Speaker McFly and the rest of the Congressional conjugal visitors fly to NYC to show support for a traitorous rapist and have the gall to express outrage at the impropriety of the judge’s daughter supposedly making money off the trial somehow.
Yeah I think he’s going to go out of his way to be impartial. He won’t give him 4 years or make the sentences run consecutively as that risks resentencing on appeal. But I can’t see any evidence he would give a non-custodial sentence.
There’s absolutely zero chance he serves time for the hush money case if convicted. Maybe for the other two, but the justice system is going to make sure neither of those cases go forward before the election and he’s favored so he probably won’t pay for those either.
On what do you base this ridiculously over-confident assertion?
Having a memory longer than a goldfish.
On what evidence are you basing that certainty ?
So…nothing.
First time non violent offenders rarely get jail time for that crime. Plus the optics. I’d be the happiest person on the planet to be wrong, but i guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Are you reading the experts’ posts in this very thread?
What posts specifically are by legal experts making the case for jail time?
The Brennan Center found 10% of similar cases ended in jail time and I think the circumstances surrounding this lean significantly towards the lower rather than higher side of sentencing. How Could Trump’s New York Hush Money Trial End?.
We still need to get past that yuge “if” in the thread title.
When it happens I’ll believe it.
He’s won it, in my opinion. (Dammit)
So that means that there’s not no chance, right? 10% is still a chance.
I have argued that circumstances suggest he’s less likely than normal. But then you’ll argue “5% is still a chance!” or “2% is still a chance!”
Sure, you got me. But surely you’ve heard of hyperbole?
So the actual link is paywalled so I can see it, but as far as I can tell this number includes cases where the defendant plead guilty in exchange for deal, which are far more likely to have a non-custodial sentence. The majority of similar cases where the defendant pleads not guilty and goes to trial result in custodial sentences.
Give a cite for that please.
Like heck! (just kidding)
Yeah. What really galls me about the whole thing, I mean besides the fact he committed these and other crimes, is that the judge might take into consideration the possibility of rioting if he hands down a custodial sentence. Let’s hope the public safety folks in New York and elsewhere are fully prepared for such rioting and the judge bases his decision on the facts.
If you’re talking about the current trial, that’s not the charge, is it? This is a state of NY trial for falsifying business records and related charges, incurred while trying to whitewash the hush money. The OP mentioned election interference, equally wrongly. You can read about the charges here.
So the analysis is paywalled as I said:
But he does say this so I am confident in saying that analysis includes plea deal as we well as jury trial guilty verdicts, and plea deals receive much lighter sentences (and account for majority of cases)
For instance, Richard Luthmann was accused of attempting to deceive voters — in his case, impersonating New York political figures on social media in an attempt to influence campaigns. He pleaded guilty to three counts of falsifying business records in the first degree (as well as to other charges). He received a sentence of incarceration on the felony falsification counts