Trump Crowds vs Biden Crowds

Politics & Elections
1

Today CNN has a ‘Campaign in Pictures’ story which highlights the huge disparity in crowd sizes between Biden and Trump:

The right wing Twitter folks have been posting things like this for a while - Trump driving down streets lined with people and appearing at events with thousands, while Biden and Harris were speaking to crowds generally measured in dozens of people. I think one Harris event had 7 people show up. But of course, it’s easy to take selective photos from certain angles to build the narrative you want, so I was simply discounting it as trickery. That is, until the CNN story showed the same thing.

I’m not making any claims about the relative popularity of the two: I’m just trying to understand what’s going on. Is the Biden team intentionally holding ‘fake’ rallies and not notifying the public for COVID reasons? Is there advance team incompetent and aren’t getting the word out? Because for the life of me I can’t otherwise understand the small crowds. I’m guessing even a Libertarian candidate would draw more people. So my assumption is that these aren’t ‘real’ rallies, but more like photo ops and opportunities to make speeches that get media coverage, and the people that are there are campaign helpers, secret service, the media, and not much else.

The other possibility, I guess, is that the left is totally motivated by hatred of Trump, and there is no enthusiasm for Biden at all. But even then, I’d expect at least hundreds of people to show up.

The more feverish people on the right think this is a sign that the polls are being manipulated, because there’s no way a ‘wave’ candidate would be getting this little amount of support. I think that’s crazy, so I’m assuming the Democrats simply aren’t holding traditional ‘rallies’.

On the other hand, Trump-supporting counter-demonstrators have been showing up at some of these (at least once outnumbering the biden supporters), so it doesn’t look like these are secret events. But if not, I’m at a loss to explain the almost nonexistent crowds for someone running 10 points higher than Trump in the polls.

Does anyone have an explanation, or speculation on the difference?

2

Since you ask for speculation, I’d say it’s because Biden is sincere about practicing safety measures to stop the spread of Covid and wants to protect the public as much as possible, contrasted to Trump, who holds superspreader events.

3

Biden isn’t allowing big-crowd campaign events, because it’s dangerous in the COVID era. Biden actually cares about his supporters. That’s the difference.

4

I’ve argued with Trump supporters about this a while. Breadth of support trumps intensity of support. The fact that Trump can draw huge crowds, and Biden can’t, means nothing. A tepid/unenthusiastic counts just as much as an intense, passionate vote - a vote is a vote. If Biden can get 80 million unenthusiastic Democratic votes, that totally trumps 70 million intense and fervent Trump votes.

This is why Biden can still hold a double-digit poll lead while still only getting tiny crowds. Trump voters often hold up Trump’s huge crowds as proof that the polls are fake, not understanding that these two things aren’t contradictory.

5

Well yeah, I get that. And I think it’s a reasonable and responsible thing to do. But how does that work? Are they turning people away? Hiding the location so no one shows up? How are Trump supporters finding out about these if they are not being advertised, and if they are being advertised, why aren’t there crowds outside wanting to get in?

If you’ve seen a notice for one of these events, domthey actually tell people to stay away?

The confusing part is just how small these things are. Some of them involve maybe a dozen people. You’d think that even with social distancing they could put a few hundred people in an outdoor event. The optics of this are terrible.

6

Biden is not promoting large events at large capacity venues. As importantly, people are showing support for the importance of social distancing during a deadly pandemic by not showing to super spreader events and by supporting science and doctors. Finally, this is how Democrats and anti-Trumpers are choosing to contrast themselves from the MAGATS.

To the contrary.

7

My best guess is - almost nobody really loves Biden (other than, maybe, his family). You could never form a cult around someone like Biden. Someone like Obama or Trump, yes, but not Biden. The guy just does not inspire.

That’s not meant as a diss against Biden, just an observation. Biden could never get a cult of personality to rally around him. Trump inspires ferocious adoration or hatred, but one way or another, he gets people’s fire burning.

It doesn’t mean Biden will lose, nor does it mean the polls are fake. But Biden simply has no magnetism, no charisma. The guy is plain white bread.

8

I can buy all that. It fits in with my theory that Democrats are motivated more by hatred of Trump than love of Biden. But still… These ‘crowds’ are really small. I had more people at my wedding. If it were just about enthusiasm, I would still expect larger crowds.

9

It’s not about enthusiasm – Biden doesn’t go to places that would even allow a large crowd, and they don’t admit a large crowd, and they don’t ask supporters to come (except for a relatively small number at the car events). Trump does the opposite. Back during the primary, Biden did get large crowds (along with most of the other candidates), and then COVID came and they stopped.

This isn’t complicated.

10

Put simply, Biden commands a “meh” majority of voters. Trump commands a passionate minority.

11

It does lead to the question, though, of why Biden even bothers to hold rallies when only a few dozen people will show up. For that time, energy and effort, he might as well do something else. It takes a lot of trouble to travel that far to talk to just a few supporters in person, and he’s entering the home stretch of the campaign.

Even staying at home making a few YouTube videos would be a better use of his time.

12

Yeah, this is not a normal campaign season. Biden isn’t trying to draw large crowds. It’s not safe or responsible.

Trump on the other hand lives for adulation and craves crowds as large as possible, not giving the slightest shit about any danger to his followers. Plus he has his hardcore group of followers, some I’ve heard follow him from rally to rally.

If it was a more normal, pandemic-free campaign season Biden may still have not gotten crowds as large as trump, but as mentioned, that’s not a sign of breadth of support, trump simply has created a cult of personality with a good-sized minority of rabid supporters.

13

It’s always great when you can answer your own questions.

14

I can tell you you nailed in one as I noticed when a cousin that fell for that Republican talking point fell for it in Facebook recently.

There was a video of Bernie at a rally in support of Biden that seemingly had very few people, what the video missed was the rally was in a park with a gentle slope or mountain. With hundreds of people with families or small groups separated by more than 6 feet sitting on the lawn.

15

Are you just ignoring all the posts that say that Biden isn’t trying to get big crowds?

I like candidates who don’t try and kill their people during a pandemic.

16

As I mentioned, it depends on the rally and some are organized with hundreds in attendance, just separated enough…

To allow some on Facebook and other places to mislead others.

17

Trump likes voters who live just long enough to vote for him.

18

As has been said, it means nothing. Trump won the College in 2016, not the popular vote. If crowds were the only worthy measure, then his crowds would have converted into a popular vote victory in 2016 too.

19

These articles, although from four years ago, may be relevant this time around as well:

20

Oh shush. Velocity and Sam have a nice little “This proves that no one likes Biden” narrative going, and they’re enjoying it. Why ruin it with quibbles and facts and plausible rationales?