CNN/SSRS isn’t an online poll, and I’ve never seen any site that reported it as unreliable to that extent.
I got that from their own site. They phone the landlines, and do “online surveys” to catch those who don’t have landlines.
I agree with you that the ‘landlines’ element doesn’t explain such results.
However, I can’t see how anyone could argue that it doesn’t contribute to Rasmussen’s consistently different results as compared with other pollsters (Gallup etc.) who DO call mobile phones as well as landlines.
Agree with all of the above.
I apologize for my lack of clarity. I didn’t mean to imply that it was incorrect that Rasmussen was heavily dependent on landlines. I meant that it was incorrect that their use of landlines completely explained which way they leaned. There have been long time periods where they have leaned one way followed by long time periods where they have leaned the other way. Use of landlines was constant throughout so it is not explanatory.
Perhaps you could email them and ask them?
You quoted statements, not questions. I don’t have anything to ask them.
Oh, I see.
Whatever the details of the Rasmussen methods (now and over time) may be, 538 certainly doesn’t appear to think much of them. In this page examining the question ‘are Democrats or Republicans Winning the Race for Congress,’ Rasmussen results are visible in the table only if one clicks on “show more.” Generic ballot Polls | FiveThirtyEight
The firm’s founder certainly seems to be firmly on the right/libertarian end of political views. One might speculate that he gets the polling results he wants, rather than the polling results that accurately reflect reality.
That’s because the last time Rasmussen polled this question was a month ago. I’ll note that both Rasmussen generic ballot polls were pretty much in line with other pollsters at the time they were taken.
538 rates them a C+. They are middle of the road. Not great. Not horrible. They tend to lean Republican, but they generally do so in a reliable way when they are polling things that can be tested.
Their Trump job approval polling is slightly different. For the most part they’re polling of goes up and down along with everyone else’s. When Rasmussen reports that Trump is getting more popular, almost all the time that will be reflected in the results reported by other pollsters as well. The same goes for when Trump’s job approval is waning.
The difference here is that they are using a likely voter screen. It is typical among all pollsters that a likely voter screen will give a slightly more Republican leaning result. This is not necessarily an indication of anything shady going. This could represent reality perfectly.
The thing that indicates something shady going on is that it looks like the change likely voter models from time to time for reasons unexplained. The have a likely voter model that leans D+0-5, one that leans R+0-5, and one that leans R+0-10 at a minimum. There’s a few other stretches where it looks like they had other even weirder stuff going on like at the beginning of the term.
They appear to be using the R+5-10 consistently since around Sep 2017. As long as they stick with this model we can still get useful information from their polling, but it’s this switching from model to model that invalidates any statements like, “Trump is polling at his highest level since June of last year.” Also that June number also marks a very weird stretch where they steeply go from peak outlier to even then back to R+5-10 over the course of three months. None of that looks natural statistically.
How do you know they’re switching “models”? What if the Republican-ness of the likely voter population is just waxing and waning along with Trump’s popularity?
It’s the simplest explanation that fits the facts. In plotting the difference between Rasmussen and non-Rassmussen you see a slightly noisy line that is mostly level for weeks or months that suddenly jumps to a new level that it sits at for weeks and months. It doesn’t do things smoothly the way public opinion changes. It shows this punctuated equilibrium that really doesn’t look natural.
I urge anyone who has the ability to grab the data as I have shown how to do above and see for yourself. Looking at the entire eight years of the Obama administration is particularly illustrative.
ETA: Oh, and why is models in quotes? Rasmussen says they are using a likely voter model. I didn’t make that word up.
Most of the time, when I’ve seen it discussed, it’s called a likely voter “screen”, but it putting model in quotes wasn’t intended as a dig at you or anything. The word model is fine I suppose.
Rasmussen actually does a pretty good job of explaining their methodology:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology
In that first link they say:
I haven’t seen anyone claim they’re changing those questions periodically though.
It would be really handy if you could share your plots and data with us, so we could see it first hand.
I did you one better. I gave you the tools to do your own data exploration. Anyone can post a picture of anything they want. Instead of taking that easy route, I’m handing you the keys to the kingdom.
I don’t think they’re really changing the questions or anything like that.
Here’s a simple example of a likely voter screen…
Q: On a scale of 1-10 (10 highest), how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election.
If I define likely voter as someone who answers 7 or higher, I might get a different result than if I define likely voter as someone who answers 9 or 10.
This is oversimplified but is the essence of what I think is going on. They’re just tweaking things to push the needle a little bit. Everything they’re doing is in keeping with their stated methodology they’re just making small adjustments. Furthermore, they’ve been at this polling business for a long time so they know just how to tweak things to move the needle the appropriate amount.
Here’s a couple of back to back 16 month data sets from the Obama years. Note: I’m going to use spoiler tags here because each set is in the neighborhood of 480 rows. I think it should be pretty easy to cut and paste these into a spreadsheet.
May 2012 - Aug 2013
Date Rasmussen Non-Rassmussen Diff
5/1/12 -3.0 0.6 -3.6
5/2/12 -3.0 0.7 -3.7
5/3/12 -3.5 0.9 -4.4
5/4/12 -4.1 0.7 -4.8
5/5/12 -4.5 0.6 -5.1
5/6/12 -4.4 0.3 -4.7
5/7/12 -4.4 -0.3 -4.2
5/8/12 -4.4 -0.2 -4.3
5/9/12 -4.7 -0.1 -4.6
5/10/12 -5.1 -0.4 -4.6
5/11/12 -5.1 -0.8 -4.4
5/12/12 -5.3 -0.7 -4.6
5/13/12 -5.1 -0.6 -4.6
5/14/12 -4.9 -0.5 -4.4
5/15/12 -4.3 -0.4 -3.9
5/16/12 -3.6 -0.4 -3.2
5/17/12 -3.2 -0.5 -2.7
5/18/12 -2.4 -0.6 -1.9
5/19/12 -1.7 -0.5 -1.2
5/20/12 -1.3 -0.3 -1.0
5/21/12 -1.3 -0.5 -0.8
5/22/12 -0.9 0.0 -1.0
5/23/12 -0.7 0.1 -0.8
5/24/12 -0.5 0.3 -0.8
5/25/12 -0.7 0.1 -0.8
5/26/12 -1.2 0.1 -1.3
5/27/12 -1.5 0.1 -1.6
5/28/12 -1.9 -0.2 -1.7
5/29/12 -1.9 0.1 -2.0
5/30/12 -2.3 -0.1 -2.3
5/31/12 -2.7 0.1 -2.8
6/1/12 -2.9 0.2 -3.2
6/2/12 -3.1 0.3 -3.4
6/3/12 -3.4 0.4 -3.8
6/4/12 -3.6 -0.2 -3.4
6/5/12 -3.9 0.4 -4.2
6/6/12 -4.1 0.3 -4.3
6/7/12 -4.1 0.0 -4.1
6/8/12 -4.1 -0.3 -3.8
6/9/12 -4.1 -0.5 -3.6
6/10/12 -4.1 -0.6 -3.4
6/11/12 -4.3 -0.9 -3.4
6/12/12 -4.3 -0.7 -3.6
6/13/12 -4.5 -1.2 -3.3
6/14/12 -4.9 -1.3 -3.7
6/15/12 -5.4 -1.4 -4.0
6/16/12 -5.7 -1.2 -4.4
6/17/12 -5.9 -1.6 -4.3
6/18/12 -5.9 -2.2 -3.7
6/19/12 -6.0 -1.9 -4.1
6/20/12 -5.9 -2.0 -4.0
6/21/12 -5.8 -2.1 -3.6
6/22/12 -5.7 -1.9 -3.7
6/23/12 -5.7 -1.7 -4.0
6/24/12 -5.7 -1.5 -4.1
6/25/12 -5.7 -1.8 -3.9
6/26/12 -5.5 -1.9 -3.6
6/27/12 -5.5 -1.9 -3.6
6/28/12 -5.2 -1.7 -3.6
6/29/12 -4.4 -1.4 -3.0
6/30/12 -3.7 -1.4 -2.3
7/1/12 -3.3 -1.8 -1.5
7/2/12 -3.5 -1.5 -2.0
7/3/12 -3.4 -1.2 -2.2
7/4/12 -3.5 -1.4 -2.1
7/5/12 -3.4 -1.3 -2.1
7/6/12 -3.5 -0.9 -2.5
7/7/12 -3.8 -0.9 -2.9
7/8/12 -3.9 -1.0 -2.9
7/9/12 -3.8 -1.2 -2.6
7/10/12 -3.7 -0.9 -2.8
7/11/12 -3.7 -0.9 -2.8
7/12/12 -3.7 -0.8 -2.9
7/13/12 -3.9 -1.0 -2.9
7/14/12 -4.0 -1.1 -2.9
7/15/12 -4.0 -1.5 -2.5
7/16/12 -3.8 -1.9 -1.9
7/17/12 -3.5 -2.2 -1.3
7/18/12 -3.3 -1.9 -1.4
7/19/12 -3.3 -2.0 -1.4
7/20/12 -3.5 -2.1 -1.4
7/21/12 -3.9 -2.1 -1.8
7/22/12 -4.1 -2.1 -1.9
7/23/12 -4.1 -2.4 -1.7
7/24/12 -4.0 -2.4 -1.6
7/25/12 -4.2 -2.6 -1.6
7/26/12 -4.6 -2.6 -2.0
7/27/12 -4.9 -2.8 -2.1
7/28/12 -5.1 -2.8 -2.3
7/29/12 -5.1 -2.9 -2.2
7/30/12 -5.1 -2.4 -2.7
7/31/12 -5.1 -1.5 -3.6
8/1/12 -5.3 -1.2 -4.1
8/2/12 -5.7 -1.9 -3.8
8/3/12 -6.0 -2.1 -3.9
8/4/12 -6.1 -2.4 -3.8
8/5/12 -6.2 -2.9 -3.3
8/6/12 -6.1 -3.3 -2.8
8/7/12 -6.1 -3.2 -2.9
8/8/12 -6.0 -3.4 -2.6
8/9/12 -5.7 -3.5 -2.2
8/10/12 -5.3 -3.5 -1.7
8/11/12 -4.9 -3.4 -1.5
8/12/12 -4.3 -3.3 -1.0
8/13/12 -4.2 -3.1 -1.0
8/14/12 -4.3 -3.3 -1.0
8/15/12 -4.4 -3.4 -1.1
8/16/12 -4.2 -3.2 -1.0
8/17/12 -3.8 -3.0 -0.8
8/18/12 -3.2 -2.6 -0.6
8/19/12 -2.6 -2.3 -0.3
8/20/12 -2.1 -2.4 0.3
8/21/12 -1.8 -2.2 0.4
8/22/12 -1.6 -2.2 0.6
8/23/12 -1.6 -2.0 0.5
8/24/12 -1.6 -1.9 0.2
8/25/12 -1.6 -1.9 0.3
8/26/12 -1.6 -1.9 0.3
8/27/12 -1.9 -1.9 0.0
8/28/12 -2.2 -1.7 -0.5
8/29/12 -2.5 -1.4 -1.1
8/30/12 -2.9 -1.1 -1.8
8/31/12 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9
9/1/12 -2.3 -0.5 -1.8
9/2/12 -1.9 0.2 -2.0
9/3/12 -1.6 0.6 -2.2
9/4/12 -1.5 1.8 -3.2
9/5/12 -1.6 2.5 -4.1
9/6/12 -1.7 2.8 -4.5
9/7/12 -1.7 3.0 -4.7
9/8/12 -1.3 3.3 -4.6
9/9/12 -1.2 3.4 -4.6
9/10/12 -1.0 4.1 -5.1
9/11/12 -0.9 4.6 -5.5
9/12/12 -0.3 4.5 -4.9
9/13/12 0.4 4.2 -3.8
9/14/12 1.0 3.9 -2.9
9/15/12 0.9 3.9 -2.9
9/16/12 0.5 3.8 -3.3
9/17/12 -0.1 3.7 -3.7
9/18/12 -0.6 3.8 -4.4
9/19/12 -1.0 3.7 -4.7
9/20/12 -1.1 3.4 -4.5
9/21/12 -0.9 3.3 -4.1
9/22/12 -0.7 3.1 -3.9
9/23/12 -0.8 2.7 -3.5
9/24/12 -0.9 2.4 -3.4
9/25/12 -0.9 2.1 -3.1
9/26/12 -0.9 2.4 -3.4
9/27/12 -1.0 2.7 -3.7
9/28/12 -1.1 2.9 -4.0
9/29/12 -1.1 2.9 -4.0
9/30/12 -0.8 2.5 -3.3
10/1/12 -0.7 2.5 -3.2
10/2/12 -0.6 2.3 -2.9
10/3/12 -0.2 2.2 -2.4
10/4/12 0.1 2.3 -2.2
10/5/12 0.3 2.3 -1.9
10/6/12 0.2 2.3 -2.1
10/7/12 0.1 2.0 -1.9
10/8/12 -0.1 2.0 -2.2
10/9/12 0.0 2.4 -2.4
10/10/12 -0.1 2.1 -2.3
10/11/12 -0.3 1.3 -1.5
10/12/12 -0.7 1.0 -1.7
10/13/12 -1.0 0.8 -1.8
10/14/12 -1.0 0.9 -1.9
10/15/12 -1.1 0.8 -1.9
10/16/12 -1.0 1.1 -2.1
10/17/12 -1.0 1.2 -2.2
10/18/12 -1.4 1.1 -2.5
10/19/12 -1.8 0.7 -2.5
10/20/12 -2.2 0.7 -2.9
10/21/12 -2.1 0.7 -2.8
10/22/12 -2.1 0.9 -3.1
10/23/12 -1.9 1.1 -3.0
10/24/12 -1.9 1.1 -2.9
10/25/12 -1.6 1.0 -2.6
10/26/12 -1.2 1.2 -2.4
10/27/12 -0.7 1.1 -1.9
10/28/12 -0.2 1.5 -1.7
10/29/12 -0.2 1.4 -1.5
10/30/12 0.0 1.6 -1.6
10/31/12 0.3 1.5 -1.2
11/1/12 0.5 1.5 -1.0
11/2/12 0.9 1.7 -0.8
11/3/12 1.6 2.1 -0.5
11/4/12 2.4 2.5 -0.1
11/5/12 3.1 2.9 0.2
11/6/12 3.7 3.1 0.6
11/7/12 4.2 3.5 0.7
11/8/12 4.6 3.7 0.8
11/9/12 4.9 4.6 0.3
11/10/12 5.1 5.1 0.0
11/11/12 5.4 6.5 -1.1
11/12/12 6.4 6.9 -0.4
11/13/12 7.3 8.2 -0.8
11/14/12 7.6 8.3 -0.7
11/15/12 7.8 8.6 -0.8
11/16/12 8.2 8.8 -0.6
11/17/12 8.5 8.8 -0.3
11/18/12 8.6 9.2 -0.5
11/19/12 8.8 8.9 -0.1
11/20/12 8.6 9.3 -0.6
11/21/12 8.8 8.8 0.0
11/22/12 8.8 8.6 0.2
11/23/12 9.2 8.5 0.7
11/24/12 9.6 8.7 0.9
11/25/12 10.3 8.5 1.8
11/26/12 10.8 8.8 2.1
11/27/12 10.8 9.3 1.5
11/28/12 10.8 9.2 1.7
11/29/12 10.5 8.6 1.9
11/30/12 10.7 8.6 2.1
12/1/12 10.9 8.5 2.4
12/2/12 11.3 8.4 2.8
12/3/12 11.5 8.3 3.3
12/4/12 11.5 8.4 3.2
12/5/12 11.3 8.7 2.7
12/6/12 11.4 8.9 2.5
12/7/12 11.7 8.8 2.9
12/8/12 12.0 8.8 3.2
12/9/12 11.9 9.1 2.9
12/10/12 11.8 9.1 2.7
12/11/12 11.7 9.1 2.7
12/12/12 11.9 9.6 2.3
12/13/12 12.1 9.6 2.6
12/14/12 12.7 10.9 1.8
12/15/12 12.7 11.3 1.4
12/16/12 12.6 11.9 0.7
12/17/12 12.3 12.2 0.1
12/18/12 12.3 12.6 -0.3
12/19/12 12.3 13.2 -0.9
12/20/12 12.8 13.0 -0.2
12/21/12 12.9 13.3 -0.4
12/22/12 13.0 13.5 -0.5
12/23/12 13.1 13.8 -0.7
12/24/12 13.3 13.9 -0.7
12/25/12 13.4 14.8 -1.4
12/26/12 13.7 15.3 -1.6
12/27/12 14.0 14.1 -0.1
12/28/12 14.0 14.5 -0.5
12/29/12 13.7 13.4 0.3
12/30/12 13.2 12.9 0.3
12/31/12 13.0 12.4 0.6
1/1/13 12.6 12.8 -0.2
1/2/13 12.2 13.1 -0.9
1/3/13 11.7 12.8 -1.1
1/4/13 11.5 12.7 -1.1
1/5/13 11.5 12.3 -0.8
1/6/13 11.1 12.4 -1.3
1/7/13 10.5 11.4 -0.8
1/8/13 10.4 11.2 -0.8
1/9/13 10.3 11.0 -0.7
1/10/13 9.9 10.3 -0.4
1/11/13 9.5 10.1 -0.7
1/12/13 9.3 10.0 -0.8
1/13/13 9.1 9.9 -0.7
1/14/13 9.3 9.2 0.1
1/15/13 9.4 9.1 0.3
1/16/13 9.5 8.8 0.7
1/17/13 9.7 8.5 1.2
1/18/13 9.9 8.4 1.6
1/19/13 9.9 8.4 1.6
1/20/13 9.7 8.4 1.3
1/21/13 9.5 7.7 1.7
1/22/13 9.3 7.7 1.6
1/23/13 9.3 7.4 1.9
1/24/13 9.4 7.6 1.9
1/25/13 9.4 8.3 1.1
1/26/13 9.4 8.6 0.8
1/27/13 9.5 8.3 1.2
1/28/13 9.4 7.6 1.9
1/29/13 9.1 8.1 1.1
1/30/13 8.5 7.8 0.7
1/31/13 8.3 7.8 0.4
2/1/13 7.9 7.8 0.1
2/2/13 7.7 7.8 -0.2
2/3/13 7.6 7.7 -0.1
2/4/13 7.8 7.8 0.0
2/5/13 8.1 8.1 0.0
2/6/13 8.3 8.2 0.1
2/7/13 8.3 7.8 0.4
2/8/13 7.9 7.6 0.4
2/9/13 7.7 7.2 0.4
2/10/13 7.6 7.3 0.3
2/11/13 7.3 7.8 -0.5
2/12/13 7.1 8.5 -1.4
2/13/13 6.9 8.1 -1.1
2/14/13 7.1 8.1 -1.0
2/15/13 7.1 8.2 -1.1
2/16/13 7.2 8.0 -0.8
2/17/13 7.5 7.8 -0.4
2/18/13 7.2 7.6 -0.4
2/19/13 6.6 7.8 -1.2
2/20/13 6.0 7.3 -1.3
2/21/13 5.8 7.2 -1.4
2/22/13 5.7 7.0 -1.4
2/23/13 5.5 6.8 -1.3
2/24/13 5.4 6.5 -1.1
2/25/13 5.1 5.8 -0.7
2/26/13 4.8 4.5 0.3
2/27/13 4.6 4.2 0.4
2/28/13 4.5 3.8 0.7
3/1/13 4.4 3.9 0.5
3/2/13 4.3 3.7 0.5
3/3/13 3.9 3.7 0.2
3/4/13 3.7 3.5 0.2
3/5/13 3.5 2.7 0.8
3/6/13 3.4 2.2 1.2
3/7/13 3.3 2.1 1.2
3/8/13 3.1 1.8 1.3
3/9/13 3.0 1.7 1.3
3/10/13 3.0 1.7 1.3
3/11/13 2.9 2.0 0.9
3/12/13 3.0 2.0 1.0
3/13/13 3.1 2.3 0.8
3/14/13 3.3 2.3 0.9
3/15/13 3.4 2.4 1.0
3/16/13 3.6 2.3 1.3
3/17/13 3.7 2.1 1.7
3/18/13 3.7 1.9 1.8
3/19/13 3.6 1.9 1.7
3/20/13 3.9 2.4 1.5
3/21/13 4.3 2.4 1.9
3/22/13 4.9 2.3 2.6
3/23/13 5.1 2.3 2.8
3/24/13 5.2 2.4 2.9
3/25/13 4.9 2.6 2.4
3/26/13 4.9 2.3 2.5
3/27/13 4.6 2.2 2.4
3/28/13 4.4 2.1 2.3
3/29/13 4.2 2.2 2.0
3/30/13 4.1 2.4 1.7
3/31/13 3.7 2.5 1.2
4/1/13 3.4 2.6 0.8
4/2/13 3.1 2.3 0.8
4/3/13 2.9 2.2 0.6
4/4/13 2.5 2.1 0.4
4/5/13 2.2 2.1 0.2
4/6/13 1.9 2.2 -0.3
4/7/13 1.9 2.4 -0.4
4/8/13 1.9 2.5 -0.7
4/9/13 2.1 2.3 -0.2
4/10/13 2.1 2.5 -0.4
4/11/13 2.1 3.0 -0.9
4/12/13 2.1 3.3 -1.1
4/13/13 2.3 3.7 -1.3
4/14/13 2.3 3.7 -1.4
4/15/13 2.1 3.7 -1.6
4/16/13 1.9 3.4 -1.5
4/17/13 1.9 4.0 -2.1
4/18/13 2.0 4.1 -2.1
4/19/13 1.9 4.4 -2.5
4/20/13 1.9 4.7 -2.8
4/21/13 1.8 4.9 -3.1
4/22/13 1.7 4.8 -3.1
4/23/13 1.3 5.0 -3.7
4/24/13 0.7 5.3 -4.6
4/25/13 0.2 5.5 -5.3
4/26/13 0.0 5.4 -5.4
4/27/13 -0.1 5.3 -5.4
4/28/13 -0.3 5.2 -5.5
4/29/13 -0.7 4.9 -5.5
4/30/13 -0.7 4.7 -5.5
5/1/13 -0.7 5.3 -6.0
5/2/13 -0.4 5.2 -5.6
5/3/13 -0.3 5.2 -5.4
5/4/13 -0.1 4.9 -4.9
5/5/13 -0.2 4.6 -4.9
5/6/13 -0.3 4.4 -4.7
5/7/13 -0.6 4.0 -4.6
5/8/13 -0.7 3.8 -4.5
5/9/13 -0.6 3.9 -4.4
5/10/13 -0.1 3.9 -4.0
5/11/13 0.0 4.0 -4.0
5/12/13 -0.3 4.1 -4.4
5/13/13 -0.8 3.2 -4.0
5/14/13 -1.1 3.5 -4.5
5/15/13 -1.1 3.7 -4.8
5/16/13 -1.0 3.8 -4.8
5/17/13 -1.1 3.6 -4.7
5/18/13 -1.3 3.4 -4.7
5/19/13 -1.5 3.4 -4.9
5/20/13 -1.6 3.1 -4.7
5/21/13 -1.9 2.6 -4.5
5/22/13 -1.7 3.1 -4.8
5/23/13 -1.5 3.3 -4.8
5/24/13 -1.3 3.3 -4.5
5/25/13 -1.3 3.0 -4.3
5/26/13 -1.7 2.5 -4.1
5/27/13 -1.6 2.0 -3.6
5/28/13 -1.1 2.1 -3.2
5/29/13 -0.5 2.0 -2.5
5/30/13 -0.1 1.7 -1.8
5/31/13 -0.1 1.7 -1.8
6/1/13 -0.3 1.7 -2.0
6/2/13 -0.5 1.9 -2.4
6/3/13 -0.8 1.5 -2.3
6/4/13 -0.9 1.0 -1.9
6/5/13 -0.9 1.1 -2.1
6/6/13 -1.3 0.4 -1.7
6/7/13 -1.5 0.3 -1.8
6/8/13 -1.9 0.2 -2.1
6/9/13 -2.0 0.5 -2.5
6/10/13 -2.0 0.1 -2.1
6/11/13 -2.2 -0.1 -2.1
6/12/13 -2.6 0.1 -2.7
6/13/13 -3.5 -0.1 -3.4
6/14/13 -4.3 -0.1 -4.2
6/15/13 -4.5 -0.3 -4.2
6/16/13 -4.3 -0.6 -3.7
6/17/13 -4.1 -1.3 -2.7
6/18/13 -4.0 -1.5 -2.5
6/19/13 -3.9 -0.9 -3.0
6/20/13 -4.3 -0.6 -3.7
6/21/13 -4.5 0.0 -4.5
6/22/13 -4.9 -0.2 -4.6
6/23/13 -4.9 -0.5 -4.4
6/24/13 -4.9 -1.3 -3.7
6/25/13 -5.0 -1.5 -3.5
6/26/13 -5.1 -1.4 -3.7
6/27/13 -5.2 -1.6 -3.6
6/28/13 -4.8 -1.5 -3.4
6/29/13 -4.7 -1.6 -3.1
6/30/13 -5.0 -1.7 -3.3
7/1/13 -5.4 -2.0 -3.4
7/2/13 -5.8 -1.5 -4.4
7/3/13 -6.1 -1.3 -4.8
7/4/13 -6.1 -1.7 -4.3
7/5/13 -5.5 -2.1 -3.5
7/6/13 -4.9 -2.2 -2.7
7/7/13 -4.4 -2.2 -2.2
7/8/13 -4.0 -2.6 -1.4
7/9/13 -3.7 -2.6 -1.1
7/10/13 -3.5 -2.4 -1.0
7/11/13 -3.4 -2.8 -0.7
7/12/13 -3.5 -2.5 -0.9
7/13/13 -3.2 -2.3 -0.9
7/14/13 -3.1 -1.8 -1.3
7/15/13 -2.8 -1.8 -1.0
7/16/13 -2.7 -1.8 -0.9
7/17/13 -2.3 -1.8 -0.5
7/18/13 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3
7/19/13 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3
7/20/13 -2.3 -1.7 -0.5
7/21/13 -2.9 -1.8 -1.1
7/22/13 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1
7/23/13 -3.7 -2.3 -1.4
7/24/13 -3.9 -2.1 -1.8
7/25/13 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6
7/26/13 -3.6 -2.1 -1.5
7/27/13 -3.7 -2.3 -1.4
7/28/13 -4.0 -2.8 -1.2
7/29/13 -4.3 -3.9 -0.4
7/30/13 -4.3 -3.8 -0.5
7/31/13 -4.1 -3.7 -0.5
8/1/13 -4.3 -3.7 -0.6
8/2/13 -4.5 -4.1 -0.4
8/3/13 -4.8 -4.5 -0.3
8/4/13 -4.7 -4.7 -0.1
8/5/13 -4.6 -4.7 0.1
8/6/13 -4.5 -4.7 0.2
8/7/13 -4.5 -4.2 -0.3
8/8/13 -4.5 -4.4 -0.2
8/9/13 -4.7 -4.1 -0.6
8/10/13 -4.9 -3.8 -1.0
8/11/13 -4.8 -3.4 -1.4
8/12/13 -4.7 -3.5 -1.3
8/13/13 -4.5 -3.1 -1.4
8/14/13 -4.6 -3.1 -1.6
8/15/13 -4.9 -2.8 -2.1
8/16/13 -5.2 -2.4 -2.8
8/17/13 -5.5 -1.9 -3.6
8/18/13 -5.4 -1.6 -3.8
8/19/13 -5.1 -2.0 -3.1
8/20/13 -4.7 -2.3 -2.3
8/21/13 -4.3 -2.0 -2.3
8/22/13 -4.0 -2.1 -1.9
8/23/13 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6
8/24/13 -3.3 -2.3 -1.0
8/25/13 -3.1 -2.6 -0.5
8/26/13 -2.9 -3.5 0.6
8/27/13 -2.7 -3.9 1.2
8/28/13 -2.5 -3.8 1.3
8/29/13 -2.2 -4.2 2.0
8/30/13 -2.0 -4.6 2.6
8/31/13 -1.7 -5.6 3.9
Sep 2013 - Dec 2014
Date Rasmussen Non-Rassmussen Diff
9/1/13 -1.7 -5.9 4.2
9/2/13 -1.9 -6.4 4.5
9/3/13 -2.5 -6.6 4.1
9/4/13 -3.0 -6.4 3.4
9/5/13 -3.4 -6.4 3.0
9/6/13 -3.5 -6.5 3.0
9/7/13 -3.9 -6.5 2.6
9/8/13 -4.4 -6.2 1.8
9/9/13 -4.6 -6.2 1.6
9/10/13 -4.5 -5.9 1.4
9/11/13 -4.4 -5.5 1.1
9/12/13 -4.3 -5.6 1.2
9/13/13 -4.7 -5.4 0.8
9/14/13 -4.8 -5.2 0.4
9/15/13 -4.9 -4.8 -0.2
9/16/13 -4.4 -4.8 0.4
9/17/13 -3.9 -4.5 0.6
9/18/13 -3.5 -3.8 0.4
9/19/13 -3.1 -4.0 0.9
9/20/13 -2.9 -4.2 1.3
9/21/13 -2.5 -4.4 2.0
9/22/13 -1.9 -4.7 2.8
9/23/13 -1.2 -5.0 3.8
9/24/13 -0.9 -5.0 4.1
9/25/13 -1.1 -5.1 4.0
9/26/13 -1.3 -5.4 4.1
9/27/13 -1.7 -5.7 4.0
9/28/13 -1.6 -5.8 4.2
9/29/13 -1.5 -6.1 4.6
9/30/13 -0.9 -6.6 5.7
10/1/13 -0.6 -6.7 6.1
10/2/13 -0.3 -6.4 6.1
10/3/13 0.2 -6.7 6.9
10/4/13 0.5 -6.9 7.4
10/5/13 0.7 -7.1 7.8
10/6/13 0.4 -7.3 7.7
10/7/13 0.1 -7.8 7.9
10/8/13 -0.7 -8.1 7.5
10/9/13 -0.9 -8.3 7.5
10/10/13 -0.7 -8.6 7.8
10/11/13 -0.4 -8.5 8.1
10/12/13 0.1 -8.3 8.4
10/13/13 0.4 -8.0 8.4
10/14/13 0.6 -8.1 8.7
10/15/13 0.7 -8.1 8.8
10/16/13 0.8 -8.0 8.8
10/17/13 0.9 -8.5 9.3
10/18/13 0.8 -8.5 9.3
10/19/13 0.6 -8.3 9.0
10/20/13 0.2 -8.0 8.3
10/21/13 0.1 -8.2 8.2
10/22/13 -0.1 -8.0 7.9
10/23/13 0.1 -8.1 8.3
10/24/13 0.1 -7.8 7.9
10/25/13 0.1 -7.9 8.0
10/26/13 -0.1 -8.1 7.9
10/27/13 -0.2 -8.4 8.1
10/28/13 -0.4 -9.3 8.9
10/29/13 -1.1 -9.9 8.8
10/30/13 -2.1 -10.3 8.2
10/31/13 -3.2 -10.3 7.1
11/1/13 -4.3 -10.2 6.0
11/2/13 -5.0 -10.4 5.4
11/3/13 -5.6 -10.8 5.1
11/4/13 -6.0 -11.4 5.4
11/5/13 -6.5 -11.5 5.0
11/6/13 -6.9 -11.6 4.7
11/7/13 -7.4 -11.6 4.2
11/8/13 -7.8 -12.3 4.5
11/9/13 -8.1 -12.4 4.2
11/10/13 -8.6 -12.4 3.7
11/11/13 -8.9 -12.5 3.6
11/12/13 -9.5 -12.3 2.8
11/13/13 -9.8 -12.4 2.6
11/14/13 -9.8 -12.5 2.7
11/15/13 -9.5 -12.8 3.2
11/16/13 -9.3 -13.0 3.7
11/17/13 -9.3 -13.0 3.6
11/18/13 -9.3 -13.1 3.9
11/19/13 -9.3 -13.0 3.7
11/20/13 -9.1 -12.9 3.7
11/21/13 -9.0 -13.0 4.0
11/22/13 -9.0 -13.0 4.0
11/23/13 -9.2 -12.8 3.6
11/24/13 -9.4 -12.8 3.3
11/25/13 -9.4 -13.1 3.7
11/26/13 -9.3 -12.8 3.5
11/27/13 -9.1 -12.6 3.5
11/28/13 -9.2 -12.1 2.9
11/29/13 -9.5 -10.9 1.4
11/30/13 -9.9 -10.8 0.9
12/1/13 -10.0 -9.8 -0.2
12/2/13 -9.7 -10.7 1.0
12/3/13 -9.4 -10.2 0.8
12/4/13 -8.9 -9.9 1.0
12/5/13 -8.5 -9.8 1.3
12/6/13 -8.2 -9.7 1.6
12/7/13 -8.0 -9.8 1.8
12/8/13 -7.8 -10.2 2.4
12/9/13 -7.3 -10.5 3.3
12/10/13 -7.1 -10.1 3.0
12/11/13 -6.7 -10.1 3.4
12/12/13 -6.5 -10.4 3.9
12/13/13 -6.0 -10.5 4.5
12/14/13 -5.9 -11.1 5.2
12/15/13 -5.5 -11.2 5.6
12/16/13 -5.4 -12.1 6.7
12/17/13 -5.5 -11.5 6.0
12/18/13 -5.7 -11.7 6.0
12/19/13 -5.8 -12.0 6.2
12/20/13 -5.7 -12.1 6.4
12/21/13 -5.5 -11.9 6.4
12/22/13 -5.3 -11.7 6.3
12/23/13 -5.1 -11.6 6.5
12/24/13 -5.1 -11.2 6.1
12/25/13 -5.1 -11.4 6.3
12/26/13 -5.0 -11.3 6.3
12/27/13 -4.6 -11.0 6.4
12/28/13 -4.4 -11.1 6.7
12/29/13 -3.6 -11.2 7.6
12/30/13 -2.9 -11.1 8.2
12/31/13 -2.8 -10.9 8.1
1/1/14 -2.7 -10.9 8.2
1/2/14 -2.8 -10.7 7.9
1/3/14 -2.8 -10.4 7.6
1/4/14 -2.9 -10.3 7.3
1/5/14 -3.2 -10.5 7.3
1/6/14 -3.1 -11.1 8.0
1/7/14 -2.8 -11.0 8.2
1/8/14 -2.4 -11.2 8.8
1/9/14 -2.1 -11.3 9.2
1/10/14 -1.8 -11.3 9.5
1/11/14 -1.9 -11.3 9.4
1/12/14 -1.7 -11.1 9.4
1/13/14 -1.5 -10.5 9.0
1/14/14 -1.4 -9.9 8.5
1/15/14 -1.3 -9.8 8.5
1/16/14 -1.5 -9.5 8.0
1/17/14 -1.4 -9.4 8.0
1/18/14 -1.1 -9.4 8.3
1/19/14 -0.7 -9.6 8.9
1/20/14 -0.6 -9.5 8.9
1/21/14 -0.7 -9.2 8.5
1/22/14 -1.3 -8.9 7.6
1/23/14 -1.7 -8.8 7.1
1/24/14 -2.1 -8.7 6.6
1/25/14 -2.1 -8.6 6.5
1/26/14 -2.1 -8.4 6.3
1/27/14 -2.3 -8.4 6.0
1/28/14 -3.0 -8.6 5.6
1/29/14 -3.7 -9.0 5.3
1/30/14 -4.2 -8.8 4.6
1/31/14 -4.3 -9.4 5.1
2/1/14 -4.3 -9.5 5.3
2/2/14 -4.4 -9.6 5.2
2/3/14 -5.1 -9.4 4.3
2/4/14 -5.7 -9.8 4.2
2/5/14 -6.1 -10.0 3.9
2/6/14 -5.7 -10.3 4.6
2/7/14 -5.5 -10.3 4.8
2/8/14 -5.1 -10.5 5.4
2/9/14 -5.2 -10.6 5.4
2/10/14 -5.1 -11.0 5.8
2/11/14 -5.0 -10.6 5.6
2/12/14 -4.3 -10.3 6.0
2/13/14 -3.7 -10.1 6.4
2/14/14 -2.8 -9.9 7.1
2/15/14 -2.3 -9.6 7.3
2/16/14 -1.7 -9.5 7.8
2/17/14 -1.5 -9.4 7.9
2/18/14 -0.8 -9.5 8.7
2/19/14 -0.2 -9.4 9.2
2/20/14 0.4 -9.4 9.8
2/21/14 0.3 -9.6 9.9
2/22/14 -0.1 -9.8 9.8
2/23/14 -0.6 -9.5 8.9
2/24/14 -1.1 -9.6 8.5
2/25/14 -1.3 -9.8 8.5
2/26/14 -1.6 -10.2 8.6
2/27/14 -2.0 -10.7 8.7
2/28/14 -2.3 -10.9 8.6
3/1/14 -3.0 -10.9 7.9
3/2/14 -3.5 -10.8 7.2
3/3/14 -4.5 -10.2 5.7
3/4/14 -5.1 -10.4 5.3
3/5/14 -5.7 -10.4 4.8
3/6/14 -5.8 -10.5 4.7
3/7/14 -5.7 -10.7 4.9
3/8/14 -5.6 -10.6 5.0
3/9/14 -5.3 -10.5 5.3
3/10/14 -5.1 -10.8 5.7
3/11/14 -4.5 -10.4 5.9
3/12/14 -4.1 -9.8 5.8
3/13/14 -3.8 -9.4 5.6
3/14/14 -3.5 -9.5 6.0
3/15/14 -3.2 -9.5 6.3
3/16/14 -2.9 -9.3 6.3
3/17/14 -2.9 -9.4 6.5
3/18/14 -2.8 -10.0 7.2
3/19/14 -2.7 -10.0 7.4
3/20/14 -2.5 -10.1 7.6
3/21/14 -2.6 -9.9 7.3
3/22/14 -2.9 -9.6 6.8
3/23/14 -2.9 -9.2 6.4
3/24/14 -3.1 -8.9 5.9
3/25/14 -3.0 -8.7 5.7
3/26/14 -3.2 -8.6 5.4
3/27/14 -3.1 -8.7 5.6
3/28/14 -2.8 -8.9 6.1
3/29/14 -3.2 -8.7 5.5
3/30/14 -3.7 -8.7 5.0
3/31/14 -4.0 -8.8 4.8
4/1/14 -3.8 -8.5 4.7
4/2/14 -3.3 -8.3 5.0
4/3/14 -2.8 -8.2 5.4
4/4/14 -2.4 -7.9 5.5
4/5/14 -2.4 -7.8 5.4
4/6/14 -2.4 -7.8 5.4
4/7/14 -2.7 -8.1 5.5
4/8/14 -2.7 -8.4 5.7
4/9/14 -3.1 -8.6 5.4
4/10/14 -3.4 -8.7 5.3
4/11/14 -4.1 -8.6 4.6
4/12/14 -4.6 -8.4 3.8
4/13/14 -4.3 -8.3 4.0
4/14/14 -3.9 -8.0 4.1
4/15/14 -3.7 -8.0 4.2
4/16/14 -4.3 -7.8 3.5
4/17/14 -4.9 -7.6 2.7
4/18/14 -5.5 -7.5 2.0
4/19/14 -5.8 -7.4 1.6
4/20/14 -5.8 -7.4 1.6
4/21/14 -5.7 -7.3 1.6
4/22/14 -5.5 -7.1 1.6
4/23/14 -5.5 -6.5 0.9
4/24/14 -5.3 -6.2 0.9
4/25/14 -5.3 -6.3 1.0
4/26/14 -5.1 -6.6 1.5
4/27/14 -4.9 -6.9 1.9
4/28/14 -4.9 -6.8 1.9
4/29/14 -4.6 -6.8 2.2
4/30/14 -4.5 -7.0 2.4
5/1/14 -4.1 -6.8 2.7
5/2/14 -3.7 -6.8 3.0
5/3/14 -3.1 -6.7 3.5
5/4/14 -3.0 -6.7 3.7
5/5/14 -2.6 -6.5 3.9
5/6/14 -2.2 -6.3 4.0
5/7/14 -2.0 -6.1 4.1
5/8/14 -2.0 -6.2 4.2
5/9/14 -2.3 -6.1 3.8
5/10/14 -2.3 -6.1 3.8
5/11/14 -2.0 -6.0 4.0
5/12/14 -1.7 -6.1 4.4
5/13/14 -1.6 -6.3 4.7
5/14/14 -1.6 -6.2 4.7
5/15/14 -1.2 -6.2 5.0
5/16/14 -1.0 -6.5 5.5
5/17/14 -0.9 -6.9 6.0
5/18/14 -1.0 -7.0 6.0
5/19/14 -0.9 -7.1 6.2
5/20/14 -0.9 -7.0 6.1
5/21/14 -1.1 -7.2 6.0
5/22/14 -1.3 -7.2 5.9
5/23/14 -1.1 -7.3 6.2
5/24/14 -0.7 -7.7 6.9
5/25/14 -0.4 -7.8 7.4
5/26/14 -0.2 -7.8 7.6
5/27/14 0.2 -7.8 8.0
5/28/14 0.5 -7.3 7.8
5/29/14 0.6 -7.6 8.2
5/30/14 0.4 -7.5 7.9
5/31/14 0.3 -7.6 7.8
6/1/14 0.4 -7.1 7.5
6/2/14 0.3 -7.5 7.8
6/3/14 -0.1 -7.1 7.0
6/4/14 -0.5 -7.1 6.5
6/5/14 -0.8 -7.2 6.4
6/6/14 -0.9 -7.6 6.6
6/7/14 -1.1 -7.9 6.8
6/8/14 -1.1 -8.3 7.2
6/9/14 -1.3 -8.8 7.5
6/10/14 -1.5 -9.0 7.5
6/11/14 -2.2 -9.0 6.8
6/12/14 -2.8 -9.8 7.0
6/13/14 -3.2 -10.4 7.2
6/14/14 -3.2 -10.8 7.6
6/15/14 -3.3 -11.2 8.0
6/16/14 -3.8 -11.5 7.7
6/17/14 -4.3 -11.7 7.4
6/18/14 -4.5 -12.1 7.7
6/19/14 -4.5 -12.4 7.9
6/20/14 -4.5 -12.4 7.9
6/21/14 -4.5 -12.2 7.7
6/22/14 -4.3 -11.9 7.6
6/23/14 -4.3 -11.5 7.3
6/24/14 -4.3 -11.5 7.2
6/25/14 -4.7 -11.5 6.8
6/26/14 -4.6 -11.2 6.6
6/27/14 -4.8 -11.1 6.4
6/28/14 -5.0 -10.5 5.5
6/29/14 -5.5 -10.3 4.8
6/30/14 -5.8 -9.9 4.1
7/1/14 -5.8 -9.9 4.1
7/2/14 -5.7 -9.9 4.2
7/3/14 -5.7 -10.1 4.4
7/4/14 -5.7 -10.2 4.5
7/5/14 -5.9 -10.3 4.4
7/6/14 -6.2 -10.4 4.2
7/7/14 -6.5 -9.9 3.4
7/8/14 -6.7 -9.9 3.2
7/9/14 -6.5 -9.6 3.1
7/10/14 -6.3 -9.6 3.3
7/11/14 -6.2 -9.6 3.4
7/12/14 -6.3 -9.6 3.3
7/13/14 -6.2 -10.0 3.8
7/14/14 -6.1 -9.7 3.6
7/15/14 -5.9 -9.5 3.7
7/16/14 -5.8 -9.4 3.6
7/17/14 -5.7 -9.6 3.9
7/18/14 -5.9 -9.6 3.7
7/19/14 -5.7 -9.6 3.9
7/20/14 -5.7 -9.6 3.9
7/21/14 -5.6 -10.7 5.1
7/22/14 -5.8 -11.4 5.6
7/23/14 -6.1 -11.7 5.6
7/24/14 -6.5 -11.7 5.2
7/25/14 -6.7 -11.7 5.0
7/26/14 -6.8 -11.9 5.1
7/27/14 -6.8 -12.1 5.3
7/28/14 -6.8 -11.8 5.0
7/29/14 -6.8 -12.4 5.6
7/30/14 -6.7 -12.7 5.9
7/31/14 -6.8 -12.4 5.6
8/1/14 -7.1 -12.1 5.0
8/2/14 -7.1 -12.1 4.9
8/3/14 -7.3 -11.8 4.5
8/4/14 -7.1 -11.5 4.4
8/5/14 -7.2 -10.4 3.2
8/6/14 -7.2 -10.3 3.1
8/7/14 -7.2 -10.1 2.9
8/8/14 -7.0 -10.1 3.1
8/9/14 -6.9 -10.2 3.3
8/10/14 -6.6 -10.1 3.5
8/11/14 -6.5 -9.7 3.2
8/12/14 -6.6 -9.7 3.1
8/13/14 -6.7 -9.4 2.6
8/14/14 -7.1 -9.1 2.0
8/15/14 -7.1 -9.3 2.1
8/16/14 -7.3 -9.5 2.2
8/17/14 -7.3 -9.4 2.1
8/18/14 -7.3 -9.6 2.3
8/19/14 -7.4 -9.7 2.3
8/20/14 -7.3 -9.9 2.6
8/21/14 -7.2 -9.8 2.6
8/22/14 -7.0 -9.9 2.9
8/23/14 -7.0 -9.7 2.7
8/24/14 -7.0 -9.6 2.6
8/25/14 -7.2 -9.6 2.4
8/26/14 -7.3 -10.1 2.8
8/27/14 -7.1 -10.5 3.4
8/28/14 -6.9 -10.8 3.9
8/29/14 -6.6 -11.3 4.7
8/30/14 -6.5 -11.3 4.8
8/31/14 -6.1 -11.3 5.2
9/1/14 -5.9 -11.6 5.8
9/2/14 -5.6 -11.7 6.1
9/3/14 -5.3 -12.0 6.6
9/4/14 -5.1 -11.9 6.8
9/5/14 -4.9 -12.2 7.3
9/6/14 -4.7 -12.3 7.7
9/7/14 -4.5 -12.5 8.1
9/8/14 -4.5 -12.7 8.2
9/9/14 -4.7 -12.7 8.1
9/10/14 -4.7 -12.5 7.8
9/11/14 -4.9 -12.3 7.4
9/12/14 -5.0 -12.4 7.4
9/13/14 -5.2 -12.0 6.8
9/14/14 -5.1 -11.7 6.6
9/15/14 -4.9 -11.5 6.5
9/16/14 -4.9 -11.2 6.3
9/17/14 -5.0 -11.1 6.1
9/18/14 -5.1 -10.9 5.8
9/19/14 -5.2 -10.8 5.6
9/20/14 -5.3 -10.6 5.4
9/21/14 -5.6 -10.3 4.7
9/22/14 -5.5 -10.1 4.6
9/23/14 -5.5 -9.7 4.3
9/24/14 -5.1 -9.8 4.8
9/25/14 -4.8 -9.8 5.0
9/26/14 -4.5 -9.9 5.4
9/27/14 -4.5 -9.7 5.3
9/28/14 -4.2 -9.6 5.4
9/29/14 -4.3 -9.4 5.1
9/30/14 -4.3 -9.5 5.2
10/1/14 -4.3 -9.9 5.5
10/2/14 -4.4 -10.1 5.7
10/3/14 -4.5 -10.5 6.0
10/4/14 -4.4 -10.5 6.1
10/5/14 -4.3 -10.5 6.2
10/6/14 -3.9 -11.0 7.1
10/7/14 -3.7 -11.4 7.7
10/8/14 -3.5 -11.5 7.9
10/9/14 -3.6 -11.3 7.7
10/10/14 -3.6 -11.3 7.7
10/11/14 -3.7 -11.4 7.7
10/12/14 -3.8 -11.6 7.8
10/13/14 -4.0 -11.9 7.9
10/14/14 -3.9 -12.5 8.6
10/15/14 -3.7 -12.8 9.0
10/16/14 -3.7 -12.7 9.0
10/17/14 -3.5 -12.3 8.8
10/18/14 -3.6 -12.0 8.3
10/19/14 -3.9 -11.3 7.5
10/20/14 -4.3 -11.6 7.3
10/21/14 -4.8 -11.3 6.5
10/22/14 -5.3 -11.0 5.8
10/23/14 -5.5 -11.2 5.7
10/24/14 -5.6 -11.3 5.6
10/25/14 -6.0 -11.4 5.4
10/26/14 -6.3 -11.3 5.0
10/27/14 -6.4 -11.5 5.1
10/28/14 -6.4 -11.2 4.8
10/29/14 -6.5 -11.3 4.8
10/30/14 -6.7 -11.3 4.6
10/31/14 -6.6 -11.4 4.9
11/1/14 -6.3 -11.8 5.5
11/2/14 -5.9 -11.9 6.0
11/3/14 -5.7 -13.1 7.4
11/4/14 -5.5 -13.1 7.6
11/5/14 -5.2 -13.1 7.9
11/6/14 -4.9 -13.2 8.3
11/7/14 -4.7 -13.1 8.3
11/8/14 -4.7 -12.7 8.0
11/9/14 -4.3 -12.3 8.0
11/10/14 -4.0 -11.7 7.7
11/11/14 -3.6 -11.2 7.6
11/12/14 -3.7 -11.4 7.7
11/13/14 -3.6 -11.2 7.6
11/14/14 -3.5 -11.3 7.7
11/15/14 -3.6 -11.1 7.5
11/16/14 -4.0 -10.9 6.9
11/17/14 -4.3 -11.0 6.7
11/18/14 -4.5 -10.4 5.8
11/19/14 -4.5 -10.5 6.0
11/20/14 -4.6 -10.4 5.8
11/21/14 -4.8 -10.4 5.6
11/22/14 -5.0 -10.2 5.2
11/23/14 -4.6 -10.1 5.5
11/24/14 -4.7 -9.9 5.1
11/25/14 -4.6 -10.2 5.6
11/26/14 -4.8 -10.2 5.4
11/27/14 -4.7 -10.2 5.4
11/28/14 -4.8 -10.3 5.4
11/29/14 -4.8 -9.9 5.1
11/30/14 -4.4 -9.5 5.2
12/1/14 -3.7 -9.8 6.1
12/2/14 -3.3 -9.3 6.0
12/3/14 -3.2 -9.5 6.3
12/4/14 -3.3 -9.3 6.0
12/5/14 -3.3 -9.2 5.9
12/6/14 -3.2 -9.1 6.0
12/7/14 -3.1 -9.1 6.0
12/8/14 -3.3 -9.2 5.9
12/9/14 -3.4 -9.5 6.1
12/10/14 -3.5 -9.4 5.9
12/11/14 -3.5 -9.3 5.8
12/12/14 -3.4 -9.1 5.7
12/13/14 -3.2 -8.4 5.2
12/14/14 -3.2 -7.9 4.7
12/15/14 -3.5 -8.0 4.5
12/16/14 -3.6 -7.4 3.7
12/17/14 -3.8 -7.1 3.3
12/18/14 -3.7 -6.9 3.2
12/19/14 -3.6 -6.9 3.3
12/20/14 -3.6 -6.7 3.1
12/21/14 -3.7 -6.5 2.8
12/22/14 -3.6 -5.8 2.2
12/23/14 -3.3 -5.3 2.0
12/24/14 -3.2 -5.1 1.9
12/25/14 -3.1 -4.7 1.6
12/26/14 -2.4 -4.1 1.6
12/27/14 -1.7 -3.9 2.2
12/28/14 -1.0 -4.2 3.2
12/29/14 -0.1 -4.9 4.7
12/30/14 0.7 -4.0 4.7
12/31/14 0.8 -3.5 4.3
I never knew there was a character limit to posts before that last one, but that’s not really the point.
The first set might actually contain two tweaks, but let’s give theme the benefit of the doubt here. We have a mostly stable difference in net favorability between Ras and non-Ras of about -1.5 points (where negative is anti-BHO). By stable I mean we’re at -1.5 ± 3.0 the vast majority of the time.
Then we have the second set. It averages +5.0 pro-BHO and is also stable in that it is +5.0 ± 4.0 most of the time.
It’s this stable, jump, stable pattern that indicates something artificial happened here.
Do the different pollsters all phrase their questions exactly the same way?
Of course they do. There are federal regulations that define exactly how poll question must be phrased.
I’m assuming this is a sarcastic answer. I don’t believe that there’s any such regulation, and while pollsters may ask similar questions, they may or may not be worded in precisely the same way.
Not just sarcastic but inanely so — devoid of humor or purpose.
It is probably NOT the cause of differences, but the question phrasing might have an effect. Certainly
Do you approve of President Trump?
and
Do you approve of the job President Trump is doing?
might get different answers from some people.
Column 8, ‘question_text’, is included in the data set I’ve been discussing (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/questions/00c%20-Pres-45-Trump%20-%20Job%20Approval%20-%20National/poll-responses-clean.tsv). However, that field is blank in many, but not all, rows.
Also, of course the question is not identically worded among the many, many pollsters who polling this particular question. Why would it be? They aren’t trying to scientifically validate each other. They’re in competition with each other.