Finally, I’m under the impression that we are back to our regularly scheduled EOD, given an objection, the fact that we haven’t had an early EOD confirmed, and the initial phrasing of “That’s fine by me if it’s what everyone wants.” (Emphasis added.) This is also fine by me. I’m unlkely to be around much tomorrow for obvious reasons.
I had a thought on the way to work today, but this has been my first chance to come to the break room to post it.
Could we be wrong about the number of wolves?
We didn’t have any masons, and a vigilante could just as easily accidentally kill Town as correctly target Scum. Considering we had a wolf with a power role, maybe three was enough to balance the sides for JBravo.
This would also explain why all the votes have gone one way… because there is only one wolf left! I always thought** Mahaloth**'s attack on me for saying four wolves was odd considering we had all discussed it. But if he knew we were wrong and there were only three Scum, he might have been more in tuned to look for that kind of argument.
If this is right then we are already guaranteed a tie!
When you say regularly scheduled, you mean rescheduled to Saturday as originally requested by Biotop. At least, that is my impression. I may not be able to do more analysis until Friday, so that would suit me.
I am so tired.
I don’t want to go on about how difficult it is to work frenzied Thanksgiving crowds at the supermarket. You probably have never had anyone get visibly frothing upset with you because your business didn’t carry their favorite brand of gravy. But I am sure your job has something of equal absurdity. And it is neither here nor there in regards to this game.
Several of us have been posting and reading and posting and reading. And then reading again. I think I can quote a good number of posts from memory at this point. I don’t feel like there is a whole lot more to analyze. With apologies to all, I must say that I am tired of rereading this game. I am not going to do it tonight. And maybe not tomorrow night either.
I have to work at the supermarket until 2:15pm on Thanksgiving, and then I get to spend the afternoon with my wife and family. I am hoping for a short day at work on Friday, and I am finally off Saturday. Maybe if I get my energy back I will be able to get excited again. If not, I am sorry I kept everyone from having a shorter Day. Taking our time seemed to make sense just a real day or two ago. Now I am not sure it mattered. This is just a game on a message board, after all. It’s not real life. My wife would probably say I’ve confused the two often over the past few weeks.
I guess the optimism of this morning has been replaced by a colder reality of the evening. I suppose I don’t really think there are only three wolves. From everything I have read outside this site, and from the opinions of people who are a lot more experienced than I am, that is probably not going to be the case. But I can wish it. This is Paradise, where wishes should come true.
I think Suburban Plankton is probably a wolf. Despite his spirited case against DeadCat, every time I read a post from DeadCat now I still think it is the truth. And **Hooker **doesn’t seem to be lying either. Hooker’s post right after TexCat ‘s case against Mahaloth just about has to be genuine because it so closely mirrored TexCat’s thoughts. She didn’t even address this at all when she later accused Hooker. Maybe she had already made up her mind.
So if HookerChemical or DeadCat turn out to be a wolf, then win or lose I will shake their hand (paw). They are Town to me. So right now I am going to not only go with my gut, but I am going to trust the two players I have been semi-trusting most of the game.
Vote Suburban Plankton
Now I have words for two other players.
Dante G: If you are a wolf I realize why you have been reluctant to share the load of post analysis. You said early on that you could not understand why Scum would go to all the trouble to read and post thoughts on all the other players. You also said in #232 that “I never really post that way myself” regarding long analytical postings. Yet you feel it is OK to accuse. If you are Town, then you are my partner. You are obligated to try and read and figure out what is going on. No, you don’t have to go “all out” like DeadCat or Hooker, but why not show us that you are at least going back over the whole game and thinking. Tell me why you think **Suburban **is a wolf. Heck, tell me why you think I am. “Because of THIS post, and because of THIS one and because of THIS vote and…etc.”
snfaulkner: You are new to this game but have been by your own account re-reading and re-reading again. What do you have to show us for it? Why do you think SP is Scum? Who else is a wolf? I have gone back and forth with you all game, trying to parse sense from your posts, trying to figure out whether you are Scum or Town. Now I want you to show me that you have really been doing all this rereading. Or are you Scum after all? It would make sense for SP to accuse you if you are both in this together, because then if he flips Scum you will look like the innocent one. Dante will probably get lynched, and then we have a tie. Well, if you are innocent prove it. Make a case instead of just following Hooker, or DeadCat or me. And the reason cannot be simply that **Dante **is experienced. That won’t cut it anymore.
I can trust this: I trust that if I am still worn out on Friday that DeadCat and Hooker will pick up the slack and analyze diligently because they have been doing it all game. Hooker, I know you didn’t mean to make me feel bad about not posting long analysis when you implied that if I slowed down it was a change of game technique for me and thus a possible Scum tell. I have tried to hold up my end. But I am tired now. It’s not a scum tell, it is a human tell.
Suburban Plankton: If you are Town then I am sorry. I don’t know why everyone is voting for you. Maybe I will find the energy Friday to look at this once again. I have read and reread your case against DeadCat. It just doesn’t overcome my gut feeling that he is Town. The postings by DeadCat over and over seem to me to be made by a player sincerely analyzing and trying to catch Scum. And I don’t know why you are so totally sure that snfaulkner is the Alpha and not Dante. Do you have any suspicions at all of Hooker or myself? I also haven’t seen you make a strong case for your innocence. Why is that?
Suburban Plankton is probably Scum and we will then triumph if we figure out the final wolf. I should feel excited that we might soon win after this exhaustive four week plus game. I sure I will feel a thrill if a** SP** scum flip is confirmed. But right now I am tired. I have to be at the store tomorrow at 8:00. There will be crowds again. I am going to bed.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
OK Biotop, let me first state that I’m not going to explain to you why I think you are Scum, because I don’t suspect you of being so. Therefore I will not continue down that road.
As for your other requests for me to analyze and tell you why I believe this or that - um, no. I am not “obligated” to play the game the way you are. I am town and that is all I can say for certain. As for other players, well, the evidence is there. Others have pointed to many things - certain votes, suspicious posts etc. I myself have even made a few observations before others, so I don’t see any more reason to go back and reread things over again effectively going against the style of game that I am comfortable playing, just to appease your request. Believe me, this is how I work best in mafia. If I try it your way, I’ll get lost in the rabbit hole and you’ll find me rocking in a corner mumbling about wolves and townies.
My vote stands.
OOG - HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO YOU ALL.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Even though you’re all trying to kill me.
Dante,
I am not trying to raise your ire. You of course can play any way you choose. I am simply trying to get you and snfaulkner to post. Because if** Suburban **Plankton flips Scum goon, the probability is that you, Dante, are next. If you are Town as you claim, then perhaps it is a good time to make the case. snfaulkner has been posting a helpful colored chart summing up the voting records. What do we have from you other than a claim that you are town, which frankly is not worth much more than the cyber-ink it is printed on?
I still think that there is a good chance that snfaulkner is the wolf. But I don’t know that at all. So if you could help us out with regards to making a case for yourself, it might be beneficial.
But it could be that you and Suburban Plankton were hoping to make a case against** DeadCat**, and when that didn’t materialize, you decided to vote against Suburban Plankton and put all your hopes on us lynching snfaulkner next and Scum winning with a tie coinflip. Is that what is going on? It is the only explanation I can find for everyone voting for Suburban Plankton. And it also explains Mystery#2. The night kill of PCM was made by the Alpha to protect himself against the player making the strongest case against him.
To start, can you tell me why you gave up the case against Mahaloth on Day 2 after voting for him on Day 1? You didn’t even vote for him on Day 3 after the confession. Because to me that looks like a throwaway vote on Day 1 with no follow-up, and a reluctance to vote for your partner on Day 3.
I had no real case against Mahaloth on Day 1 honestly. The Vote was justa throw aaway vote to gauge reaction. So when Day 2 came along, I let off on him. After he confessed on Day 3 it all seemed to suspect to me. I had already made a vote for Octarine that turned out was a bad idea - but I was weary of voting for Mahaloth. The confession just made me suspicious, so I left him alone.
**Dante **, you are the most experienced player left voting for **Suburban Plankton **. A mislynch just about dooms us. A good lynch guarantees us at least a tie. Why do you think every player is currently voting for SP, given that we believe there are two wolf players left?
While I appreciate the flattery, I can’t really speak for everyone else. It has been said already in everyone else’s posts. The reasons they gave is the reasons they voted. I myself am growing more suspicious of you at this point. Sure you have placed the last vote on Plankton but that could be a last ditch effort to look town. I guess we’ll see how it turns out.
Unfair **Dante **,
I am not trying to flatter you. You are experienced. I am trying to determine whether you are the Alpha and whether you have actually been thinking about the game. You have now said you suspected me, then did not suspect me, and now suspect me again in the space of a few posts. When I asked you to make a case against me before you said you did not think I am wolf. If you cannot make a case against me then I am looking from a reasonable explanation of the voting from you.
What I am trying to determine is whether you are a wolf or not, and if Town to explain what has happened toDay. I stand by my play over the past five days. I have made mistakes, but I cannot help that my personal schedule kept me from the game until everyone else had voted toDay. I also cannot help the I am really bothered that all the votes have gone one way. It makes me think I am voting the same way as a wolf…and that does not seem good.
OK, I’m going to attempt to do as Biotop suggested and analyse the remaining possible combinations of wolves. I am going to assume there are 2 remaining wolves at this point in game (it would be great if there were one and they are the Alpha, especially if it is SP, but I think that’s wishful thinking). I am also going to post from a ‘neutral’ point of view, in that I am not going to use the fact that I know I am town. So, here goes. NB: having started this exercise, and re-read the entire thread, I realised I didn’t get as much out of this as I thought I would. So the list parts of this post are largely based on voting records. There is then some further analysis at the end.
List of remaining players:
- Biotop
- Dante G
- Dead Cat
- HookerChemical
- snfaulkner
- Suburban Plankton
List of possible wolf combinations:
- Biotop and Dante G
- Biotop and Dead Cat
- Biotop and HookerChemical
- Biotop and snfaulkner
- Biotop and Suburban Plankton
- Dante G and Dead Cat
- Dante G and HookerChemical
- Dante G and Suburban Plankton
- Dead Cat and HookerChemical
- Dead Cat and snfaulkner
- Dead Cat and Suburban Plankton
- HookerChemical and snfaulkner
- HookerChemical and Suburban Plankton
- snfaulkner and Suburban Plankton
Analaysis of combinations:
-
Biotop and Dante G - quite a lot of hostility toDay, which could be a bit counter-productive for wolf on wolf at this stage in the game. On the other hand, while it might get one of them lynched it could help the other survive.
-
Biotop and Dead Cat - we seem to have agreed on quite a lot throughout the game, quite understandable for 2 town players but rather dangerous for 2 wolf players?
-
Biotop and HookerChemical - also seem to have been in agreement a lot, so the above comment applies.
-
Biotop and snfaulkner - both voted to mislynch WFTomba, but then both voted to lynch Mahaloth pre-confession, at a time when it was not a foregone conclusion. I think if a wolf team, their votes could have been better and safely spent away from Mahaloth. There was also some conflict between them on Day 4, prior to IRConfused’s role claim.
-
Biotop and Suburban Plankton - clash of styles with Biotop being very analytical and SP more focussing on general principles, I feel. Could make a good wolf team, both voted early for Octarine.
-
Dante G and Dead Cat - another clash of styles as above. Only voted the same way on the WFTomba mislynch.
-
Dante G and HookerChemical - as above, really.
-
Dante G and Suburban Plankton - both voted for Octarine on Day 3, Dante did not do so on Day 4.
-
Dead Cat and HookerChemical - have both been on the wrong side of the first two mislynches but both voted early for Mahaloth on Day 3, a strange wolf team move.
-
Dead Cat and snfaulkner - quite a lot of debate between them, particularly early on. I have been poking at snf all game, hard to see this as wolf on wolf.
-
Dead Cat and Suburban Plankton - outright hostility early toDay, and a few run ins earlier on in the game. Again, I can’t see a wolf on wolf case here.
-
HookerChemical and snfaulkner - don’t recall a huge amount of interaction. Neither has stuck with a vote on the other, but don’t think that tells us a great deal.
-
HookerChemical and Suburban Plankton - have been arguing, particularly toDay. I don’t get a wolf on wolf read for that.
-
snfaulkner and Suburban Plankton - SP voted for snf Day One, see below for more detail.
Other things I noticed on re-read:
In post 127, SP changes his (random) day 1 vote for Dante to snf. Later in the game (found it - post 372), he makes a point of posting “scum often bus other scum early on”, or some such. Now, it seems odd to me for scum to bus scum and then highlight the fact that this is a possibility. That being so, if SP does flip scum, that makes me a little less suspicious of snf. On the other hand, why hasn’t SP made more of this? On the other other hand, is it because it was actually a Day 1 bus after all?
In post 129, Dante makes a fairly strong case against Mahaloth.
Post 232 from Dante seems like quite a townie post.
On Day 2, Dante initially voted for snf but then switched fairly quickly to WFTomba. Not sure what to make of this as we know Dante and snf cannot both be wolves, so Dante cannot have been bussing snf. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for wolf Dante to change votes like this, so this gives Dante town cred to my mind.
Post 385 - snf votes for WFTomba, correctly identifies me as town, and correctly senses Mahaloth is a wolf. Overall townie post, I guess.
Post 407 by HookerChemical could be used as evidence against him.
Sorry those posts don’t have links to them, I have literally spent two hours straight re-reading the thread and the voting records and I have to get to bed. In conclusion, I am still very confident that SP flips scum at the end of toDay. But I am now less confident in who my candidate for the final wolf is. In fact, in many ways it would be easier if SP flips alpha - that would leave my choice between Biotop and HookerChemical, and in that scenario I think my vote goes to Biotop. Both have played a good game, both have perhaps had it easy with not many serious accusations against them, but of late I can see more potential scumminess in Biotop’s posts than Hooker’s. Something to do with getting quite confrontational with Dante today, in my view somewhat unnecessarily. If SP flips vanilla wolf, it becomes harder - all I can say is that right now, if one of snf and Dante is the alpha, I tend to believe it is snf.
DeadCat, I am sorry if I have come off as unnecessarily combative toDay. Dante, once again if I have overstepped my bounds I am sorry. This is just a game, and if you are ever in Central Virginia I would be happy to buy you a beer and discuss Mafia theory.
But right now we are in a tight game and Town probably cannot make any more mistakes. I have been trying to elicit responses from snfaulkner and **Dante ****G **so that I can try to determine what is going on. I even briefly considered voting for **DeadCat **just to see if either Dante or **snfaulkner **would jump the **SP **wagon if there was an alternative. But the idea seemed like it could backfire, so I abandoned it.
Barring what looks like it would have to be divine intervention, we appear to be lynching SP on Saturday. The theory is that snfaulkner or** Dante** is Alpha wolf, and they are sacrificing SP in order to hopefully survive our lynch the next Day and then win a tie a day hence. I think this is a tenuous theory at best, but I cannot find a better one. I am Town. I think** DeadCat** and Hooker are Town. Any theory that eliminates Suburban Plankton as a wolf must mean that I am wrong about **DeadCat **or Hooker. And that goes against everything I have been thinking. This is frustrating to say the least.
But I cannot completely rule out that either **DeadCat **or Hooker is Scum. And I know no one can rule me out. So all I could do was try and get Dante G or **snfaulkner **to explain why they are voting the way they are. I think Dante G is probably Town, because if he is Scum he might not have gone after me but instead taken my bait and eased on Suburban Plankton. snfaulkner did not reply to my inquisition, but this is a holiday week, so I cannot rule out family/work priorities. But he could have ignored me because he did not know what to do and smelled a trap.
If I am killed tonight I think snfaulkner is the most likely final wolf, IMHO. If **Suburban Plankton **flips Town then it will not really matter anymore.
I have not been able to come up with any theory that solves the mysteries of this game in any reasonable way, except one in which there are only 3 Scum. And this only really answers my Mystery #4. Most of what I have read outside this game does not back up that idea of 3 Scum total…but maybe.
I guess we will find out a lot Saturday. In trying to get answers I have probably burned away all my Town cred from earlier in the game. Oh well. it was still the right thing to do. And if Suburban Plankton flips Scum then I am prepared to vigorously defend myself toMorrow if need be, barring being dead.
Despite Biotop’s faith, I don’t have a ton to add today. I’ll be making a few quick responses and corrections. I’m working without my notes and on a phone, so please be forgiving.
Biotop voted after the confession of Mahaloth.
First off, there is a special hell reserved for customers that rage at employees who have no control over what they are raged at for, such as the brands of gravy stocked, but that’s better for a Pit thread. Next, one (alpha) wolf would be good and bad. If true, a mislynch is far more likely toDay but we are guaranteed another day. Finally, I’m still leaning strongly to the SP/Dante pair, but tomorrow must be evaluated when it comes. Nothing has done anything to sway me from my SP vote.
Lastly, Biotop, don’t take my comment’s as a personal attack. If you’re town, you’ve worked your ass off to hunt scum. If you’re scum, you’ve worked your ass looking like town and have earned that too. My comment’s about you not posting the analysis I wanted wee more a knock on my tendency to piggyback on you than anything else. When I began composing the post, my scumdar was pinging on you but in the interim you posted. That’s because I compose during breaks and project work and they can take over an hour to review and write. I get that your posts take a ton of effort and time. I love making that effort and want to win this.
Lastly, my Thanksgiving concluded with about a half dozen games of Avalon. It went over very well and I loved it. Happy holidays. Even to the wolves.
Fair enough. Let’s go out and get this done.
*We took Suburban Plankton to the center of town, despite his protestations.
“With my last breath,” said he, “I curse Dead Cat!”
He swung from the gibbet, and we watched with bated breath. After a long moment, his features twisted in a manner most grotesque. Teeth, claws, fur, and stench grew in equal measures until there was no longer a man before us, but a wolf most foul.
It might have been a moment to celebrate, but the memories of our dead friends weighed heavily on our much-diminished village.*
Suburban Plankton, the Werewolf Alpha, has been killed.
**It seems everything was wrapped up and silent, so I ended a few hours early before going out and doing weekend things.
Day 5 ends here. Night stuff can now happen. We’ll begin Day 6 at our regularly scheduled Monday time.
Our remaining players are, in most recent posting order:
Biotop
HookerChemical
DeadCat
DanteG
snfaulkner
**
Wow.