One potential bright spot is that I don’t really get a pro-Putin vibe from DeSantis. Although I may have just not looked hard enough. And autocrats love other autocrats, so maybe it’s just a matter of time…
Damn, I think I just talked myself out of the potential bright spot.
Putin has had a lot on his plate recently and probably hasn’t found the time to get around to updating his bribe/Kompromat list.
I still disagree with the idea that a “smart Trump” would be more dangerous than Trump. I think that’s missing Trump’s appeal. The chaos and craziness is the appeal. A “smart Trump” wouldn’t get those voters that only came out for Trump, since they necessarily wouldn’t be as unhinged.
But it’s just a feeling. We’ll find out.
But part of being a “smart trump” would be knowing how to pretend to be unhinged, without letting that be your actual personality. “Accidentally” say a few crazy things to appeal to the bigots and idiots, and they won’t even notice whatever else you’ve got going on.
Seriously. TFG has a “what have you done for me lately” problem with those voters. He’s all whine and no cheese. DeSantis sent those immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard, so he has that to crow about, at least.
Based on who the Democrats have chosen to run. this is probably true. Are there any Democrats on the national stage that could beat Trump? Probably not Harris, AOC, Warren or Newsome. But what about Hochul or Whitmer? Out of the Senate there is Baldwin, Booker, Brown, Hickenlooper, Warnock, et al. Can any of these work over the next 2 years to ne presidential? Or does it even matter if Biden runs again? And if so, are we really voting for his VP?
Moderating:
This particular thread is to discuss the specific match-up of Trump v. DeSantis as the Republican nominee. Here’s another thread that’s more broad, including discussion of potential Democratic nominees. Thanks.
My fault, completely misread what iindyiii wrote.
I don’t think DeSantis could pull that off. Not sure if anyone can. Trump’s shittiness is as authentic as it gets; I’m not sure if anyone can replicate it. What I’m saying is that no one is, and no one can pretend to be, the kind of pure, distilled, authentic asshole that Trump is. But we’ll see.
The Martha’s Vineyard stunt kind of paid off for him. Equal parts bigoted, stupid, expensive, and short-sighted, that hurt everyone involved, including himself. If that doesn’t at least pass as gen-u-ine crazy, I don’t know what would.
Trump would have bragged about it for days afterwords. He would have made up crimes they didn’t commit. He would have declared he saved the country from a terrorist attack. He would have been way, way more bonkers. And it would have been genuine, unlike DeSantis’s calculated pretend-nuttiness.
Trump thinks that DeSantis wouldn’t like it if he made the base angry.
Well, doesn’t THAT sound like a mafia-style threat?
I saw an acquaintance online say he believes the results of this midterm are proof DeSantis will get the Republican nom in 2024 but I’m not convinced. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump run as an independent if Republicans dare to put anyone else forward, out of pure spite and anger at having yet another election “stolen” from him. That threat, and the inevitable splitting of Republican votes guaranteeing a Democratic victory, makes Republicans falling in line behind him all but inevitable.
I agree the Republicans would not tolerate a potential split vote like that. But DeSantis has some momentum already. He’s not saying anything at this point, but when he is asked you can tell he’s blushing. Maybe he’s waiting to see what comes of all TFG’s legal troubles, or for TFG to implode, or for TFG to make some more petulant insults only to see right-wing press come to DeSantis’ defense, but I dunno. We’ll see where the fundraising comes from for each of them - that will start to tell the tale.
I think just about everyone by now believes he’s capable of this level of childish petulance. So let’s game this out. Say, Trump announces his candidacy on November 15, 2022. By the end of the year the DOJ indicts Trump on several charges related to stealing government documents and subsequent obstruction. A criminal trial goes forward, and Team Trump manages to delay delay delay such that a jury doesn’t render a verdict until late 2023. Then Trump appeals to the Supreme Court…
The question is, at what strategic point should DeSantis announce his candidacy? Should he do it before or after charges are filed? If a conviction ultimately results, would the GOP seriously allow TFG to drag everything down ballot along with Trump when they’ve got a reasonably viable Trump alternative available?
DeSantis should know at this point he has all the power and has TFG by the short-and-curlys, without having to say or do anything regarding the 2024 election, at this point. He should just sit back and let TFG suck all the air out of the room - every headline about TFG, good or bad, just cements DeSantis’ nomination a little more. Only the frothing TFG base is going to remain loyal - and I suspect most everyone else who is a Conservative wants to move-on.
The conservatives aren’t an issue-- They’re all already voting Democrat. Who knows what motivates the current Republicans, but it’s not conservatism.
I don’t think Trump has the competence to organize an independent bid — each state has its own filing requirements and deadlines and other hoops to jump through. I doubt he’d be able to pull it off.
I think the nomination is still Trump’s to lose. Maybe even from prison (or from trial). No matter what, he will have the power to absolutely sink a different Republican nominee – if Trump says “don’t vote for backstabbing DeSantis, just stay home”, in the general election, millions of Trump-lovers will stay home.
This is the bargain Republicans made when they nominated Trump. That forever they’re handing over the power to sink Republican presidential nominees as long as Trump lives. That’s not really a different bargain than, say, the Democrats made with Obama (being that Obama is an extremely popular Democrat with Democratic voters)… but Obama would never do that. Trump would, and I bet most Republicans in power knew this in 2016, and did it anyway.