While of course Trump and his lackeys are saying his crowds are “Yuge!”. They’ve even resorted to using imagery from other gatherings to obfuscate his crowd size. However, imagery from journalists shows his crowd sizes are pretty meagre. Take yesterday’s rally. Trump campaign claims 25,000 people but it is quite obviously much smaller than that. I’ve seen estimates from ~2000 - 3000. This isn’t about why Trump’s ego needs to inflate the numbers. That’s obvious. But rather, why is seemingly so popular in polls, but isn’t drawing crowds?
One possibility I’ve considered is that his crowd sizes are actually pretty typical, but by inflating the numbers he is making them seem small.
Other possibilities:
People are willing to say they support Trump, but don’t want to be seen in public supporting him.
Supporters are willing to vote for him, but it is a “hold your nose and vote R” rather than being particularly inspired by Trump, in particular, sufficiently to come to a rally.
I think there’s Trump fatigue. I’m not suggesting the Trump cult is over, but the “next exciting thing” gets old after a bit. Trump delivering his same old greatest hits? I’m sure there’s a ton of still-MAGAs who think, “Meh. I’d rather watch the NASCAR on tv.”
Answering a poll is easy; actually getting off your ass and doing something is hard.
He used to get lots of people off their asses. That he apparently no longer can do that to the same extent suggests that even his hard-core supporters are getting tired of him. I suspect more and more are just deciding to stay home. I hope that translates to the actual election.
The court cases are a major factor, I think. While most of his voters say they’ll continue to support him even if convicted, about 20% are likely to stop supporting him. That’s a major drop just in polling, and it almost has to be a bigger factor in actually going out in public to support him.
I believe the Bronx rally was in a public park. I wonder how many people were just passing by and decided to stop and check out the freak show for a little while. Sorta like looking at the monkeys in the zoo for free.
I’m inclined to think this is the more likely explanation for the discrepancy between his polling numbers and poor rally attendance. Outside of the MAGA cult, Trump is at best lukewarm even among the “R” crowd, but he’s still getting their vote because of “R” policies like taxes, regulation, and Supreme Court appointments. I suspect the rest of his polling numbers are boosted by some swing voters who, for whatever reasons, are just anti-Biden. The rally-attending MAGA cult is probably smaller than it used to be because of Trump fatigue, not to mention that many of them are in jail, which doesn’t exactly tend to elicit enthusiastic support from the others!
Naw, these measurements are taken during his speeches. And he isn’t always 2 hours late. And ‘waiting around for 2 hours isn’t fun’ is not a good argument to make re: the Trumpheads (the groupies and merchants) and those who show up hours before the rallies.
There is definite Trump fatigue out there. And his constant yammering about crowd sizes makes it an easy thing to mock. Here’s a Twitter thread from a data analyst who uses pictures of Trump rallies to estimate crowd sizes, looking at the Trump campaigns claim of “80-100k” at a rally in Jersey City recently, in a venue which holds just 36,000, and there wasn’t even half that as caught by a photograph made by someone flying over the venue during Trump’s speech:
Yeah. I attend Canadian Football League games in a stadium that only seats about 25,000 people, and our crowds are way bigger than his, even the last few years that we haven’t been having sell-out games.
He’s also not traveling to Trump friendly locations. He’s stuck in New York for the duration of his trial.
But, yeah, primarily it’s because his act has gotten old and boring. In 2016, he was able to channel the grievances of a certain enthusiastic section of America. Now, he’s mainly bloviating about his own grievances. I don’t think it connects.
Mostly my take, plus, well, the obvious. I may love a band, and enjoy a live show. But after going to 2-4 in a four year period, I may well still love the band, but the cost, effort, and time involved in seeing the live act, especially if I already own the albums as it were, may just be too much. Especially if I’ve bought all the merch I want AND supported the bands last couple of “exclusive” projects, and supported a band member after that really disastrous court case (DUI, stealing from the company, sex with inappropriate individuals)
The difference between @Moriarty and me perhaps, is that I still suspect they love the band, and will likely still vote, but there’s a marked difference in energy.
Same here. There does appear to be some MAGAts who follow Trump around like he’s the Grateful Dead or Phish. One person interviewed in the Bronx claimed that a lot of the cars at Trump’s rally were from out of state like Texas, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, etc., etc. Though I did see an interview with a young male Trump supporter who said he was from Queens.
Trump has had venues turn him down either because he still owes them money from past events or because they didn’t think he would pay them. Trump’s campaign is suffering from a dearth in funding which is odd given he’s a super rich billionaire.
This right here might be the biggest reason. Part of Trump’s attraction is that he’s a freak show. You go to watch him because he’s entertaining and lately he’s getting up on stage and complaining about the same thing over and over. Once in a while he throws in something new, “Biden tried to assassinate me!” but otherwise it’s like going to a Herman’s Hermits concernt. You’re not going to hear anything new.
His devoted followers who attend all his gatherings must have a super high tolerance for tedium. He regaled his Bronx crowd with tales of his business skills, taking them along as he builds skating rinks and golf courses like no one has ever seen before. Not in the Bronx, but you can believe they’re nice. AIUI, someone in the crowd passed out, and when someone called for water, trump reached under his podium, produced a bottle, and sipped it as he watched the person being attended to.
