Online public click-polls aren’t really polls, they’re games. If it’s one of those “who won the debate?” widget things on a website, it’s not an actual poll and the results mean absolutely nothing. Real polls have scientific techniques to make sure that only one response comes from each person taking part.
I just saw the clip last night where he bragged about how he discounted the CNN poll because it was obviously rigged, but he won the more important CBS poll.
I think I saw a poll from CBS, but it was a CBS affiliate. A local CBS station did their own survey. I’m guessing that’s the poll Trump saw. He stopped reading at CBS and didn’t see that it was followed by a local city like “CBS Tampa” or something. I can’t remember which affiliate it was. Anyway, it was probably an online poll designed to generate website traffic more than to accurately gauge the public’s opinion of the debate.
You just made me realize that this is why people will think the election was rigged. If someone doesn’t understand the difference between a scientific poll and a ‘click-over-and-over’ poll, they will blindly believe whichever poll conforms to their desired outcome.
If people can game the system to make it look like one candidate is 10-20% favored and then that candidate loses, it can look like the election was rigged at first glance. If one candidate truly has a much greater amount of support in the population, then they should win. But unscientific polls aren’t accurately gauging the mood of the electorate. The bogus polls can cause people to believe their candidate has much more support than they really do. If people don’t understand that the poll results are phony, they won’t understand why their candidate lost.
Trump and supporters are really followers of Lysenkoism.
Lysenkoism and Lamarckism are favored by those who see will as the primary driving force of life, IOW people that do love authoritarians and strong men to lead, if their will tells them that the polls must be made to conform to their opinions. It will be. Science be dammed.
And so it is their attitude to scientific information that contradicts their cherished dogmas. Science will be ignored regardless if the policies they will enact will do lots of harm to America, the world and the future.
And more recently anti vaccination, an unscientific idea that was bipartisan in the past but on the fringes of the parties, has been nowadays shown to be pushed into the mainstream; thanks to Republican in power like most of the Republican candidates and even Trump.
Going back to the internet polls and seeing Trump is believing in them regardless that is setting him for failure, what he and others have done to the polls are perfect examples of Cargo cult science. Many republicans are fooling themselves.
"Memo: Fox News VP reminds staff that online debate polls ‘do not meet our editorial standards.’ "
However, it appears Fox stalwarts like Hannity and Kilmeade literally did not get the memo, as they continued to refer to the online polls as evidence Trump won the debate.
I don’t think it’s just internet polls with no good scientific or good control support that are delusional. The GOP’s own polls had them believing that Romney would win. Were their polls all that scientifically off?
The danger lies I think not only in believing bad polls, but also in believing only the subset of the good polls that show the answer you want. Isn’t this at heart what happened to the Romney campaign?
With Ailes gone, maybe some of them are dusting off the J-school textbooks.
You know, forgotten wisdom of the Ancient Wise, long suppressed by the Dark Lord, re-discovered by trembling acolytes after he’s been slain by the fearless warrior-princess, etc, etc.
I just skimmed the thread so this thought may have already been covered. …
Reasonable commentators say that Trump’s performance got relatively worse as the debate wore on. While Clinton’s got relatively better.
So somebody who watched only the first, say, 15 minutes would have a different impression of the whole affair than somebody who watched only, say, the last 15 minutes.
If I had to speculate about the folks voting in Breitbart, et al’s polls, I’d bet they didn’t last the full 2 hours or whatever it was.
Which injects another bias into the results. In addition to the massive biases mentioned by many folks above.