The articles of impeachment are presented to the senate and are in all likelihood shot down.
Trump is then re-elected in 2020 buoyed by this validation and other yada-yada-yada.
What are the chances that the house will make another trip to the impeachment well to try their luck again?
Hell. A successful impeachment doesn’t prevent him from running and winning again. How long would it be before another president was impeached twice in as many terms.
I realize there will be much speculation, so feel free to expand on the hypothetical as much as you like, just please keep it reasonable. i.e. The senate flips left or house flips right.
I think it will depend on the Congressional results. If Dems gain 20 seats in the House and take back the Senate, then sure. Impeachment will be seen as having politically benefited them. If they lose seats in both, then it will be seen as a loser and they won’t.
No. Then the Democrats would be competing with an incumbent President Pence who would have a fired up Republican base into 2024. 3rd time presidents of the same party aren’t common, although the screwiness of 2000 and 2016 kinda throws the recent stats off.
If the Dems take back the Senate and gain 20 more seats in the House in 2020, that most likely would mean that Trump lost badly as well. It’s hard to envision them making those kind of gains without public sentiment being overwhelmingly against a second term.
Only if there was rock solid proof that Trump did something truly egregious and non-partisan. Part of the problem with the Ukraine impeachment is that almost half the country thinks that blackmailing a foreign leader into framing Biden, is a good thing. But I think if there was indisputable evidence of a monetary bribe or blackmail from Erdoğan on the eve of the US with drawal for Kurdistan, you might be able to drum up enough support to get it done.
If Trump keeps breaking laws, he should be impeached every time he does, for however long he’s in office.
If were to, say, embezzle Federal funds in March 2020, presumably after this impeachment proceeding is disposed with, he should be investigated for impeachment again.
The worst thing for our system of government is to just let officials keep breaking laws because they got away with it once.
A president can only be removed if he is unpopular. All of the con-law professor-splainin’ is mumbo jumbo. A president is only forced out of office if the economy is in the tank. And that’s why this impeachment will result in a quick acquittal, and it’s also why Trump and his pit bull Bill Barr are going to start attacking democracy.
What you have to understand and be ready for, is that calling your congressman won’t mean shit. Voting won’t mean shit. Writing op-eds won’t mean shit. Following the news religiously won’t mean shit. Getting out in the streets and getting ready to do whatever it takes to defend your country from against an illegal, illegitimate presidency…that’s what is required to defend your democracy now. You need to be pissed off, and you need to show it. There is a time to be visible, and this is that time.
After the senate votes that Trump is the best president ever, I expect that Barr and the new head of the FBI will start rounding up Trump’s opponents. The Russians will be quite openly invited openly to work with the Republicans.
The President has far more real power than the House. Federal law enforcement doesn’t work for the House. The military doesn’t work for the House. The House has no power to make the president do anything - not when the country is polarized the way it is. The two most important levers of power are in Republican hands: the Senate and the Presidency - and the fact that they lost the House will only intensify their motivation to use extra-legal and extra-constitutional means to crush their enemies.