So far it looks like it DID move the needle. You reference 538. They see it so far having a 0.8% bump as of Friday 9/13, up to +2.8. That’s not enough to dramatically change the forecast, it is now 60% likelihood of a win in their model from 54%, but it is a move, and as high as she has been in their model. Knowing more about how much it moved the needle awaits more polling, especially in key states, which do not necessarily move in lockstep.
Personally I am happiest if there are no more debates. There is no assurance Trump would fail as grandiloquently another time. She accomplished what she needed to accomplish.
Indeed no one knows for sure whether or not Swift fans who are interested enough to go to vote.gov may be … overwhelmed by clicking another button and filling out a form, and possibly, gasp mailing it. Probable that overwhelms at least half of these silly young things. [sarcasm if that is not clear]
Judging by the second post above yours, many people were verifying their existing registrations. Presuming that they succeeded in doing so, there’d be no sense in then trying to register all over again.
I’ll guess, however, that bothering to verify one’s registration is likely to go along with intending to actually show up and vote (that is, many people who don’t think it’s necessary to verify do intend to and will show up to vote; but I’d expect that close to everybody who does bother to verify will show up to vote.)
Asking a genuine question - you don’t think there’s much value to be gained by VP Harris going after him for the next seven weeks about being a chickenshit and running scared from her? I would “hope” that that might be a chink in his armor.
It did. Polls after the debate are slightly better for Harris. Was it significant? Hard to say.
Yep, that is what I saw.
So, yep, a lot of people were energized. And checking to see if you are registered? Generally that mean someone who hasnt bothered to vote much, and needs to check. So, many of those will be “kinda new” voters.
Exactly.
and more MAGA bullshit0-
Social media posts baselessly claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris wore earrings equipped with audio devices in order to cheat during her debate with former President Donald Trump. Similar unfounded claims circulated before or after debates in 2016 and 2020 with Trump’s past political opponents.
Apparently she’s so dumb, she got the answers ahead of time (not just the questions), and she needed an earpiece to tell her exactly how to respond, and she needed help from the moderators, and still Trump easily won. /s (means “stupid person”)
Plus, she can listen to people talking in her ear, process what they’re telling her, and speak at the same time. That’s impressive.
Ooh, can we find out who was talking to Harris? Whoever it is is pretty fuckin’ smart, and kicked Trump’s ass in the debate. Maybe they should president.
Yes, it bumped it slightly, and I’m happy that I might have been wrong about this. If those numbers come from blue states, thoughm they don’t matter much, right? The real question, ISTM, is whether the needle has moved in the battleground states. Harry Enten of CNN:
…even post-debate there is no sign that those states are moving anywhere out of the toss-up range…
I haven’t been paying close attention to whether the needle has been moving in those particular states. Anyone have any idea? Here’s where they stood this evening on 538:
AZ Trump + .7
GA Trump + .7
MI Harris + 1.5
NV Harris + .1
NC Trump + .5
PA Harris + .5
WI Harris + 2.7
It’s a strange thing for Enten to say as there has been virtually no polling coming out of those states post debate yet. No one knows what the state specific impact is. I mean sure, there is no sign of improving … and no sign that it hasn’t improved … because there are no signs.
How many are truly undecided vs undeclared? That is, how many just don’t want to reveal a preference publicly for whatever reason? Also, how likely are any of them to vote rather than not vote and kvetch about the result after?
