Herring had already lost to Nog twice at that point (which is why that matchmaking was so perplexing), so he knew Nog wasn’t out, and he couldn’t hang with him on the ground. He was probably hoping for another head kick that would put his lights out. Smart strategy, IMO, but it didn’t pay off.
I think they should weigh in the day of the fight. Weight-cutting is stupid and dangerous imo.
You can’t just judge on one fight, though. Big Nog has had one of the most impressive careers of any heavyweight in MMA history. You probably know this since you “like him a lot”, but forgive me for touting his accomplishments a little anyway. 
In 37 career fights, Nog has never been finished despite fighting numerous top heavyweights including Pride superstars like Fedor and Crocop and former UFC champs like Barnett, Sylvia, Rodriguez, and Coleman. Other than the two losses to Fedor (who pretty much everyone agrees is the best heavyweight ever), his only losses were two split decisions – one to Dan Henderson, who he submitted in the rematch, and one to Josh Barnett, who he beat by unanimous decision in his next fight. In a world without Fedor, there would be no question that Big Nog is the greatest heavyweight MMA fighter in history.
And if Lesnar’s weakness is his sub defense – and I think it still is, with the Mir fight less than a year ago – then Nog just seems like a nightmare matchup for him. A submission specialist who no one seems to be able to finish. Unless Lesnar can be the first, that gives Nog 25 minutes to catch him with one sub. I like Nog’s chances.
I’m no expert on weight cutting, but if I understand right the weight Lesnar gained back after the weigh in would basically just be the water weight he shed in order to make weight. Short of going into the fight dehydrated, I think he had to gain that weight. I’m pretty sure that’s why they don’t do weigh-ins the same day as the fight – because otherwise, fighters determined to cut weight would basically have to fight dehydrated, which wouldn’t be safe. (Even less safe than getting into a cage with someone hoping to knock you unconscious, I mean.)
It looked like Couture would use the strategy I thought I would use against Lesnar (aside from running like a little girl), and wear him down. Let him punch himself out, then go for the kill. Looks like Randy got caught with a lucky shot and that was the end, although, a “lucky shot” from Lesnar would kill a normal man and most livestock…the guy is HUGE and STRONG. Lesnar seemed to be almost out of gas before he got the in shot that knocked down Couture. No way, no how Lesnar could go more than two rounds against a cagey fighter who stayed just out of reach.
While the punch that put down Couture didn’t look special, so I understand people using the term “lucky”, I’m just not buying it. Neither guy was having a problem finding the other. They were right there trading punches at various times. Lesnar had already landed some solid shots on Couture and Randy had done the same.
I do agree about Lesnar’s cardio not looking very good. Couture did look to have more wind in the second round. However, Couture also looked to be physically tiring just from being tied up with Lesnar for most of the fight.
Lesnar didn’t look as fast as I remember him being from back in his wrestling days. He didn’t look as cut and ripped either. I certainly don’t know the truth, but Lesnar was with WWE before their programs to cut out performance enhancing drugs. Although Lesnar didn’t look fast, there were several times that he showed that he still has some explosiveness and quickness. Once was when Couture had his ankle. I think it took less than five seconds for Lesnar to reverse that again.
Anyway, my point is that I think unless Lesnar slows more, fighters are going to have a hard time staying out of his reach.
It was “lucky” in that Randy slipped it, but underestimated Lesnar’s “go go gadget arms” and didn’t slip it quite enough, so it got him right behind the ear - one of the “lights out” buttons on the human head.
I’m gonna go ahead and make a prediction here about Lesnar. He and his type will not dominate the sport for years to come. If there is a story to MMA so far (remember, this is still a very young sport), it’s that skill ALWAYS wins out over strength. Brock is not significantly more physically imposing, nor is he a better wrestler than Mark Kerr and Mark Coleman were in their primes, and they did not dominate the sport for very long. If you believe their own numbers, he’s not as strong as Ken Shamrock was in his prime (people forget that Shamrock used to look like this, and even those pictures look to be a couple years post prime), and certainly not as strong as Tank Abbott was. Neither of them dominated the sport for years, and Ken’s fighting experience was years and years ahead of Brock’s. I saw Brock’s confidence and heart breaking in the Couture fight. His gastank was certainly nearing E. He might smash Nog for all I know (I don’t think he will but anything’s possible), he might hold the title for a year or two, but he will not change the sport like Kareem Abdul-Jabar, or be a “greatest of all time” like Muhammed Ali, Michael Jordan, Jerry Rice, Fedor Emelianenko, etc. A map to victory will soon be drawn for such a one-dimensional, inexperienced fighter. Big muscles are hungry for lots of oxygen - what’s going to do when doesn’t land that punch in round 2? And at his age, with what he has put his body through, he doesn’t have time to catch up to where the sport is at today before retirement.
