He has literally never been in the position he is in now.
Yes, and?
The same could be said during his first impeachment. What happened there?
The same could be said when the Access Hollywood tape came out. What happened there?
I hope to the gods I am wrong, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
He has escaped consequences numerous times, and not escaped consequences numerous other times.
Unless I am imagining the millions of dollars that he owes and how crippled his finances are.
He has also presided over many failed businesses and has suffered for it.
Don’t fall into the MAGA trap. Trump is a massive loser. He is nowhere near as successful or wealthy as he pretends to be. He has created an illusion of being untouchable but he is anything but. You are letting yourself be hoodwinked by him just as much as his followers have been. Don’t fall for it.
He is being treated a little bit differently not so differently you can say you don’t expect expect him to see inside of a prison cell if he’s found guilty at a jury trial of several dozen felonies. Something you wouldn’t say about any other defendant.
To go over those claims one by one;
- Starting with Cannon case. True, this is the one case where you can claim he is being treated radically differently. But even there has he got off? Has Cannon found a technicality to dismiss the case? No. All that’s happened is the case has been delayed, likely to well into the next presidential term. But even in this case, with a clearly biased judge, he’ll still likely end up in prison for a long time (so long as he doesn’t get elected POTUS).
- Then there’s SCOTUS, again clearly some special treatment but again are they gonna find for him? Almost certainly not (none of the commentators believe that’s a likely option). Again all he’s got (by appointing the judges ruling on his case) is a delay, possibly (but not definitely) past the election. Seeing as they’ve not ruled for him in that case why would they rule for him in this case?
- As I point out above, whatever the judge said, those contempt charges were dealt with as anyone else would be. First a warning, then a fine, and then (if he does it again) jail. As with most defendants, the first two steps have so far been sufficient to get him to stop. Nothing about that process gives any suggestion Judge Merchan is suddenly going to about face and give a super lenient sentence if he’s convicted.
I do feel like with Judge Merchan, if Trump doesn’t get sentenced to serve time after his conviction, it won’t be because he’s a former POTUS and is running to be elected again. It will be because of some of the other mitigating circumstances that have been pointed out; his age, the non-violent nature of the crime, the fact that he hasn’t been convicted before. (I even pointed those out.) I think that’s why it’s not certain he’d actually be incarcerated.
And he’s facing dozens of felonies and a (likely) guilty verdict that’s what.
All those other things relied on the GOP having a spine, the media not being crap, the MAGAts showing a shred of moral discernment, etc. Etc. none of which is a good thing to rely on.
Nothing that has happened up to now gives any indication that he will likely get away with this. Yeah he could get off, he could get a not guilty verdict, he could win his appeal, he could get probation, but none of those things are likely. The GOP and the MAGAts and the media will do their thing, but it won’t make it any more likely
I’m not falling for anything, and I agree with you that he is a massive loser who has failed at many, many things. But right now he is being coddled by a system that was not built to handle the wanton disregard for the rule of law of a current/former president.
griffin1977 keeps asking for evidence from those of us who think Trump will skate as to why we think he will be treated differently from other convicted felons (again, assuming he is convicted). I’ve provided examples of how he is being treated differently already and why I think he will be treated differently again. It’s decidely NOT because he’s come kind of mastermind - it’s because our system is not built to punish him due to his (infuriating) status as ex-president and current GOP front-runner.
There is definitely some truth to that.
How the decision will read and the underlying factors behind it overlap, but are not necessarily the same thing. Judge Merchan will have to consider:
a) whether he wants to pull the trigger on a former President and current Presidential candidate (implicit mitigating factor), and
b) whether he wants to enable Trump’s massive and very public disrespect for the law and by extension the rule of law (implicit aggravating factor).
If Trump is found guilty and given probation, what are the range of requirements the judge could impose? From a NY lawfirm on the internet:
While on probation in NY, you must comply with rules like:
Regularly meeting with a probation officer
Maintaining employment
Avoiding re-arrest
Staying within geographic limits
Completing counseling or treatment programs
Paying fines, fees, and restitution
Obeying curfews or travel restrictions
Submitting to drug/alcohol testing
from another website:
Depending on your original offense, these conditions could include:
Finding employment
No contact with known criminals
Staying away from high-crime areas
Performing community service
Keeping a curfew
Paying restitution to your victims
Passing drug tests
Attending substance abuse counseling
I predict, “No contact with known criminals”, will not be a requirement.
If Trump ever goes to actual jail for more than a night or two, I will eat all of the grass in my front yard while making lawnmower sounds. Let me know when that time comes.
If convicted, off to jail he goes—my prediction, supported by decades of infallibility (no need to check). But because I enjoy your posts, I will not hold you to that whole lawnmower thing.
I’d class it more as a criminal justice system that’s woefully incapable of dealing with white collar crime.
Even just simple things like setting fines as a function of net worth rather than as hard dollar amounts would be simple and completely fair. We rarely do that.
Naw, that’s okay, we’ll let you outsource it to Goats R Us.
My belief is that Trump will avoid incarceration because he’ll be too mentally and/or physically deteriorated to be imprisoned by the time rolls around for him to report to Rikers.
I was going to add “even if he has to fake it” but I doubt his ego would allow him to do that.
I humbly apologize, Rocker!
If he’s found guilty (80% chance IMO; 20% mistrial; 0% not guilty), then Merchan is going to send him to prison. I think the sentence will be a few months so that Mercan can’t be accused of making it completely impossible for Trump to campaign or do what someone does when they win or lose a presidential election (in this case, lose… though in another thread I argue that he won’t be the nominee at all, which I still think is true).
Here is why Merchan will give him a few months in the clink as opposed to mere probation, house arrest, etc.:
- First, a fine means nothing to Trump, though I think Merchan will apply the maximum possible fine as well.
- Trump has shown a flagrant disregard for the law his whole life and has also disobeyed the gag order in this case, so it is reasonable to assume that he would disregard or violate any terms of probation or house arrest. Trump is not a normal “80-something first offender,” so the claim that that is why he will avoid incarceration will not apply.
- Merchan, like any reasonable human being, will have a strong motivation to show Trump and everyone else that a former president is not above the law and and that a scumbag like Trump can’t get away with so much outrageous shit forever.
- Trump is completely unrepentant, which tends to result in more severe sentences.
- Trump has been a dick personally to Merchan, his family, and others involved in the case. He has misbehaved in the courtroom.There is an interest in punishing this behavior as well and deterring others from engaging in it. That is one reason why cops will definitely write you a ticket if you are an asshole and might not if you are polite: it helps deter such behavior and thereby make life easier for their fellow cops (and this is not even considering that people want revenge when they are personally pissed off; I am assuming that Merchan is above that, but if he isn’t, then all the more reason for him to incarcerate Trump).
Thus, if convicted, Trump is 100% spending time in prison.
If he loses all appeals, and the prison doors beckon, he’ll abscond. To where, who knows. MAGAts will say he had no choice and they’ll fight it until he dies. For a while there’ll be a steady stream of visitors, but that’ll peter out as he becomes more and more obviously vegetative.
He’ll have to surrender his passport(s) if convicted. Where could he go? Besides Russia.
I suppose one possibility is that the judge could impose a term of incarceration, but then “suspend” the sentence, conditioned on completing probation. (I don’t know if this is an option under New York law).
Meaning, if he fucks up (gets a “vop” or violation of probation), he goes to jail.
And it also means that he’s under the supervision of some probation officer who expects him to show up monthly, and get pre-approval for any trips he makes out of state. Probation usually also imposes other conditions related to the crime, so he may have to provide some sort of disclosure of his bank accounts.
In truth, as I think about the logistics of probation, it’s probably simpler and more manageable to just put him in jail.
I mean, if you think this judge is under pressure and likely harassment, can you imagine what wound befall a probation officer who was assigned the former president. That person won’t have the prestige or power of a judge, but they will be a victim of brutal harassment.
Merchan might want to avoid the inevitable hassle (and certain litigation to follow) that probation entails.
Let’s game it out a little, hopefully with the help of some of our legal eagles. Let’s assume that Trump is convicted of these crimes. What happens right after the jury says “Guilty”? Is Trump remanded to jail immediately? No, he’s not, because he’s not in pre-trial custody. He will be released under his own recognizance until sentencing. Perhaps he will be required to relinquish his passport. Let’s stop there. Does anyone disagree with any of that? Why?
Next step: does anyone know how long between verdict and sentencing? I don’t but I assume it will be at least a few weeks. In the interim, Trump assuredly appeals the verdict. Does anyone disagree that that will happen? Does anyone doubt that the appeals court will take it up? Of course they will.
Next step: we get to sentencing and Merchan sentences Trump to, say, 6 months in jail. I’ve heard that as a reasonable guess from more than one poster here. Do the bailiffs then march him off to a cell? I say absolutely not. I predict that Merchan stays his order until the appeals process plays out (much like Judge Chutkan did in the Jan 6 case). Does anyone disagree with this step? Why?
Next step: Trump is still walking around until his appeal is done. How long does that take? My guess is many months, certainly well past the election at this point. Does anyone think this will be fast-tracked to happen before the election? Why?
Next step: Let’s say his appeal is denied by the appellate judge. What happens next? He appeals to the full panel of the appeals court. Many more months go by. Let’s say the full panel denies his appeal. What happens next? He appeals to the state supreme court. Many more months go by. Let’s say they deny him. What happens next? He appeals to the Supreme Court. But wait, you say, this is a state crime, it has nothing to do with the Supreme Court! I say it doesn’t matter - his flunkies on the court will hear his emergency petition and take the case. Many more months go by…
I think you get the picture of what I suspect will happen. For those who think he will see the inside of a jail cell, where did I go wrong?
I’ve seen judges have defendants taken into custody immediately after a guilty verdict even though they were out of custody pending trial. (they’re no longer presumed innocent). I’m sure there is a usual way they handle that in NY, but I don’t know what they do. I’m just saying, it’s not a sure thing he’d stay free pending sentencing (although I expect he would be).
Probably more than a few weeks. The appeal isn’t filed until the sentence is imposed. The defendant has an absolute right to appeal, no discretion by the appellate division.
Again, I’m no expert on NY procedure, but I’d estimate the appeals would take at least a year, perhaps more.
nitpick. The NY trial courts are called “Supreme Courts” and the highest court in New York is the New York Court of Appeals.
Your basic point that Trump could remain free for years pending resolution of all appeals is valid. Not a sure thing, but certainly possible.