No objection here. The long warning is much appreciated.
I still think SP is more likely scum than Octarine, but I the case for lynching him on the weaker existing case and for extreme lurking is reasonable.
I assume IRC is going to be the night kill. The only case I can see against an IRC kill is that it lends some ambiguity to the claim. Given the absence of a counter claim, I don’t expect that. Well played, IRC. We’ll try and bring this game home for you.
If Octarine flips town, I think SP must be the next lynch with Dante next if SP flips goon wolf.
If anybody flips alpha, Dante and snfaulkner are cleared.
Most of that sounds reasonable.
Except for the “SP must be the next lynch” part…you’ll excuse me if I don’t jump on that wagon 
And why **Dante **instead of snfaulkner, if you plan to lynch someone who’s been ‘cleared’ by the Town Cop?
Quite happy to extend next Day, not an issue for me either way.
Agreed 100%.
Speaking for myself - because Dante is the player I feel has been most scummy of those remaining (after you, probably). That’s consistent with my (admittedly somewhat flip-flopping) voting record and posting toDay.
It looks like my hope for Masons in the game fell flat.
If **Octarine **turns out to be vanilla wolf, the Alpha might not kill me since I won’t be able to do any more harm. Any other outcome and I would have to be killed to stop the chance of me hitting the remaining wolf. I will put in an investigation tonight anyway, but I will probably never get the results:( I enjoyed the game, but I think I would have rather gotten a non-power role for my first game.
Go Town.
I’m amazed Octarine still hasn’t shown up to attempt a defence - if he’s a wolf, I can only assume he just felt he could get the remaining wolf in trouble by doing so, which will make for some interesting analysis possibilities. If he’s town, he would be the second town player to basically get themselves lynched (after Sario), which if true has seriously hurt our chances. Not long until we find out…
The day is over, I will go quietly into the night.
*On an island surrounded by sea
Littered with bones and debris
The villagers’ quest
Put **Octarine *to rest
And he swung by his neck in the breeze.
Octarine, a standard village citizen, has been killed.
Day 4 ends here. Players with night actions may PM me with their decisions. Players with night communication may communicate. Day 5 will begin Monday at 11:00 EST.
FFS. Despite IRConfused’s excellent detective work, we’re now in serious trouble. Let’s hope we get a better strike tomorrow which makes his information still useful to us (i.e. we catch the alpha wolf). If we don’t prospects look poor.
I’m really sorry, you guys - this was my first game, and it took up waaay more time than I thought it would. Still, I had loads of fun, though I wish I could have gotten in earlier to at least try to make a defense. C’est la vie.
Chatter aside, all isn’t lost - Town can still win. Good luck.
Well bloody 'ell. And bloody 'angover. Our damn monkey butlers know how to pour the sauce. Sorry octarine. I made a deal with the devil for your life. I hope I can get revengence for our souls to put you at peace.
Sub plankton, sorry if I was a bit belligerent last night. But you know what is next as soon as dawn comes.
**Octarine **, I am sorry. I know how tough this game is trying to play around real life.
What really sucks about this, is that we learn nothing from it. I have more to say, but will refrain until lynch day.
Running late. Gimme an hour or two.
We buried another mangled corpse this morning, along with a tarnished silver badge and one of those cute blue caps.
IRConfused, the village cop, has been killed.
**Day 3 begins here. It will end Saturday at noon EST.
**
So how did we get from here:
to here:
Post 635, Suburban Plankton votes for Dead Cat. Dante G 4, snfaulkner 2, DC 1.
Then, in post 638, we get IRC’s claim and investigation results stating the Mahaloth was scum (already known), and that both of the current lynch targets (Dante and snfaulkner) had been investigated as town. This doesn’t completely exonerate the two of them, but it makes the pool of players who are not them a better scum hunting pool.
I (HookerChemical) unvote in Post 642. Snfaulkner follows suit in Post 647. Post 654 has snfaulkner putting his vote on Octarine. At this point, it’s:
Dante G = 3 (Dead Cat,Octarine,[del]snfaulkner[/del],Biotop)
snfaulkner = 1 ([del]HookerChemical[/del],Dante G)
Dead Cat = 1 (Suburban Plankton)
Octarine = 1 (snfaulkner 654)
Not Voting = 2 (HookerChemical, IRConfused)
I (HookerChemical) follow up that evening with a vote on Suburban Plankton in Post 657, and snfaulkner likes the case I presented, swapping his vote in Post 658. Biotop joins on the SP lynch train that appears to be taking off in Post 660. At this point, the votes are:
Suburban Plankton = 3 (HookerChemical 657, snfaulkner 658, Biotop 660)
Dante G = 2 (Dead Cat,Octarine,[del]snfaulkner[/del],[del]Biotop[/del])
snfaulkner = 1 ([del]HookerChemical[/del],Dante G)
Dead Cat = 1 (Suburban Plankton 635)
Not Voting = 1 (IRConfused)
Octarine = 0 ([del]snfaulkner 654/658[/del])
SP switches from Dead Cat and votes Dante G in Post 662. This vote is a bad vote/post for all kinds of reasons. First, it’s not a coin toss between Dante G and snfaulkner. The odds of hitting scum are clearly better for hitting scum in the “not investigated” pool than in the “investigated as town” pool. I don’t have my notes here, but I think that by chance alone, it was 35% to 20%. I have my theory that SP is a goon and Dante G is the alpha, and with that in mind, SP’s post looks like SP trying to put distance between himself and Dante G by putting a vote on a player who absolutely should not be lynched that day because the “investigated as town” pool is not where the scum hunt should occur. If my theory holds and the lynch of Dante does happen, it means the alpha was lynched and SP gets townie cred. Also, there is no evidence presented by SP. There’s no evidence presented, no argument about why Dante should be lynched despite the investigation, only a (horribly misleading) statement about a coin flip giving better odds.
Back to the voting trainwreck. Biotop restarts the Octarine lynch in Post 663. At the time, there were no votes on Octarine. IRC cuts a deal to vote Octarine with SP and casts his vote in 668 with SP joining in 671. Sfnaulkner jumps over in Post 673. Dead Cat gets off the Dante G vote and joins the Octarine lynch in 676. The final vote count is:
Octarine = 5 ([del]snfaulkner 654/658[/del], Biotop 663, IRConfused 668, Suburban Plankton 671, snfaulkner 673, Dead Cat 676)
Dante G = 1 ([del]Dead Cat[/del],Octarine,[del]snfaulkner[/del],[del]Biotop[/del], [del]Suburban Plankton 662/671[/del])
Suburban Plankton = 1 (HookerChemical 657, [del]snfaulkner 658/673[/del], [del]Biotop 660/663[/del])
snfaulkner = 1 ([del]HookerChemical[/del],Dante G)
Dead Cat = 0 ([del]Suburban Plankton 635/662[/del])
What went wrong? I think IRConfused and snfaulkner cut a deal with the devil that gave the Octarine lynch momentum. It took a 2-1 SP lynch and made it a vote 4-1 Octarine lynch. (It’s possible a scum Biotop took it upon himself to make it an Octarine lynch, but if Biotop is scum, we should give him the MVP trophy now and enjoy the holiday weekend.) I thought the case against SP was stronger when I cast my vote, and I think SP’s posts since then have only contributed to that suspicion.
First, there are the attempts to dump a throw-away vote on Dead Cat and Dante. These were junk votes. There was no way DC was getting lynched and I suspect Suburban Plankton was happy to let us mis-lynch townie snfaulkner. The case against Dead Cat stated in Post 635 was the merest wisp of a case given that we’re 650+ posts into this. When did saying you weren’t completely sold on a case become scummy?
Second, there are the posts that muddy the waters, such as the aftermath to IRC’s (now confirmed legit) investigation. Rather than evaluate the claim, SP questioned the conclusions IRC was drawing from it. This is discussed in Post 651.
Finally,
If you flip goon (as I suspect), then the investigation results are irrelevant, and Dante is both a leading scum candidate on his own (absent the investigation) and because of your history of subtle protections against him. Only 21 posts ago, you yourself thought he was the better vote of the two.
VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON
Hooker, that is a great post and I agree 100% (except perhaps the last sentence which is illogical if you think SP is a wolf). I won’t repeat any of it because I think your analysis is spot on and SP was my number one lynch candidate today anyway. However, I’ll see if I can add to the argument a little.
It’s pretty obvious we’re in deep trouble here - I assume there are 4 town and 2 wolves left, with the only power role remaining being the alpha wolf (surely if we had a town guardian, they would have protected IRC last night). That being so, if we mislynch today we’ve basically lost. On the other hand, a successful lynch today gives us a fighting chance of catching the last wolf tomorrow.
I know I’m town and feel that overall I’ve played a solid town game. I think both Biotop and Hooker have played extremely good town games and as such look very town to me. snfaulkner I’m still unsure about but right now I’m tending to think he’s trying his best and has made a few mistakes that look wolfish, but actually he’s town.
That leaves Dante G and Suburban Plankton as the two wolves, for me. Now, attempting to apply a little game theory - if we correctly lynch SP today, and he flips Alpha, we know Dante is town. We would also know snfaulkner is town. That would leave me with a horrible choice between Hooker and Biotop to try and lynch on the last Day, and I think it would be a 50-50 shot. On the other hand, if we lynch SP and he flips plain wolf, we can go for Dante on the last Day with a clear conscience. I won’t consider SP flipping town because in that case I’d say we’ve as good as lost anyway. On the other hand, if we assume Dante is the alpha and lynch him today, and we’re right, we can go after SP tomorrow. We know Dante can’t be vanilla wolf, so if he’s town and we lynch him today, again we’ve basically lost.
So, given the above, although lynching SP and him flipping Alpha is not great, doesn’t it give us an extra chance compared with lynching Dante today and him flipping Alpha? Does any of this make sense to anyone else? I feel like I’m doing a poor job of expressing it.
Anyway, while I’m not going to stop analysing older posts toDay, for now I think there is a clear case to
VOTE Suburban Plankton
That was poorly framed. SP is questioning why I’d lean Dante, when SP was voting Dante recently. It’s yet another instance of SP sowing doubt when arguments have been presented and he has already expressed some agreement.
I’m not 100% sure what you’re getting at, but are you asking about the case for lynching Dante before SP? If so, it’s not a good idea. We know there is one wolf in the pool of (Dead Cat, HookerChemical, Biotop, Suburban Plankton). There may be an alpha among them as well. There may be an alpha among (snfaulkner, Dante G).
Playing strictly by the odds (and writing only from the perspective of the townies in the uninvestigated pool), there is a 20% chance of finding a wolf among the investigated players and a 53% chance among the uninvestigated. (Please check my math if you’re concerned about the exact numbers. This was back of the envelope.) We should clearly be looking among the pool of uninvestigated players. We are certain there is one wolf among them. We can’t say the same of the investigated players.
If we lynch any of the uninvestigated players and they turn up goon, we know we need to consider the pool of investigated players as well. If we lynch one of the uninvestigated and they flip alpha, we can clear Dante and snfaulkner and look for the last wolf among the remaining uninvestigated players.
I never thought that **Dante **was a better vote than snfaulkner. I’ve been saying for some time now that I think Dante is Town. What I thought (and said, quite clearly) was that Dante was a better vote than me. My vote on Dante was a self-preservation vote, pure and simple.
I was quite clear yesterDay who I suspected of being Scum: Dead Cat and snfaulkner. I’ve seen nothing since to change my opinion.
There’s not too much we can glean from the Scum kill last Night; they took out the Town Cop. That was pretty much expected. But it does suggest that perhaps the Cop had already served his purpose (from a Scum perspective), which was to investigate the Alpha…who I think is snfaulkner.
It is interesting to see how we got from Point A to Point B yesterDay.
The first vote on Dante was from Dead Cat, who then switched his vote over to snfaulnker. Other early Dante voters were: Octarine, snfaulkner, and Biotop…and then Dead Cat again, once the votes had started to pile up.
HookerChemical placed the first vote on Suburban, followed quickly by snfaulkner and Biotop, briefly changing the vote lead, until I (SP) placed my vote on Dante to create the tie.
At that point, Biotop placed the first vote on Octarine. To be precise though, it wasn’t the first vote of the Day on Octarine; snfaulkner had briefly had a vote there before moving it to Suburban. And once the Octarine train started picking up steam, snfaulkner and Dead Cat both jumped on board to seal the deal.
I’m convinced that Dead Cat and **snfaulkner **are the two remaining Scum, and will gladly vote for either of them.
Vote Dead Cat
To respond further to a couple of the points you made, Hooker:
I didn’t make a “throw-away vote on Dead Cat”. I voted for a player that I thought was Scum, at a time when a player I thought was Town (Dante G) was the leading vote-getter. It was still very early in the Day, so there was plenty of time for votes to change. And I’ve already explained (for the second time) exactly why I voted for Dante. I made that clear yesterDay.
At the time I voted for Dead Cat, there was “no way” Octarine was getting lynched either, yet look what happened? I did exactly what I would expect everyone to do in that situation: I voted for the person I felt was most likely to be Scum.
And you suspect I was “happy to let us mis-lynch townie snfaulkner”? At what point was it likely that snfaulkner was going to be lynched? By the time we were anywhere close to EoD he was nowhere near being in the running.
You’re using hindsight to support your argument here. Yes, I did question IRC’s claim and his conclusions. That’s exactly what you should do whenever a Town Power is claimed. We know now that his claim was true, but we didn’t know that yesterDay. At least, I didn’t know…which is why I questioned him.