Although I think it is quite likely that cowardly short fingered Trump will find a lame excuse to withdraw before November, I’ve come to the realisation it would be a complete disaster for that to happen. If Trump quits the race or even worse is replaced by another candidate by the RNC then the ideology he has fostered will continue to hang around US politics as a foul miasma that could re-erupt at any time. His supporters will be spouting conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory about how he could have won but the system was “rigged” and no matter what Trump’s excuse is they’ll claim he was somehow pressured into withdrawing against his will.
No, what needs to happen, is Trump needs to go the election and get defeated overwhelmingly in such a clear fashion that even his hardened supporters come to the realisation that the US public overwhelmingly rejects Trumps ideas. Any other outcome will lead to some other demagogue trying the same route as Trump in 2020 or 2024 and Trump’s current supporters will flock to whoever it is believing that Trump never had a chance.
Which leads me to consider, should some of those that want to see Trump’s ideas completely defeated actually encourage Trump’s supporters at least until it’s closer to the election, just to try and reduce the chances that Trump does withdraw or get replaced?
Just like how they learned in 2012 not to nominate a multi-millionaire investor who’d claim that his business success qualified him to be president?
Trump’s supporters don’t learn. They voted for people while they were angry, they aren’t happy with how that turned out, so now they’re voting for someone while they’re furious and expecting him to make it better. The things they’re angry about, the deficits and gridlock, were caused by the people they voted into office. Now they’ve nominated someone to do more of the same, but dialed up to 11.
They couldn’t admit they were wrong after George W. Bush started disastrous wars, ran up debt, and crashed the economy. Trump could lose in a landslide and Hillary preside over a time of unprecedented peace and prosperity and they couldn’t admit they were wrong. They have decades of their lives invested in their righteous anger; it’s too late to turn back now.
If wars frequently don’t cause those supporting the losing side to realize they were wrong or that a majority of fellow countrymen and women were against them, I don’t see how an election would do so. The results of 2008 or 2012 did not repudiate any particular proposed policy or philosophy of the Republican party.
Both Trump and Clinton have made the election about their personalities and personas even more than the usual presidential elections have been. It would be relatively easy for a Trump supporter to later still support Trump’s ideas but come to accept that Trump was too flawed, unstable, or baggage-laden a messenger for those ideas.
You’re right that a certain percentage of true believers will not repudiate Trump’s ideology no matter what happens. But a solid defeat at the polls in November would discourage other opportunist demagogues from trying to emulate Trump, since they’ll see how little support he really got. It will also make it more likely that the RNC changes the rules around to prevent this happening again, that is if the RNC even survives this election.
Other demagogues would say they wouldn’t make Trump’s obvious mistakes.
I think that him quitting might be slightly more likely to stop the movement than him losing big. First, they’ll say the election is rigged. Sure it’s stupid, but we’re talking birthers here. Second they’ll say that the Republican establishment stabbed him in the back, which is kind of true, especially if they pull money. They’ll actually stab him in the front and he’d deserve it, but you won’t be able to convince them of that. How could he lose? Everyone they know supports him, and look at those rallies.
If he quit, maybe some would call him a loser and a quitter. It could help.
From what I’ve read, they are already claiming that anything less than a victory for Trump means the election was rigged, so I don’t think they’ll learn anything.
“Everyone says I won the election. OK? I won. Crooked Hillary, she came up to me - you gotta see her, who’d vote for a face like that? - and said ‘Mr. Trump, you would’ve won, you would’ve won if the system hadn’t been rigged’. I could’ve sued them.”
I doubt it, he can make up a fake medical reason, then he can use his trademark dog whistle technique to hint that it was a big conspiracy and that “the corrupt system” forced him to drop out. His followers would lap that up. If the election goes ahead and he loses big, thats more of a direct proof of what a loser he is.
Impossible. Trump is so healthy. He’s got the best health. He’s the healthiest presidential candidate ever. Nobody hits Trump’s health. Only a loser would hit Trump on his health. Anyone who hits him on his health, either they don’t know what they’re talking about, or they know more than anyone realizes - and there’s probably something going on there, folks.
This is 100 percent correct - I couldn’t have worded it better. They just don’t learn. They don’t learn because they don’t live in a world based on facts; they are governed by their own intuitions, religions, superstitions, and other fuzzy notions. Even among those who aren’t particularly religious, they reject science because they don’t want to give up their off-road vehicles or pay more in taxes.
As you say, they’re heavily invested into these ideas. They have developed friendships and professional relationships based on bonds with like-minded people. They’re not going back until a majority of people in this country take over and push them aside. I don’t know when that will be. But I strongly suspect we’re in for a long, rough ride until that happens, no matter who’s president.
No, I don’t think it’ll discourage them at all. Trump will most likely lose because he is an uncontrollable buffoon, and even some people who hate Hillary to her core are now having serious reservations about his mental state and might end up voting Johnson instead or simply sit this one out and go down the ballot.
But the damage is already done, in my view. Trump’s campaign has already demonstrated that a more cunning, calculating, and self-disciplined demagogue, like Ted Cruz for instance, could build a movement and make fascism the next big thing in American politics. There is not a shred of doubt in my mind that Donald Trump has proven that fascism can be democratically supported in this country, regardless of the outcome in November.
In fact, I could see a scenario in which Hillary Clinton could win but still have extreme difficulty governing effectively. We could have an election in which people don’t vote for Trump but are nevertheless inspired to come out and vote down-ballot against Hillary, thereby preserving a more partisan and extreme congress with a president they love to hate even more than Obama.
Maybe I’m just too optimistic but I think that a solid convincing defeat in November will close the door to the fascist path to power in the US for at least 20 years. Trump supporters make a lot of noise, but really the core group of supporters are less than 20 percent of the eligible voting population. That’s disturbing on its own, but it’s not enough for them to gain power.
Ted Cruz was very nearly the 2016 GOP nominee. When it looked like he was the last chance to stop Trump, GOP officials started endorsing him. If Cruz had landed the nomination, things would be much worse. He’s smart enough to cause way more domestic damage than Trump ever could. He’s strongly disliked in Congress, but not enough to prevent the GOP from getting in line behind him, which would vastly reduce the chances of down-ticket losses for the GOP. Cruz would have run a very tight campaign, and would have had an excellent chance of beating Hillary, due to her strong disapproval rating (deserved or not). This is terrifying because it could still happen in 2020.
The GOP was run over by the Trump Train this year, and they’re still getting dragged along the tracks. But the rest of us narrowly avoided getting hit by the Cruz Car instead. Cruz had good enough instincts to distance himself from Trump, which could help him in 2020. Trump is a stupid terrible person, but Cruz is a smart terrible person who appeals to a lot of the same instincts that put Trump on the ticket.
Ted Cruz may be a bad person, but, honestly, I think he could be trusted to not screw up NATO and start an avalanche of international chaos that results in a nuclear war.
We as a political society are screwed either way because of Trump. Regardless of how this turns out he has shown that you can stand up and say the most horrific and mean spirtied things and have millions of people send you money and you will be talked about non-stop in the media.
All Trump has done is make it profitable for others like him to pollute a political system and conversation that badly needs civility.
If Trump continues as he’s been doing, he will alienate everyone outside his Teanut Gallery base, and the result will be an electoral bloodbath for the GOP.
If Trump is somehow pushed out by the party, his Teanut Gallery base will go apeshit and reject any substitute candidate, and the result will be an electoral bloodbath for the GOP.
If Trump actually chose to quit voluntarily for some reason, his Teanut Gallery base will assume he was forced out behind the scenes and respond as above, and the result will be an electoral bloodbath for the GOP.
I think if Trump were more disciplined, more articulate, and less obviously unhinged, he’d probably win against Clinton. If Trump gets trounced, his ideas aren’t going away. Someone with Trump’s ideas and more political polish will see that Trump got a third of Americans to vote for him and realize he could get more by simply putting a more acceptable face on Trump’s views. If the Democrats nominate a bad candidate that year, he could win.
In other words, what Dob said
And millions of Americans will, to paraphrase Kurt Vonnegut, go on warming themselves with their secretly virtuous insides.
At this point, the GOP Establishment is terrified that if they press him too hard to change his ways, he’ll start publicly ranting about being “stabbed in the back” by “very dishonest” Republican business-as-usual politicians, which would discourage his followers from voting for downticket Republicans who give il Doofus anything but unqualified enthusiastic support (which in turn would cause those candidates to lose the more rational voters).