Any poll that uses self selection (eg online polls) to determine the people who participate is worth than useless. The only polls worth paying any attention to are random samples of the population with controls for biases.
Wait 4 days or so then check FiveThirtyEights polls plus, if Trump’s chance of winning drops then he lost, simple as that.
The CNN poll that showed Clinton 62% Trump 27% was a scientific poll. Here it is.
One weird thing about this poll is that it’s illegal to cold call people late at night so they had to get permission in advance to call the people they polled.
Does someone who knows that CNN is going to call watch the debate in the same way that some random dude does? Does this bias the sample? I’m not sure.
This same poll and polling technique was used after the first Romney Obama debate and showed Romney 67% Obama 25%. This seems about right so the poll is probably decent.
“The only poll that will matter is on a Tuesday in November.”
Amen!
And, I just feel that there is a zeitgeist afoot that is unseen by ‘polls’.
The truth used to be somewhere in between, but then one side went batshit. Now the truth is out there. Way, way out there.
Both use the scientific method of collecting data, analysing it using statistical methods, and reporting results. I’m sorry if you cannot grasp the comparison.
So you do not like, nor trust any polling.
Let me introduce you to our friend and colleague adaher, who has learned much about how to interpret polling data.
Brexit says hello.
Indeed. After months of looking at the Trump supporters what I do see is that they are relying on a lot of ignorance and bad sources of information that tells them to fall for a delusion (Internet polls with no scientific or good control support) that is not reflecting what most of the people did see. The polls have been affected by the same guys that are consuming that deluded information. Thankfully those guys are still less than half of all Americans.
You are correct. Polls are not 100% accurate 100% of the time. This is a given.
It does not therefore follow that polls are never correct, and have no value. Do you understand this basic logic?
It does also not follow that therefore the clickbait you referenced above has any validity whatsoever. Do you also follow this logic?
Nearly right after it was over, I saw an add on YouTube saying that Trump won the debate. That’s basically admitting that he doesn’t actually believe it. Or, at least, the people in charge of the ad don’t.
If people believe it, why would you need an ad?
This also leads to overconfidence and downfall, as they do not know where to put in more effort. A similar failing takes place in the Trump camp when they see the large crowds and great response to Trump saying outrageous things - they confuse the excitement of a partisan crowd with the electorate as a whole.
Oh this mistaken belief again, in reality the poll averages did a good job on predicting that the leave vote was going to win.
Of course one has to notice the lesson that can not be rejected, **the same pollsters that told us that Trump was going to win the Republican nomination also tell us that even today Clinton is the one favored to win. **
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Sure, Trump can win still, but seeing those worthless internet polls do that after you himself thought that “it was a tie” it tell us indeed how worthless those are (really, if you knew it was a tie, pointing at those internet polls was really tacky), while the most scientific ones of the debate are closer to the poll aggregates. Still the debate poll showed more of an advantage to Clinton than in the regular polls. Looking at past history, the scientific poll looks to be a very fair result, because many did also think that Obama in 2012 did not do well in the first debate and that is the same poll(ster) you are disparaging here.
it is bound to show up as an advantage to Clinton in the most serious polls later, after all this was just one debate. There are more to follow.
The Sun is in Libra now, so it’s okay to trust scientific polls, because Air Sign.
And feelings are nice.
They have a poor track record at predicting future events however.
Polls are not perfect and polls may be systematically not measuring something accurately. Maybe your “feeling” of “zeitgeist” will translate into turnout on election day, or not, we will see.
But the impact of the debate on the measures that have the best track record at predicting the outcome on that November Tuesday, the aggregated national and state polls, will be known in several days, and in the past the CNN poll has been somewhat predictive of how those have gone.
Now personally I see debate bumps as more news cycles overlays on a stable race and will see next week’s probable Clinton +4 as merely a return to the race’s long term stable point with the debate merely allowing that to happen at this point in time. But clearly it will be hard to spin a possible next week’s polling aggregates of Clinton +3, 4, or maybe even 5, as Trump “winning” the debate.
Nothing is beyond old Hamster Fists.
I hope he and his team actually think he won. I hope he thinks he did so good that he changes nothing for the next 2 debates.
I hope, I hope, I hope.
So does this asshole. Turns out numbers are a pretty good system for determining which of two things is bigger. 
You mean the 51 polls. (Either that, or the poll of 538 people where the results are announced on January 6.) As I like to say, the sixteenth word of the Pledge of Allegiance is “republic,” not “democracy.”
Here’s an idea; let the validity of these polls be decided by the people who claimed that Bernie Sanders won the first Democratic Presidential debate because, despite the “media pundits” claiming that Clinton had won, the online polls showed that Sanders had won.
This reminds me of the online poll that showed that Electronic Arts is the worst company in America. Not banks found to be cheating customers and driving people into foreclosure, not petrochemical companies poisoning the environment, not the media or telecommunications companies but a video game company that charges for extra maps on the first day and releases a game with some bugs is the worst company in the United States.
What does this prove besides “People who are really into video games spend more time on internet polls than people who are in foreclosure”?
Either brag about your fake “polls”, or protest that polls don’t mean anything. When you do one right after the other you’ve pretty much destroyed any point you are trying to make.
