Nope completely correctly… Technically calling it a “hush money” case is wrong. it’s absolutely an election interference case. The secondary crime that is necessary for this to be a felony is fraudulently influencing the 2016 election.
But that said the other cases are a sidetrack to this thread (but he will absolutely get a custodial sentence if he’s convicted in any of those)
That’s not the point of this thread, though, so it’s kind of a hijack/threadshit. We already have threads for discussing his chances of conviction.
Since this thread started from a post that I made, I figure I should chime in. I haven’t read every post in the thread.
I have a good friend who was an assistant district attorney in Manhattan for many years, and has since done lots of defense work. He states confidently that an 80 year-old first-time non-violent offender won’t see jail time for a felony like this one.
For all you know, I could be a dog that’s lying through his muzzle, of course. I don’t consider my anecdote a cite. I’m just relaying what he told me last weekend, and I respect his judgement.
Now, the other crimes that Trump is accused of are much more serious, so if they ever end up going to trial, he could see jail time for those if he’s found guilty. But it exceedingly unlikely (according to my friend) that he would do time for the Stormy Daniels cover up.
The Florida case will never see the light of day - Aileen Cannon will see to that. So, it’s really only the DC and Georgia cases. It’s possible that the Georgia one is fatally harmed by Fani Willis’s ridiculous lapse in judgement, so maybe just DC?
So I have no idea what information your friend has but I suspect what he means is 80 year-old first-time non-violent offenders would almost certainly be offered a plea deal where they don’t see jail time, which is true.
And most people will take the deal, because of they don’t and are tried and found guilty of a felony then they will get jail time, first time offender or not.
No, he knows that Trump didn’t take any plea. What he means is that 80-year-old first-time non-violent offenders wouldn’t normally see jail time for a crime like this.
What he said to me was, “don’t get your hopes up, there’s no way Trump will see jail time for this. No elderly first-time offender would see jail time for a non-violent crime like this” or something pretty close to that.
The only information he has is many years of experience in the Manhattan DAs office working for Morgenthau, and then some criminal defense work after that. He doesn’t know the ADAs working this specific case.
Merchan has had more than one chance to incarcerate Trump for violating the gag order and he has declined to do so. I understand why he hasn’t jailed Trump and more-or-less agree with his (presumed) reasons.
But knowing that, and knowing that if found guilty there’s no requirement Trump get a custodial sentence, leads me to believe he won’t get one.
I have 50 quatloos on 6 months house arrest in New York. Which Trump will quickly ignore and dare anyone to do anything about it.
Isn’t the frostbite he suffered punishment enough?
I don’t care if he doesn’t serve a day in prison, I just want him to be a convicted felon. If his punishment is nothing more than having to walk barefoot in the dark in a long hallway strewn with Legos, that would be fine.
I think that might qualify as cruel and unusual.
But once the threat of incarceration was made real by the judge in the courtroom, Trump actually started obeying the order.
Unless his speaking through surrogates somehow gets him in hot water, I think Trump got as close to that line as he feels confident about, and then stepped back. Which is a shame, because a few hours or a night in lockup would be just the thing for such a disrespectful jerk like Trump.
If he does, it won’t be a prison like Sing Sing. It will be a minimum security facility for privileged, white collar criminals, which is way less than what he deserves.
If he’s sentenced to less than a year, he’ll be at Rikers, otherwise some other state facility.
I don’t think claim stands up. Yeah he could have sent him straight to jail but that would not be a reasonable expectation. Generally the way these things work is:
Trump has gone through those like any other defendant showing contempt (and is currently behaving himself at step 2 as he doesn’t like the sound of that last step). You can’t say he has been particularly shown favoritism in this, certainly not enough to say Judge Merchan is planning on giving him a super light non-custodial sentence.
Again this is one of those claims that doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. There is no such thing as a “cushy” white collar prison in the US, the minimum security prisons often described that way are federal not state prisons and aren’t that cushy:
As others have pointed out of he will likely end up at somewhere like Rikers, which is not cushy
Yeah, Rikers is definitely not cushy. I got my answer from my friend, and he added, “But he’s not going to jail” for what it’s worth.
Thank you for the link. Clicking through it leads to an analysis by Norman L. Eisen, author of “Trying Trump: A Guide to His First Election Interference Criminal Trial.” He penned an April 14, 2024 Oped piece for the NYT. Gifted article:
His take, based on analysis of past cases:
What this all suggests is that a term of imprisonment for Mr. Trump, while far from certain for a former president, is not off the table. If he receives a sentence of incarceration, perhaps the likeliest term is six months, although he could face up to four years, particularly if Mr. Trump chooses to testify, as he said he intends to do, and the judge believes he lied on the stand. Probation is also available, as are more flexible approaches like a sentence of spending every weekend in jail for a year.
We will probably know what the judge will do within 30 to 60 days of the end of the trial, which could run into mid-June. If there is a conviction, that would mean a late summer or early fall sentencing.
Justice Merchan would have to wrestle in the middle of an election year with the potential impact of sentencing a former president and current candidate.
I was unaware of this wrinkle, emphasis added:
If Mr. Trump wins the presidential election, he can’t pardon himself because it is a state case. He will be likely to order the Justice Department to challenge his sentence, and department opinions have concluded that a sitting president could not be imprisoned, since that would prevent the president from fulfilling the constitutional duties of the office. The courts have never had to address the question, but they could well agree with the Justice Department.
I personally hope that Mr. Trump’s sentence is firmly grounded in law.
So that is the oft quoted opinion that says a sitting president should not be federally indicted or prosecuted (it was the reason Mueller didn’t recommend charging the POTUS with obstruction of justice IIRC). But I don’t seen anything in that says a president that has been found guilty of a state felony would not be able to serve out his sentence (though TBH I’ve not read the whole thing)
6 months with good behavior (can Trump behave?). He might be out in time to attend Biden’s second inauguration. 
I am one of the people the OP is talking about who doesn’t believe Trump will spend a day in jail, even if convicted of all of these felony counts in NY. The reason is simple: Trump has gotten away with things over and over and over and over again with minimal consequences, and I think he’s going to do it again.
Like it or not, he is often (not always) being treated differently from other defendants in his various cases. There are a variety of different reasons for this, including one corrupt/incompetent judge (Cannon). But the biggest reason is that he’s the former President of the United States and the courts are walking on eggshells around this fact. Take, for example, the January 6 election interference case. He’s been allowed to appeal that case to two higher courts, including SCOTUS, before the case even goes to trial, never mind a verdict. How many defendants get to do that?
Similarly, how many defendants get to repeatedly and publicly disparage judges, district attorneys, and their families in the harshest terms with little consequence? Sure, he’s had to pay some tiny fines, but those fines are like being fined a penny to a normal person. Any non-Trump individual who tried that shit would have seen a jail cell, even if just for a day. But Judge Merchan has said, on the record and in court, that he doesn’t want to do that. From the NY Times:
The judge said that he understood “the magnitude of such a decision” and that jailing Mr. Trump would be a last resort. He noted: “You are the former president of the United States, and possibly the next president as well.”
A normal defendant would not get that kind of deference. The same will be true of his sentence, if he is convicted. Because of his status and the explosiveness of jailing a former president/current candidate, as well as the non-violent nature of the charges, the court will go easy on him.
Can I prove that? No. Am I a lawyer? No. Could I be utterly wrong about that? Yes. But I still think it’s the most likely outcome, and I believe those folks like the OP who think he will be sentenced like any normal convicted felon are whistling past the graveyard.