Suppose that Biden loses to Trump in November. It’s no secret that Trump and the GOP has been intending to cut off aid for Ukraine if they take back power - and they already hold the House. If Trump wins, it’s a good bet that that House (R) majority will likely also become redder as well, given the correlating factors.
Congress and the White House already passed a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine earlier this year. Problem is, that aid was dependent on a Ukraine-supportive Commander in Chief (Biden) - and it is an aid package that would take a long time to fully deliver. Even if Biden and Congress were to pass a similar bill for Ukraine this December (as Biden’s last gesture of support for Ukraine and middle finger to Trump,) it’s possible that Trump could use his commander power to put a halt to such aid actually being delivered - order the C-17s to stop flying to Europe, order the ships to stop ferrying supplies, etc.
What that means, then, is that if any “Last package before we turn off the light and close the door” aid is teed up and approved by Congress and Biden this November or December, it has to be all delivered in one big fell swoop. It must be all delivered before Inauguration Day 2025, lest Trump try to put a stop to it. Furthermore, it must be substantial enough to tide Ukraine over for a while longer yet, given that European-NATO partners still don’t seem to be contributing anywhere near enough on their own. So it would have to be something like a veritable small army’s worth of arms and supplies, but transported in 1-2 months’ time.
Would this work?
After the election, Biden could, on his own authority and with the acquiescence of Poland, deploy US troops to the Ukrainian border in Poland and immediately evacuate the troops, leaving all of their weapons and equipment behind where they will be collected by Ukrainian forces while Poland looks the other way.
What kind of aid could be provided that would protect Ukraine against Trump’s fascination with nuclear weapons? Day one dictator Trump is going to get on the phone to his BFF Putin and tell him that not only are tactical nukes now allowed, they’re also exciting! End the conflict in a single day! And then he’ll turn around and blame Biden, saying Biden somehow secretly ordered it to cover up his son’s Burisma crimes.
As a legal matter, the President does not have the authority to refuse to spend funds that have been duly appropriated by Congress per the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. That of course doesn’t mean that Trump won’t try it – in fact he already tried to impound Ukrainian military funds during his term. And it will be the Supreme Court who decides if any such impoundment is Constitutional – a court which previously allowed Trump to divert military funds to pay for his border wall (and this was before Barrett replaced RBG).
Bumping this thread a bit since JD Vance is now Trump’s VP pick. Vance is well known as being one of the most anti-Ukraine voices in Congress and there’s a decent chance that Trump is going to win the election and Vance would be a powerful influence in Trump’s ear.
The R’s will control the House but perhaps enough could be persuaded to pass one big package for Ukraine in Nov-Dec 2024 in time for a spree of deliveries to be done in Jan 2025 before Inauguration Day.