There are serious glitches in his claim. He botches the takeaway of the presentation, which has plenty of issues on its own…
The first thing that jumped out was Tancredo mangled the dates. He said “criminal aliens” accounted for 38 percent of murder convictions in five states between 2008 and 2014. In fact, the presentation offered numbers for 2005 to 2008.
That’s not the only issue. The presentation’s author, James Simpson, told us he had emailed Breitbart about Tancredo’s use of his presentation. “(Tancredo) quoted the whole thing incorrectly,” Simpson told PunditFact.
Our research found that even if Tancredo had quoted the presentation as it was given, there would still be plenty of concern about its accuracy…
Texas appears to be the only one of the five states that actually keeps track of convictions of criminal aliens. The “criminal aliens” label applies to noncitizens who have either legal or illegal immigration status. (It is incorrect to consider all of them as illegal immigrants.)…
The Texas Department of Public Safety continuously updates its tally of criminal aliens booked into local jails, tracking the charges filed and whether the person was convicted. The agency’s latest report covers June 1, 2011, to July 31, 2015. In that time, 344 noncitizens were convicted of homicide. In about the same period, Texas had 4,571 murders. (There’s a difference between calendar and fiscal years, but as of this writing, the differences balance out.) So based on counts of actual cases, criminal aliens account for 7.5 percent of all homicides in Texas. That figure is striking because it is one-fifth as large as the number Simpson gave in his presentation. Simpson said, “Illegal aliens have committed 35 percent of all murders in Texas since 2008.”
Simpson told us he had not seen the official Texas report. He had relied solely on an article for PJ Media…
The numbers from the U.S. Government Accountability Office, a widely respected source, are also imprecise — which is obvious from all of the report’s cautionary notes…
The researchers detailed a host of caveats: At the state level, it’s possible that some people are counted twice if, for example, they are first kept at a county jail and are then transferred to a state prison. And the margin of error for the overall tally of homicides, as well as other crimes, was +/- 20 percent…
Simpson’s total of murders is about 7,085, and our estimate was much lower at 5,300-5,400. Further, in Florida, he reported three times as many killers as our estimate, and his percentage of all homicides due to criminal immigrants in Texas was about double the official number (albeit for a different time period)…
When we asked Simpson about his figures, he said after several months of writing to the GAO, he got the actual raw numbers…
And Simpson told us “the whole thing is difficult to understand frankly, and they couldn’t explain it very well over the phone either. I may have to go back to them for clarification.”…
The bottom line is this: Even the man who generated the numbers, which Tancredo then misquoted, expresses uncertainty about their precision…Our ruling…We rate the claim False.