So this year’s version of “skewed” for you is that *all *the undecideds are going to go for *your *guy? And that any trends the other way should be dismissed?
Care to put any of that in your Predictions thread, or will you admit you’re just graveyard-whistling again?
One poll showing her short of a majority and 12 points ahead of her average is not an indication that she’s near a majority yet. When she gets to a majority, then you can start speculating on historic sweeps. Just as when Gary Johnson gets to 15%, I can start speculating on whether he beats Ross Perot’s 1992 performance.
this sounds like the kind of argument that GOPe types had all thru the primaries: “Trump isn’t getting a majority” as if that meant anything; a win is a win.
Also, if a candidate with a plurality is spun “to not have a majority,” then neither did anyone else. If you wanna say “it means most people aren’t voting for her,” then also “most people aren’t voting for” Trump or Johnson. Does that mean no one won the GOP primary or no one will have won the national GE vote?
Also, even two way polls often have results in which no one has 50%. Remember, that includes undecideds, who if they’re omitted, which is in effect what happens on election day as formerly undecided ones who do decide vote, then they drop out of the denominator as everyone’s percentage increases.
And a win is a win.
PS: also, if you look http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0 you’ll see that the 2 way question is posed, and Clinton is winning 54-36 there.
Certainly. Elvis was speculating on a 50-state sweep, which won’t happen unless Clinton wins a majority. Historically, she’d actually need at least 55% to have a shot. Reagan got 58% to win 49 states, and Nixon got 60% to win 49. If the race becomes a laugher, Nate Silver might amuse himself figuring out what Clinton would have to do for a sweep, but even with a 12-point lead, with her sitting at 49%, she’s still going to lose at least 10 states, possibly 15.
Where did that sick fantasy come from? Yes, there have been some dreadful occurrences in the part of the world Your Guys destablized in the days of Bush II.
But you seem to be hoping for mass rapes in the USA.
Bridget, you are on a serious losing streak lately with your odd arguments. First, I don’t “want” anything except good policies and I’ll take them from Clinton just as soon as from anyone else. Secondly, this happened in Germany, not some far flung part of the world that you think WE ruined. The Sauds ruined the Middle East more than anyone, spreading their virulent form of Islam that USED to be practiced by a small minority and which our leaders still describe as “moderate”.
Even with a solid majority a 50 state sweep? No. A completely absolute confidence no.
Yes, it’s a Selzer poll, and they don’t come better than that, but it is still one poll at one point in time, a long way from the election.
The Iraq War initial invasion happened. Both D and R pols were on board, and several other countries with us to. Get over it. Islamic terrorists and Islamist worldviews are still to be held accountable.
Dseid, without doing major calculations, what kind of margin would you expect to be necessary to win all 50 states?
I would think 60% would get her close. She could still drop a few states at 60%, like Alabama and Utah, but they would be competitive and under the right circumstances could all go her way if she’s running up a 20 point margin in the popular vote.
If Trump continues to self destruct, and Gary Johnson (or others, including Hillary) gets a big chunk of his support, then Hillary could win most (and maybe all) states without a huge majority of the popular vote.
I don’t think this is very likely, but it’s possible. I think a 2008-sized (or even better) big win is more likely, barring an indictment (which is a huge wrench, but I think a very unlikely wrench, in the works), but she still probably won’t win the reddest of the red states.
remember, Woodrow Wilson won 40 states with a 41.8-27.4-23.2 result. Vermont and Utah were pretty close.
The potential for a big win is certainly there. But could Mississippi actually turn blue? Only if there are enough sane Republicans there that would cast a protest vote for Johnson. In my opinion Utah is the reddest state the Hillary could win, due to Mormon distaste for the religious bigotry espoused by Trump. The Trump campaign seems to be taking on water right now. The post-terrorist bump that Republicans were hoping for may not come to pass as Trump seems to have failed the test of how he would respond to a crisis. This was some world class petulance shown there, Donald. Sure, the brain dead Trumpian base will stay with him, but he is insisting on playing to the fears of the Republican base rather than try to seem presidential. Trump could be looking at Dukakis-like numbers here, and it couldn’t happen to a better person.
Majorities are overrated. Bill Clinton never needed one.
I think the three traditionally red states most likely to flip this time are Arizona, Georgia, and Utah. I think those three are possible if Trump continues on his current path. I doubt any of the other traditionally red states will flip. If Clinton gets those there will probably be a major fight within the Republican ranks.
I think Mitt Romney has made it his personal crusade to deliver Utah to Hillary.
And if he accomplishes that, I bet Mitt could have a bright future in the Clinton administration, if he wants it. Plum ambassadorship? Cabinet position?
Bolding mine.
Secretary of Health and Human Services?
Unlikely. She wouldn’t put an anti-abortion person there. I rather doubt he’d be interested in a cabinet position. Ambassador to a plum country, perhaps. Really, I think he’d prefer to be active in his church.
Jesus, calm down. Hillary’s map will look like Obama’s 2012 map. She’s not flipping any southern red states like AZ or GA or any of that bullshit, unless Trump walks out on the stage at the RNC naked.
I just heard that Trump plans to walk onstage naked at the Republican convention. Maybe its just an internet thing, nobody knows how these things get started.
Oh God suppose his pubic hair was as disgusting as the hair on his head. I can just imagine it combed and lacquered with blonde-orange dye.