We’re seeing more and more mainstream opposition to the Trump Campaingn from increasingly more high profile Republicans in the last month or so. First were a few guys who were retiring or were likely to lose anyway, so they had nothing to lose. But now we see a sitting (four term) Senator rejecting him, and a full-page ad signed by 50 former high ranking Republican Intelligence Officers opposing him publicly.
In my area, a Rep. who represents a district that has never elected a Democrat in it’s entire existence and wasn’t going to this time, has put out ads disavowing Trump.
As the polls continue to widen in Clinton’s favor and Trump going back to his name calling and conspiracies theories and outright lies, how much longer will elected R’s stay in support? What’s in it for them? Every statement of support and refusal to denounce him is Democratic fodder for the next election. It’s a lose/lose situation but the better loss, it seems to me, is to distance yourself from the big loser.
The Republicans are seeing the light. They are realizing that having an “I endorsed Trump” on their resume will be a death sentence in future elections.
Yes, it is officially over. Trump inciting violence against the opposition is the last fucking straw. But beyond that, the GOP needs to be completely and utterly dismantled. It should not exist.
It pains me to say it, but I agree that Cruz is in the Pole Position for 2020 right now. Some moderate Republican Governor has a free shot at the front row if he/she jumps away from Trump real soon.
Wishful thinking. Sorry, but the spin is already out there that Trump was calling for “political unity and strength” from supporters of the 2nd Amendment. He has (not very) plausible deniability on this.
Not gonna happen. FiveThirtyEight’s Now-cast (what if the vote were held today) shows him at 40% of the popular vote, the lowest it’s been so far.
He’ll lose, and lose convincingly, but I still believe the campaign will play out to the bitter end. I will be happy to be proved wrong, I think, but not if it gives Hillary imperial ambitions.
It freaking well should become a torrent, now that Trump has called for the assassination of his political opponents. And there is NO OTHER way to spin this. He tried to be cute in his wording about calling for “The second amendment folks” to solve the problem of Clinton appointing judges after she’s elected. Not cute enough.
I don’t want this to be over until Trump has an apoplectic rage induced meltdown on the debate stage against Hillary, and his security is forced to drag him away in handcuffs, into a padded van, straight to a mental institution.
What is this, the 50th “last straw”? I’ve lots count.
No one seems to remember a few years ago when Democrats were running away from Obama like chickens form a burning henhouse. Remember the Democratic Congresscritter who wouldn’t even say whether she voted for Obama or not? It was only 2 years ago, guys. And the Democrats got trounced. Now, it’s the Republican’s turn. The GOP has pretty much surrendered the presidency for quite a few election cycles now, so if Trump goes down in defeat, it shouldn’t be all that surprising.
From Wikipedia (2014 Midterm elections):
*The elections saw sweeping gains by the Republican Party in the Senate, House, and in numerous gubernatorial, state, and local races. The Republicans gained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006, and increased their majority in the House.[6] The Republicans also gained two seats in governors’ races.[7]
Overall, the elections resulted in the largest Republican majority in the entire country in nearly a century, with 54 seats in the Senate, 247 (56.78%) in the House, 31 governorships (62%), and 68 state legislative chambers. Moreover, Republicans gained their largest majority in the House since 1928, the largest majority in Congress overall since 1928, and the largest majority of state legislatures since 1928.[8][9][10]
Political scientist Gary C. Jacobson argues that the voters treated the election as a referendum on the economy and especially on Obama’s presidency. The result was the most partisan, nationalized, and president-centered midterm election in at least 60 years.[11]*
From the trenches: [INDENT][INDENT][INDENT] The closer up you are to members of the GOP congressional leadership, the more striking their timidity and lack of control over the party is. I had a conversation with a senior House Republican last week who told me that Trump “acts like a seven-year-old” and “makes me want to leave politics altogether.” But that member was a Trump delegate and has never publicly rebuked Trump. If he did, he’d probably lose his leadership position in the conference. [/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT] Cite.
Anything that is an improvement on that will be spun as a “big win” for Trump;
“Well, that was quite a debate”
“Yes Bob, I think we have to give the win to Trump tonight”
“You think so? What about when he told the moderator that he was a couple of shades too dark, and said that Ms. Clinton should peddle herself with the other streetwalkers?”
“Well Bob, at least he didn’t use the “N” word, or call Ms. Clinton a total slut. So that’s really a victory for him, isn’t it?”
According to the N.Y. Times, Trump’s support has plummeted among women due to recent remarks: his comment about sexual harassment and his insult against Mrs. Khan, the mother of the slain Muslim soldier. Trump’s chances, as shown at prediction markets like Betfair, have fallen again. It is now much more likely that Clinton will get Georgia’s electoral votes than that Trump will get Ohio’s or Florida’s.
The chance of a Democratic Senate is 67%. Unfortunately, the House of Representatives seems very likely to remain in GOP hands: most of the races there are just not competitive. There are 197 House races where Demo’s chance is 1% or less; and 163 races where the GOP chance is 1% or less. Among all 435 seats up for grabs in the House, there are only 27 races where the underdog is shown with a chance of 25% or more! :eek: Even if the Demos win MN-3 and PA-6, where their chances are shown as 17%, and also win all seats where their chance is 20% or more, they’ll still need NY-21 or NY-23 (14%) to get a House majority.
But, at least Hillary won’t need the House to appoint judges. We’ll still have dysfunctional government with the haters having veto over the budget. But the threat of Trump may be passing.
Ooops. Cockpit error on this calculation. :o Too bad about the 5-minute edit window.
If the Democrats win either MN-3 or PA-6 along with all seats where their chance is 20% or more they get a House majority! They don’t need NY-21 or NY-23.
Trump’s shtick is that he’s a winner. Once that supposition is shattered, he’s got nothing. Trump’s low in the polling averages was 36.2%, so my goal is optimistic. But Trump’s white supremacy is toxic to the republic and needs to be slapped down.