candidates.
If the alpha was investigated and reported as town, we could be in a world of hurt. If the investigation holds up, we know there’s a wolf among me (HookerChemical), Biotop, Dead Cat, Octarine, and Suburban Plankton. For now, looking there is playing the odds. If we hit a vanilla wolf there, we can toss out the investigation results and back to the regularly scheduled paranoia. If we hit the alpha in the course of investigating those people, we’re in a very good position because we can practically confirm three town.
Thanks for the fix! and I’m glad they help.
So who’s the most likely scum now that my list is blown up? My list of potential suspects is limited to Suburban Plankton, Dead Cat, Biotop, and Octarine. It’s practically a given that a case against any one of those people will be weaker than the case against any of my previous candidates, but not voting would be a mistake and leave the door open for scum.
Suburban Plankton is my next candidate.
Let’s take a look at his scum hunting. This quote is a mess to quote, so you’ll have to follow the link to Post 503.
This comes off as scummy. It’s looking for a reason and finding issue with a reasonable attitude (uncertainty).
SP has done very little scum hunting, so I would hope that what had been done would be of high quality. This isn’t as egregious as Mahaloth’s votes on Days Two and Three, but I find the reasoning weak. He’s been doing a very good job of floating along and avoiding suspicion. Biotop doesn’t have a read on him (Post 621). I didn’t take a position in my last omnibus post (Post 609) and I even managed to gloss right over him in an earlier omnibus post. Biotop is right to call Suburban Plankton out for being so experienced and yet contributing so little.
His reaction to the two big information bombshells (Mahaloth’s confession, IRC’s claim) feel very off. Rather than jumping onto a Mahaloth vote, he said the tone of Mahaloth was wrong for scum Mahaloth (Post 535). He speculates that the confession was to shut down discussion, then proceeds to not discuss things. Finally, he didn’t vote for confessed scum, which is so obvious that I’m having a hard time understanding why he wouldn’t, as scum or town.
When IRC claimed, the reaction wasn’t to actively doubt the claim, only to state that it would be easy to fake-up and questioning IRC’s investigation and suspicions. This is more muddying the waters rather than looking for scum.
It’s worth noting that SP fits the mold of a lurker and an experienced player still around in midgame. Those alone wouldn’t be enough to push my vote to him, but if he sticks around until Tomorrow, it needs to be asked “Why?”
VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON
If SP flips goon wolf, Dante G is my next suspect as the alpha. Mahaloth was lightning-quick to accuse Biotop of PIS, which pinged the scumdar. First, Dante accuses snfaulkner of perfect information in Post 628:
SP then echoes the accusation in Post 634.
Suburban Plankton has a history of defending Dante G (Post 635, Post 426).
If SP flips alpha, obviously Dante G is off the hook. If SP flips town…Dante’s in limbo while the odds of finding scum in the group that isn’t Dante G and snfaulkner is increased.
Here I go with my gut again…now filtered through my previous Voting Record Analysis
Hooker Chem, I agree with a lot of your points vs Sub Plankton as I was re-reading things. He seems very lurky, and when he does chime in, although helpful in the sense on how to play the game, not so much in the sense of hunting wolves himself. I get the feeling he is sitting back and laughing while watching us all twist ourselves into knots. Which i admit, I AM doing quite a bit. So since he was my #2 already, I’m willing now to switch my vote to him. So…
UNVOTE OCTARINE
VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON
Octarine’s posts are hard to get a feeling from, especially since there are so few. I’m still leaning wolf on him, maybe a bit more because of the lurking.
Biotop’s posts seem to feel very townie and invested in Scum hunting. He’s off my wolfdar for now.
Dante G…Hrmmmm…people seem to be making good points about him being wolf. And if he is, then he has to be the Alpha. I’m down grading him from 2/3 to 1/2…maybe even 7/16…
This needs to be addressed…
My analysis at the time was a scenario where it was assumed you were a wolf. You, as a wolf, would have known Octarine was town in THAT hypothetical scenario. I never did claim, at that time, to know Octarine was anything other than unknown outside of that scenario.
Now, I total can understand misunderstanding my rambling logic yesterday (or anyday, really)…however I can also see this as a wolf trying to cherry pick a quote to confuse. And when Suburban Plankton also commented on it, it makes me think at least one you two are doing just that.
First let me say, good job IRConfused! I am glad the Vigilante didn’t kill you last night. Sorry about that.
I am looking at the remaining players in three groups. I am assuming four Scum in this game, because that makes the most sense.
**
Group #1**
IRConfused, Dante G, snfaulkner:
We don’t vote for anyone in this group. **IRconfused **making a fake claim makes no sense. What if the real Cop showed up to out him? I feel quite confident in IRConfused.
Dante G. or snfaulkner could be Alpha— but at least one is not a wolf. And at least one in one of the other two groups is a wolf. Quite possibly there are two wolves among the other four players. So these players should not, in any way, be candidates for Today.
Group #2
DeadCat, HookerChemical:
These are grouped together for two reasons. I feel that both of them are more likely to be Town, and they have both been playing extensively and thoughtfully. While one or the other or even both could be wolf, at this point in the game it is time to let all the previous work they have done protect them. There is no reason at this time to vote for either.
Group #3
Suburban Plankton, Octarine:
Either or both could be Scum. Suburban Plankton has never been in my Town file, and Octarine moved out from there a Day or so ago. It is unfortunate I work early on Friday and will not be around for Day’s end. So if either **Suburban Plankton **or Octarine wishes to make a post or to defend themselves, this would be a good time to do it. Where the heck is Octarine?
I have been suspicious of **Octarine **for not participating, but I think HookerChemical may be onto something with SP. I am torn. But Hooker, I guess it is time for me to “Piggy-back” off you. I reserve the right to change my mind before I go to work tomorrow morning, after I ask my wife and dog what to do.
Unvote Dante G
Vote Suburban Plankton