What is sad is that the antique conceptual and rhetorical toolkit utilized by the majority of Trump’s most vocal detractors, and the desperation with which they cling to it in the face of clear evidence of it’s obsolescence.
Nonsence. Trump is not the only people that can be subjected to analysis that you only deny because it does not fit your narrative.
In this case your very simple affirmation that what Trump is doing is “working” falls flat on its face once we look at what all the people and voters are reporting to pollsters in recent weeks. As mentioned before, it may be working among a good chunk of Republicans, but it is clearly not working for several Republicans and almost all Democrats and many independents.
Hopefully this wasn’t already posted
Trump had a rather enlightening interview with the New York Times that focused on what his foreign policy would be In Donald Trump’s Worldview, America Comes First, and Everybody Else Pays - The New York Times
His views suggest he would piss off and lose nearly every one of our allies. I’m a tad bit alarmed
What I mean by working is that he currently has, by a rough factor of ten, a higher chance of being the next president of the United States than all but one other person. And he has nearly half as much chance as her. That is according to collective wisdom, I give him a little better chance, 40-50% or slightly higher. I think people are not estimating all of the factors realistically. But like you and everyone else, I am mostly guessing at this point. Trump has destroyed a lot of the rule book, and no one knows the extent of this yet.
Just the Republican rule book, much to the chagrin of the establishment Republicans of course.
I’m a bit more optimistic of Trump not having an easy time at all in the general election, because it is clear to me that there will plenty of right wing media sources that will tell us, and many of their right wing viewers and readers, that Trump is not the sharpest tool in the shed. IMHO there will be plenty of propaganda coming from Trump and Clinton that will only work for their own groups, but the trouble for Trump is that a lot of the media that was supposed to be on his side has already told us that Trump is not the right choice for America… ever.
That’s like watching a wildfire advance from an adjacent upwind property and expecting a wooden fence to protect you.
Again, taking into account how the minorities voter’s opinions are hardening more against Trump and seeing how the recent matching polls are reacting to recent events, and the good number of right wing media sources that will tell their viewers and readers “no way” to Trump in the general election, it is clear that you are missing the fire barriers and fire proofing already applied to the upwind properties.
I haven’t seen much good evidence one way or another of how many minority voters are likely to vote for him. I predict he could get a higher percent of black voters than anyone since Reagan, and quite possibly more than Reagan. Of course that was only 14%. All Trump has to do is to flip one in ten of the black voters who voted for Obama.
What you are doing here is like a Serengeti strategy against an specific part of the argument, the problem you have is that item that is not the only factor that I’m using.
And your point here is just a guess, Trump is not getting that 14%.
All of that ignores the fact that the Lebaneses Christians and Palestinians didn’t like each other and actively fought against each other.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Phares was involved with the Sabra and Shatila massacres of Palestinian civilians.
I would. He sounds like a total Academic and a quick google shows he was getting stuff published in the early 80’s. Doesn’t look like he would have shed many tears though.
He got that once, against Carter.
Reagan v Mondale was a 9% GOP Black vote share.
GHBush v Dukakis was 11%
GHBush v W.J. Clinton 10%
Dole did pretty well against W.J. Clinton - 12% share.
GWBush v Gore 9%.
And GWBush v Kerry got up to 11%.
So roughly 9 to 12% is pretty standard with Obama’s keeping them down to 4 and 6% as stand-outs.
Fun in most recent, 3/23/16, Fox poll. Favorable/Unfavorable among Blacks for Clinton: 88 to 9. For Trump: 7 to 85. If election were held today, Clinton v Trump? 93 to 4 Clinton among Blacks polled.
Yes big MOEs and the election is a long way away. But not much evidence for his performing at Reagan v Carter level in that demographic, or even Bush v Gore level. So far looking more like McCain v Obama level.
But it could change …
What’s in it for them?
A Facebook group called Trump Patriots aims to get bikers to provide security to all future Trump events.
From their “About” page:
So, that should help settle things down.
A little over 12,000 likes at the moment, including my Trump-loving friend, the police captain. My friend is beginning to worry me.
Will they get into a shootout with the Lion’s Guard, which are also promising to protect Trump rallies?
Rumor has it that Bernie’s Brownshirts are recuiting experts in combat tai chi, and some of the most feared hacky-sack commandoes evah!
(No one seems to know how these rumors get started…)
Worked well at Altamont.
Those were Hell’s Angels. These are trump Patriots. *Totally *different.
Jobs. Trump is targeting H1N1 visas (yah I know that is the label for an orthomyxovirus, I can’t remember the name of the vias…) Played properly to “urban youth” i.e. black people, it means foreign workers get the boot out of their communities, leaving behind job openings –> real opportunities.
From here:
So I’d say there is at least a path for Trump to be effective with black voters in the general.