I’m saddened to see that IRC was killed as that means we lost another town and that I questioned his results and claim unjustly.
As of now I am going to continue my push for snfaulkner for the same reasons I stated yesterDay . I truly feel that he is the alpha wolf. I know a case is being made for Plankto, but I think I will stick to my vote.
VOTE snfaulkner
Thanks, that is what I was trying to say.
Quote snipped to leave the parts I want to discuss. I will go back and reread before end of Day, but please could you remind us why you think this? Because although it’s easy for me to say as I know you’re wrong about me, I don’t think most of the other players see a scum case against me. I admit I have unfortunately been on the wrong side of a few votes, but that’s fairly likely for a town player. I voted early and loudly for Prof P on Day One and was only persuaded to change my mind by the fact that losing a quiet Town player is not too bad a result, and Sario could easily have been a wolf. Then on Day 3 I was first to vote for Mahaloth, at a time when a decent case had been made against two other players and it would have been easier for a wolf to jump on them instead. I think that if I were a wolf (and won), it would be an amazingly constructed piece of gameplay for a newbie - just implausible, in fact.
I will also say I am completely unconvinced by your arguments and I am currently more certain of anything since I accused Prof P that you and Dante are the two remaining wolves. In fact, I’m almost becoming confident that town will prevail toMorrow in this basis. I suppose snfaulkner’s vote will potentially be quite important, but at the moment I expect him and Biotop to come down on my side. Overconfident? Perhaps. I hope not. If I am right and this pans out as I expect, we have indeed been lucky to have Hooker and Biotop on our side.
Ok, Just now finding a few minutes of time to check in. I have not even read the Day break post from our humble narrator yet. But I need to do this first…
VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON
I need to go mess with the BIOS settings of some stupid machine. But I will definitely be catching up and back on later this afternoon…
Ok, I’m caught up.
IRConfused, Sorry to see you go. But I have to say your reveal and investigations came to light at probably the perfect time. To me it seemed things were going south for us pretty fast, then you revealed, and now things seems a whole lot clearer. Of course, I say that, but then I STILL got it wrong with Octarine…
Suburban Plankton is the obvious lynch toDay, based on my logic from yesterDay. I don’t understand his case against DeadCat at all.
DeadCat, along with Biotop, HookerChemical are all townies in my book, so I guess that leaves Dante G as the only other wolf (assuming there were 4 to begin with), and thus the alpha.
FWIW, updated vote record…
Day 1
Sario Lynched - 8 votes: (IRConfused 55)(Prof. Pepperwinkle 191)(snfaulkner 237)(Astral Rejection 245)(Dead Cat 284)(WF Tomba 288)(Hooker Chemical 297)(Mahaloth 303)
Prof Pepperwinkle - 4 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Biotop 211)(Texcat 218)
IRConfused - 1 vote: (Octarine 160)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 127)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (Dante G 129)
Night 1
Astral Rejection
Prof. Pepperwinkle
Day 2
WF Tomba Lynched - 8 votes: (Sub Plankton 372)(Octarine 377)(Dante G 378)(snfaulkner 384)(Dead Cat 404)(HookerChemical 407)(Biotop 427)(Texcat 433)
Dante G - 1 votes: (Precambrianmollusc 365)
Mahaloth - 1 vote: (IRConfused 376)
snfaulkner - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 386)
HookerChemical - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 436)
Night 2
Precambrianmollusc Doctor
Day 3
Mahaloth ROLEBLOCKER Lynched - 7 vote: (Dead Cat 500) (TexCat 516)(HookerChemical 518)(snfaulkner 519)(Biotop 549)(Octarine 550)(IRConfused 560)
Octarine - 2 vote: (Suburban Plankton 503) (Dante G 504)
Biotop - 1 vote: (Mahaloth 495)
Night 3
TexCat Macho Vigilante
Day 4
Octarine Lynched - 5 (Biotop 663, IRConfused 668, Suburban Plankton 671, snfaulkner 673, Dead Cat 676)
Suburban Plankton = 1 (HookerChemical 657)
snfaulkner - 1 vote - (Dante G 628)
Dante G - 1 vote - (Octarine 610)
Night 4
IRConfused Town Cop
Hey Johnny B, and everyone, I’m not against ending the Day later because of the holiday and all, but how do we feel about maybe ending the Day EARLIER? Like Wed? Just a thought…
First off, I want to say that I am also fine with ending the day earlier. Personally I think it makes more sense to end voting and discussion before the holiday weekend. That we all that remains to beddone during the long weekend is for night abilities to be sent, instead of still trying to discuss and debate. Up to you, JohnnyB.
Also, Unvote snfaulkner .
vote Suburban Plankton
Doing the math makes it way more likely that we will get a scummy wolf by lynching from the noninvestigated.
I’m okay with this if we have 24 hours warning.
**That’s fine by me if it’s what everyone wants.
Vote count, while I’m checking in:
Suburban Plankton - 4 votes - (HookerChemical 696)(Dead Cat 697)(snfaulkner 703)(DanteG 707)
Dead Cat - 1 vote - (Suburban Plankton 699)**
It was a very long day at the grocery store today, and it isn’t going to get any better all week, so I am sorry for having to post late and for not participating in the Day’s discussion so far. It will not get any better for me until after Thanksgiving. I very much hope we will not call an early end to the Day, because I want to make sure we are doing the right thing. Many of us have put in a lot of work on this game, and I would hate to see the most important vote we are going to make determined rashly. And selfishly, I don’t really have much time to devote to this until later in the week. I want to play.
I came into ToDay believing that Suburban Plankton was the best vote for toDay. I felt less good about a **Dante G **vote tomorrow, for reasons I will explain. It has to do with three mysteries, and unfortunately now there is a fourth.
These are the three mysteries that have bugged me all game:
Mystery #1: If we posit a Suburban Planton/Dante G co-wolf team remaining, then we have no answer to what happened on Day 1. Neither player voted for either Professor Pepperwinkle or Sario. Mahaloth voted for** Sario**, but at such a late time it almost didn’t matter. A Suburban Plankton/snfaulkner wolf team makes more sense. snfaulkner had been voting for** Professor Pepperwinkle**, but as has been noted, he almost seemed to be asking for others to give him a reason to switch. Suburban could have been waiting and did not join in because it was not necessary. So this has me leaning to snfaulkner as the investigated Alpha wolf, not Dante.
Mystery #2: Did the wolves kill our doctor out of sheer luck? Why kill** PCM **instead of say, TexCat, Hooker or myself? One theory is that the wolves killed PCM to protect a Scum **Dante G. **But did Dante really need protecting at this point such that it was imperative to kill PCM? I guess that could be a rationale for believing in **Dante G/SP **as our remaining wolves. A Suburban Plankton/snfaulkner wolf theory certainly doesn’t make it any clearer. Were they trying to set up Dante? The thing makes little sense however I try to piece it together. Dante was not a heavily suspected or dangerously feared player at the time. Why would he be a factor in the wolves second Night Kill?
Mystery #3: I have always felt that the Mahaloth confession has felt wrong, and I don’t think we have gotten to the bottom of it. Maybe Mahaloth was just ready to stop. Maybe he was waiting for snfaulkner to come in and vote for him. Maybe he didn’t want **Suburban **or Dante to give themselves away trying to save him? I don’t know, but I sure am interested in finding out.
I bring up these mysteries because I think it is very important we at least discuss these things one more time before we end the Day. This is a critical vote. We don’t have any more mistakes to make. One more “oops” and it is almost certainly over.
The prevailing theory is two wolves remaining. If we operate on that theory then we have the following:
4 Town vs 2 Scum. If we mislynch today then we will have 2 Town and 2 Scum left toMorrow. The two remaining wolves can vote together and we either have a tie or we lose outright. If we tie and are lucky enough to win the coin toss, then after a night kill we are down to one of us and one of them. It comes down to another coin flip. We’d have to win both coin flips to survive and win.
Our vote today is a critical vote indeed and should not be taken lightly.
But let’s look at it from their perspective. This is a critical vote for the wolves. If we lynch a wolf tonight then there is only one left. Because there are an even number of players going into each Day, the wolves can never outnumber us once we kill one more of them off. If we kill a wolf, the best they can hope for is a “one on one” tie on the final Day, with a coin flip to decide the winner. The Scum cannot win outright if we lynch another wolf in this game. It would be the luck of a coin toss as their best case scenario. So they have a lot riding on toDay as well. Scum would not want to see Scum lynched ToDay, I don’t think.
And that brings me to Mystery #4:
If Suburban Plankton is a wolf, why are all the players voting for him? Where is the other wolf?
Of course not all of the players are voting for Suburban Plankton, I have not cast my vote yet. And until I get a possible answer to this mystery and some of the others, I am going to wait and think. My work schedule is really going to hinder this process until Friday, so I hope we can slow things down, not speed them up.
I don’t see why we are rushing to end the day. What is the benefit? Because if Suburban Plankton is not a wolf, (and because we know that Dante G and snfaulkner cannot both be wolves) …then I would have to believe that either Hooker or DeadCat is the remaining Scum. That doesn’t seem right. But if Suburban P is Scum, then why have all the votes gone to him? Every player but me. And I know I am Town.
I don’t want to believe either **HookerChemical **or DeadCat is Scum. But if neither is Scum, then I have to believe that snfaulkner or Dante is probably the Alpha. They cannot both be wolf, so the other wolf must be Suburban Plankton. Except both of these possible Alpha players are now voting for Suburban Plankton and pushing for an early end of Day. I don’t understand this. Not at all.
So do you see my problem? Can we at least take some time to discuss this please.
Biotop, yes I completely understand your problem. I was going to post in favour of ending the Day early, just because I’m impatient and it all seems clear to me now. However, I agree with you that we don’t want to rush this critical moment in the game, after weeks of patient play. So I guess we should stick to what we originally agreed and end the Day on Saturday. Presumably the Night can still end on Monday as hopefully our remaining wolf won’t have much to discuss with himself! Note this is not PIS, just an assumption.
Having said that, my answers to your questions are as follows.
I’ve never been a wolf, but it seems clear to me that if a mislynch happens without their involvement, this is excellent for them. So Sario was lynched without Dante or SP needing to vote for him, and they must have been delighted. Remember the Sario bandwagon wasn’t a last minute thing, it happened with about 24 hours to go until end of Day. Had Sario stepped in and made some useful Townie posts, I certainly would have considered changing my vote back to Prof P.
For much of the game I have been assuming the wolves investigated PCM on Night 1 and got lucky there, so killed him on Night 2. It may now be more likely that actually the wolves don’t have an investigatory power role, though that it is still possible. Either way, I tend to believe that they just got lucky and the Dante thing has been a nice extra complication for them that we shouldn’t tie ourselves in too many knots over. We get virtually no information from a Night kill compared with a lynch.
I still believe Mahaloth simply made a basic mistake and confessed when he thought Day was about to end, when in fact it had 24 hours to run. He then made a few more posts perhaps trying to muddy the waters in his last remaining hours. I maintain that while we should be suspicious of these, we should not ignore them completely. Even if they are misinformation, they are still information.
Don’t forget that Dante initially voted for snfaulkner. Then, when it became three votes on SP and one each on me and snf, he changed to SP. My theory is that he felt the game was up for SP as you would be unlikely to vote for me, so there was no point in changing his vote from SP to me and hope you then vote for me to create the tie. Therefore, may as well get on the bandwagon so that when SP is lynched and flips wolf, he can point to this vote and claim town cred. The only thing that doesn’t add up for me is why SP voted for me in the first place. Surely wolf SP would be better off voting for snf from the start, as more of us see more scummy things about snf than me? Unless snf is actually the alpha. Nevertheless, regardless of that I maintain SP is the right vote for toDay.
A quick chime in, if I may. Im completely ok with our previously scheduled EOD. Biotop, I understand real life bs, and the importance of toDay’s vote. I’ve also really enjoy reading your analysiseses, even when directed towards me. I recind my eand early proposal.
Other comments I have will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon for me.
Biotop wants to know why people are piling on Suburban Plankton and yet he hasn’t. Well maybe the reason is because we are right and Biotop is the last remaining Scum. Could be?
Could be, but it could also be that he doesn’t trust the speed at which the train picked up steam. I don’t trust the speed, but still think it’s the most likely scum. I’ll be contemplating the questions Biotop asked, but may not be able to post again today. However, I have another question to consider as well:
How did the lynch yesterDay go wrong?
It seems to me it went wrong in pretty much the same way as the Day 1 lynch, in that we had a player who had some scummy characteristics who was unable to defend himself in time. I think most of us accepted IRC’s claim as genuine, which meant we essentially had a pool of most likely scum to choose from comprising me, you, Biotop, SP, and Octarine (i.e. all those in the game who were not IRC nor those he investigated as town). We know that you, me, and Biotop have largely looked town all game, so it came down to Octarine vs SP. Initially there was some momentum towards SP, but the key point seemed to come when IRC decided to pick on Octarine and this persuaded SP, snf, and me to join him. Before this, Biotop had switched to Octarine on the basis of lurking (essentially). I’m sorry to say that rather like Sario, Octarine virtually lynched himself.
On re-reading the last page of the thread, I do get some scummy vibes from snf for voting for Octarine, but he did unvote him and vote for SP - before unvoting again and switching back to Octarine. If snf is a wolf, I don’t see how it benefits him to bus SP at this stage, I think he genuinely wasn’t sure (like me) and (like me) ended up making the wrong choice. I was getting a strong wolf read from SP yesterDay but by the time I came back to thread (the above pretty much all happened while I slept), there seemed little point in trying to make a case against SP given there seemed to be a solid case against Octarine, and there was little time to change. I felt there was a decent case against Octarine and was OK with my vote on him, I certainly didn’t want to allow the wolves to engineer a tie (in case we were right about Octarine and wrong about SP - would have given them a 50-50 chance of getting off the hook).
The more I read SP’s posts from yesterDay, the less sense they make to me. Hopefully we are finally going to make the right choice toDay.
The question comes down to whether **Suburban Plankton ** is Scum. If so, then I and others guessed wrong and **SP **helped it along with his dealing, almost surely aided by the other wolf.
Dante, if this makes me look suspicious then so be it. I am not posting with too much concern right now with how it will make me look. We are at the point where we cannot make another mistake in voting. Post what you think. That’s the best way to “look Town” anyway because you are telling the truth as you see it.
As DeadCat noted, this is the second mislynch that could have been prevented by the accused players had they merely come back in a timely fashion and defended themselves. By not posting, we are left to question why. I knew I could not play much early this week and I posted such. If a player does not post it is easy and somewhat reasonable to assume the worst.
If **SP **is not Scum, then the lynch went wrong yesterDay much earlier. It did not much matter which player of the two final candidates we chose.
With 6 players there are 15 possible combinations of 2 wolves. I can eliminate 6 because I am Town and **snfaulkner ** and **Dante ** cannot both be wolf. That leaves 9 possibilities. I am going to try and reread this game with each of those possibilities to go along with Mahaloth and **Prof. P ** and see which wolf team makes the most overall sense in explaining what has happened. I hope some other Town players will do the same.
Except right now, I am not going to do that. I am going to spend 12 hours selling turkey, canned cranberry sauce, sweet potatoes and chestnuts in the jar. I work Thanksgiving until 2pm, when our store will finally close for half a day. I will spend the rest of TG day with my wife and family. I hope to have time to post more on Friday as my work day then is not as long. Thank you everyone for not ending the Day early.
Can you restate that logic for me? Maybe you’ll change my mind, and I’ll vote for myself 
As for why I suspect Dead Cat, it’s simple. It’s his voting record.
Day 1 - He placed an early vote on Prof P., stating “Prof., if I’m wrong I’m really sorry but I’m having a hard time thinking of anything you can say now that will change my mind.” That lasted right up until the point where the AWOL **Sario **was only one vote behind, when Dead Cat decided to cast the deciding vote on the mislynch.
Day 2 - Between posts 397 and 403 he voices his suspicions of no fewer than 8 players; that’s half the Town…which makes it pretty easy to come back later and point out that you suspected ‘that guy’ to be Scum all along. His only vote was for WF Tomba, giving him at the time a 3 vote lead and leading to a runaway.
Day 3 - He placed the first vote on Mahaloth, who later accidentally outed himself. I think Dead cat bussed his teammate early here, just like he had done on Day 1, and due to Mahaloth’s error, things got away from them.
Day 4 - He started out with a vote on Dante G, but with the “if he flips town that could give us a fair amount more information” caveat. Then he switched his vote to snfaulkner, with the " I reserve the right to change my mind later in the Day" caveat. And then after Dante G picked up a couple of votes, he exercised that right and switched back. And then after the Town collectively decided to lynch the lurker again (Octarine), he joined in, saying “I still think Dante could be the alpha (especially if we are wrong about Octarine)”
Day 5 - In hist first post of the Day, he says “SP was my number one lynch candidate today anyway”…despite having never voiced any particular suspicions of be before the latter stages of Day 4 (a Day during which he never actually voted for me, even when the rest of the Town was leaning toward lynching me).
An early vote on Scum on Day 1, but late in the Day he switches off of it to lynch a Townie. No early vote on day 2, but a late vote to seal a second mislynch. An early Scum vote on Day 3, which he never had a chance to back off of. An early vote on Day 4 on a player I think is the Alpha Wolf, then a switch off of him, and a failure to take the opportunity to lynch the player who is now apparently his #1 Suspect.
He’s Scum. And so are you.
As I explained at the time and since, I still thought Prof P was a wolf but on the off chance he was town, I would prefer a talkative townie to a silent one. It’s easy to see with hindsight that I made the wrong decision, but unfortunately I didn’t have any more information to go on at the time. Had Prof P not died on Night One I would have continued to pursue him on Day Two, happily for Town that wasn’t necessary.
I think at any given time it would be odd for a townie not to be suspicious of half the players, that is the nature of the game after all. Furthermore, I don’t recall making any “I told you so” type posts about anyone I have suspected. The fact I was wrong about WFTomba was unfortunate but I was hardly alone in that, nor do I feel my vote was particularly significant in leading to his mislynch.
It’s a nice theory, but as I said earlier, why would I bus Mahaloth when I could have instead helped build momentum against one of the two town players who had already attracted votes by that stage? Granted, I’ve never been a wolf so I’m not sure how I would play the game in that situation, but it doesn’t make much sense to me. I concede it is possible but you are just mistaken I’m afraid. You’re also missing the fact that I had plenty of chance to get off the Mahaloth vote before he outed himself, but I chose not to because for the first time since my Day One vote for Prof P, I was convinced I’d caught a wolf. If I was bussing Mahaloth, I would have needed to get off that vote earlier.
Sure, I did flip-flop a bit on Day 4 and acknowledged this at the time. Your analysis conveniently glosses over the fact we had the big reveal by Town Cop IRConfused between my final vote for Dante and switching to Octarine. Had that not occurred it’s unlikely I would have changed my mind again.
As I explained earlier, I would have voted for you on Day 4, but by the time I caught up with the thread the rest of the Town were certainly not “leaning toward lynching [you]”, they were heavily voting for Octarine. Again, I decided lynching the lurker was the correct strategy, and again this was proved wrong due to Octarine’s unplanned absence.
I think I have explained myself reasonably well but I will leave that to others to decide.
Not me, and I don’t think snf is either. Dante seems a much stronger candidate for Alpha wolf to me than snf.
I have to say though, I do give you credit for trying to make the case against me. I presume you looked at everyone’s record and decided mine was the one you could most easily twist to fit your agenda. I really hope it doesn’t work, because if Town mislynch me they are going to find it tricky to win.
Please don’t assume we are townies unless there is evidence to confirm it (e.g. investigation results and a dead alpha). Until then, Biotop, Dead Cat, and I are not above suspicion. We’re four days into this game and nobody has a spotless record. It’s a matter of sorting out who’s missteps have been most critical or most common. I think you’re right about Dante, but don’t take it for granted that anybody is town.
Snfaulkner, thanks for the updated summary. (You missed some coloring on Octarine, but the effort is still very useful.) Here’s my take.
Day One looks like a town screw-up with a confirmed minor scum assist and possible a major assist in the votes of me (HookerChemical) Dead Cat, and snfaulkner. Biotop comes out looking pretty townie for being on the Prof P side of the vote. SP’s vote for snfaulkner for cheese references is a poor excuse for a vote, even for Day One. It would be more scummy had he been present for the last couple days of the Day, where it was time to take a stand on Sario/Prof P. As it is, it reads to me like scum stashing a throw away vote somewhere relatively nontelling, but it could be a townie making a weaksauce vote early and not coming back to make a substantial vote. Given SP’s experience, I lean toward the former.
Day Two isn’t very telling. There are only two confirmed town voting for WFT (TexCat and Dante or snfaulkner). All living players voted for WFT, so I don’t think we can make much of it. The Mahaloth vote against me is the type of “safe” scum throw away vote I’m referring to above.
Day Three is the weird Mahaloth lynch. Dead Cat, snfaulkner, and I (HookerChemical) voted Mahaloth pre-confession. Biotop joined after. I interpret this as townie for the pre-confession votes and neutral for the votes after the confession. It’s possible that the timing was intended to give cover to a scum voting, but three votes came in very quickly (3 posts apart, roughly 20 minutes) and they were led off by a known townie, so a scum conspiracy to lynch scum looks unlikely. Strangely, Dante and SP didn’t vote Mahaloth despite the confession. This is so weird, it’s hard to say whether it’s scummy or not.
Day Four was the Octarine mislynch, which I’ve given my rundown of. I think veteran SP convinced relative newbies to join in the mislynch (and a potential wolf). If SP is town, this was a town/town scenario, and I’m hard pressed to make much sense of it because it would have required scum jumping ship from the SP lynch to the Octarine lynch. (You can’t discount the possibility that both Dante and I are scum, but hope you think that scenario looks absurd as well.)
I’m still in the “SP is scum” camp. The votes make sense if SP is scum. I really hope I’m wrong about my SP/Dante theory and that he’s the alpha since that gives us two clear players (likely one after the night), but for now we hunt where we have a much better chance of finding scum.