Why do you think that would happen?
Ex-presidents always experience a boost a year or two after leaving office. I can’t wait to see what living under Trump’s America does for Obama’s popularity by 2018. Hell, he might be the Mockingjay.
He’s already in the hole and hasn’t even been sworn in yet. Can’t think of any other President of whom that was true: http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/17/politics/trump-administration-approval-inauguration/index.html
That’s not really how it works, though. If his supporters are concentrated in sufficient districts to prevent impeachment, and if his detractors are insufficiently motivated, it’ll be trivial for him to stay in office.
I really have to wonder who voted >80%. I don’t think this is possible and in the same vein I don’t think that <20% is possible. I believe there are a couple of blocks on the extremes that are immovable. That said, I do believe he will drop to around ~30%.
As others are saying, 30% is the floor considering the base. I’m hoping it goes lower, and the press starts labeling him a “loser” which would really get under his skin. Of course, that’d be the fake press, like CNN and MSNBC and maybe even Fox.
Truman, Nixon and Bush the Lesser all eventually sank to the twenties. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump drop at least that far in a few years.
I think 60-70%. I think he’ll get things done. There’s at least 52/48 in the senate, leaning red, last thing a senator wants to do is be a part of two or three to vote against party lines and be a scapegoat. Course, if you’re a Democrat, you might want to be a part of every vote, or you’ll lose in the senate. Considering how many people are boycotting the inauguration, I have a suspicion Dems will do the same for senate votes.
It’ll be a fun two years.
Please list the “things” that Trump will get done by January 2019. Then we can go back and look at your list.
Please try to make the “things” specific and quantifiable. For example, “Make America Great Again” is neither. “Reduce the unemployment rate to below the current 4.7% for a span of at least 6 months” would be an example of the kind of prediction I’m looking for.
I would love to think it will drop below 30% by then, but I don’t think that will happen. It will slip down a bit, to the low 30s.
I said 40-50% also with the thought in mind that there will be some sort of terrorist attack on US soil in the near future that will bolster his numbers. I’m hoping it’s a very minor incident, though, which wouldn’t have too much of a positive effect on his numbers.
Most Presidents start off high and decline in approval polls. I think Trump has a lot of the negatives baked in, and the decline from his supporters will be mitigated by a “normalization” of his behavior amongst those who hate him. I anticipate he’ll hover around in the 30-40% range unless something significant happens (a major incident or a major scandal) to push him up or down.
If that hasn’t occrred by now after seeing what Trump’s promise to “drain the swamp” has amounted to, why would you think that will change? At this point, the man(-baby) could get on this Twitter account and ejactulate a tweet along the lines of, “I FOOLED the American people into voting for a fake persona of a scam artist! SAD!”, and his followers would simply respond with how brilliant Trump is and how this is just part of his campaign to make America great by making fun of the liberals who he tricked into electing him by the largest popular vote margin in history (if you throw out the tens of millions of fraudulent votes that Hillary got because of Chinese hacking on voting machines…it’s their tiny hands that let them get inside the machines and manipulate the electrons). There is literally no falsehood, however demonstrable, that they’ll refuse to believe as long as Trump stands behind it with this coterie of professional apologists going on “Fox and Friends” and interpreting his words to mean something other than they clearly mean. He’s Milo Minderbender, leaving us floating in the ocean without rations or life vests while convincing people to eat his chocolate-covered cotton. It would be pretty amazing if he didn’t literally have control over the world’s largest operational nuclear arsenal and delivery systems.
I can’t tell if you’re trying to bullshit here or you are just ignorant of the American political process but there is no mechanism to remove a sitting President from office except impeachment and conviction for “high crimes and misdemeanors”. While that phrase can be construed in any number of ways to justify removal, including getting a blowjob in the Oval Office, we can’t simple order a vote of no confidence, and the likelihood that a Republican-controlled Congress will machinate a removal just because Trump is unpopular is about as probable as Kim Jong Il being endorsed by Amnesty International as the icon of benevolent humanitarian leadership.
Stranger
While true, Trump is a pretty rich in targets with regard to impeachment, and his own party ain’t too fond of him. I think if his approval drops to the point that he’s more of a liability in office than he is being impeached, that there will be many things to choose from to qualify as “high crimes and misdemeanors”. Emoluments, Russian scandal, the inevitable sex scandal. Hell, if he’s sworn to tell the truth at any point, he seems constitutionally incapable of doing so, and that’s what they got Clinton for.
I don’t think anything will change but I can remain hopeful, right? I’m actually very dismayed by this post-truth world. I got in a discussion once with a friend on Facebook on GMOs. They make a statement that was factually incorrect (concerning the position of the World Health Organization on GMOs). I corrected it and posted the link to the WHO. Their response “I don’t care, this is just something I believe in.” My reply was “We all have belief systems don’t you want yours to be based on facts?” Reply “No.” and unfriended.
I don’t get it. I’m a research scientist (not that this is anything special especially on this board). I live my life in pursuit of factual reality. I used to think that this is how most people were. That people pursued truth. But I’ve had my bubble burst quite a bit the past couple of years and no time more so than with the election of Trump. People don’t seek truth, they seek confirmation for whatever it is they believe and reject anything outside of that.
Now, I know what some of you might be thinking. Aha BKB! What about you? Maybe you’re wrong about Trump!?! Maybe you’re just confirming your own bias!!! And I acknowledge that possibility. I think about it a lot actually. I am human and therefore have the same wetware as everybody else. I make a real effort to try to find and understand opposing points of view. As I’ve stated on this board and elsewhere I understand the people who voted for Trump based on two criteria:
1 - Single issue voters. I don’t think there is such a thing as a true single issue voters but clearly for some people some issues are overwhelmingly important. HurricaneDikta (I’m not picking on you or calling you out honest) comes to mind. The 2nd Amendment is very very very important to him/her. Right or wrong he thought Clinton would weaken or abolish the 2nd amendment so I get it. He/she doesn’t like Trump the person but the 2nd amendment overrides those concerns.
2 - A deep deep deep need for a change to the system. I get it. I even agree with it. But Trump is not that agent of change. And honestly I feel the most bad for these folks because I think they will be the most hurt by Trump.
Everything else, I don’t understand but I really do honestly try to understand the opposing POV. Maybe it is a flaw in my wetware.
Coming soon to a bumper near you: Putin Trump Russia Bumper Sticker GONE
Dilbert on the subject.
I answered 40-50%. Furthermore, I suspect at some point during his first term he will get above 50%, but I don’t claim to know when that will happen or for how long he’ll remain there.
I would be very leery of putting that on a vehicle. His supporters are crazy and many are armed.
His opponents are crazy too. Personally, I’d be leery of making any political statement on a vehicle I frequently leave unattended in public.