I assume that includes undecided voters. Anyone who actually turns up on Election Day is by definition decided. Unless Johnson, Stein, and those that are even more unknown pull in 32%, the actual vote won’t be 39 to 29. I doubt Johnson and Stein and the rest of the field will get 32%.
excellent point. Even in two way polls, the numbers rarely add up to 100, and rarely these days are candidates over 50% in national head to head polls, even in the 2012 and 2008 elections.
Love the patented NYT dry archness here:
This guy quite pathetically styles himself as a kindred spirit to Drumpf, so naturally his source is that he pulled it out of his ass like Drumpf does. Or maybe he “read it on the Internet”. :dubious:
Obviously it won’t turn out that way, but if we assume people are undecided because they don’t like either candidate, then there’s nothing inherently wrong with those voters voting third party. Given the almost universal name recognition of both candidates, it’s very unlikely that any of those 32% actually want to vote for either of them. And as long as Clinton maintains a 10 point lead, there’s no harm in that 32% going for Johnson or Stein. Would actually do a lot of good. Democrats get their President and progressives(as well as Never Trump conservatives) get to send a very loud message.
Interesting things buried in the crosstabs of polls. Today’s Monmouth for example …
Clinton-Trump RVs being Clinton +7 and +8 among LVs, with Johnson and Stein as option moving to Clinton +6 and +7 RV and LV respectively … all well and good. But in the tabs one sees that they pooled some data from “swing states” (defined by being within 7% in 2012 so CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) and not only is it Clinton +8 in the two-way among RVs but 50% of those swing state RVs say it is “very important” to make sure that Donald Trump does NOT get elected president. Oh Clinton is disliked by lots too, but it is a relatively mild 38% of swing state RVs who say that “very important” about her. … Wow.
But then today’s state polls by Qunnipiac show some swing states as more competitive than the national numbers would suggest. Figure national numbers are converging on Clinton +6. In 2012 Ohio was the national number -0.5 Obama, PA was national number +2.5 Obama, FL national number -2. FL is more Clintonward at even with current national instead of -2 (looking at both third parties included as options) -3 off the national number instead of +2.5, and OH is -4 instead of -0.5
:smack::smack::smack:
