UK Snap Election: 8 June 2017

Me three. Got stuck in the voting-on-the-way-to-work crowd, but very conveniently, my name was on a roll at a table with the shortest queue, so it took very little time indeed. A fair crowd in there, but hardly crowded. I can only hope things pick up during the day - would be great to see a large turnout, locally and nationally.

Had an abnormally early meeting at work today, so I’m going to have to vote this evening. Will be interesting to see what the queues are like (usually non-existent).

I’m feeling pessimistic - think a Tory majority of 80 or so. That’s largely because I’ve been hurt before, but also because I think that Labour’s polling share a) will turn out to be slightly overestimated and b) won’t translate into votes in marginals. It’ll be nice for Labour MPs in the cities to get bigger majorities from increased turnout among the under 30s, but meaningless in parliamentary terms.

My cold and rational side agrees with you. I can still hope for a more pleasing result, though I’m pretty sure you’re right, for the reasons you listed. An American friend asked me what I thought about the election result, and while in my heart I think it’s a terrible outcome, I think a Tory majority (of unknown size) is still the most likely option.

But hey, miracles happen, right? Let’s see.

It is now time to think the unthinkable - the school holidays are coming up, deploy the National Citizen Service!

So Stephen Hawking is with Labour and Sugar is against. If I hadn’t already voted for Labour I would be on my way to do so now.

Well here it’s windy and raining. I got slightly moist casting my ballot.

Getting out of the EU doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning the ECHR. The ECHR significantly predates the EU and was a personal initiative of Churchill.

As I understand it, the Tories propose that all of the EU legislation - including the ECHR - will be imported into UK law as part of the Brexit process so that it can be later amended by UK governments.

Just voted here. Only one other person in the polling station.
My constituency has been Conservative since it was created in 1974, so my vote was probably wasted.
I’ve always been liberal, either with or without a capital L. But for the first time ever I wanted to vote Labour as Corbyn has pulled himself together and turned into a credible PM I believe. I thought May had changed, but her nasty, authoratarian side is coming to the front again.
But Labour are always 3rd here so my best bet was a tactical vote for LibDem in the vain hope that we can get rid of the smug Eleanor Laing.

I’m having trouble quantifying ‘success’ in these circs.

Maybe success - at this election - is rediscovering the socialist soul of the party. Surely there has to be a strong argument going forward that if you front this kind of manifesto with someone who has less baggage and clearer leadership skills …

Thank you, Diane Abbot.

It’s time we moved to more serious subjects! Here’s the BBC investigating dogs at polling stations. :smiley:

And possibly the Boy Scouts, Girl Guides and anyone with a Blue Peter badge.

One of the main reasons I preferred Corbyn over Kendall, Burnham and Cooper was that, while I thought he would be a terrible leader, it would force the Labour party out of the political doldrums of post-Blairite Tory-lite blandness (Miliblandness, if you will) it was stuck in, and after a period of internal turmoil the party would decide what it actually stood for (and would then put a more effective party leader in place).

I was right about the effect Corbyn would have on the party; where my theory fell short was in assuming that there were other potential leaders who would emerge from the fray with a better-defined ethos and some form of consensus on the way forward. Instead we got Owen “who?” Smith. It’s a depressing thought that the Labour ranks are apparently so bereft of movers and shakers who can actually move and shake.

What would be the parameters by which we can view success for Corbyn or May tonight?

For May, it would have to be a substantial increase in seats, I reckon - fifty or so more than 2015.

For Corbyn, sustaining Labour’s numbers would be a minimum, but if the seats slip slightly but Labours popular vote spikes considerably, would that be a mark of success?

Would we see another leadership challenge?

Oh I know that, it’s just that leaving Europe will make it *possible *to leave the ECHR. I’m still rather vainly hoping we won’t end up leaving the EU at all, and will be voting with that in mind, but if we do leave I’d hope we don’t end up keeping only the bad parts of the union.

The fact is it’s a court that is not controlled by UK legal principles, and it’s not fantasy to say that having such a thing erodes national sovereignty.

Voting soon. I have only ever voted Labour or Green before, but, in the current circumstances, a vote for Vichy Labour is a vote for the enemy and the Greens are too small to effectively lead the opposition, so the LibDems will have my vote.

Vive la résistance!

Turnout higher than expected; who knows but maybe 65-68%.

Long-ish queues outside some university polling stations … could be indicative …

Altogether now, channel Elvis: ‘to dream … the impossible dream … this is my quest …’

I popped over to 538 to see what their last word on the election was, and the answer seems to be shrug.

The polls range from Lab+3 to Con+13 but with a high level of uncertainty. The Tories could lose their majority or gain a few dozen seats and it would all be in the mix somewhere. Pretty much the only result that would really be a pollbreaker would be a dramatic increase in seats for Labour, which no one seems to think will happen.

tbh, I’m almost tempted to snatch a few hours early on and set the alarm for 5.00am-ish.

I won’t - it’ll be carnage and absorbing after the polls close trying to understand what happened - but it might be the better thing to do …

I shall do what I always do - get a good night’s sleep and react, if at all, in the morning to the basic facts of the case. The froth that comes out of people while they’re filling broadcasting time while waiting for something to happen is not going to make a ha’porth of difference.

A Dramatic Late Development:

I’d always intended to vote Labour for two reasons 1) this has historically been an SNP/Labour marginal, with the SNP taking the seat easily in 2015, and 2) I’ve known the (first-time) Labour candidate for more than 30 years, and she’s sound.

However, I had a glance at the YouGov* constituency-level analysis here

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

and it is showing that it’s likely a Tory gain, edging out the SNP, with Labour in distant third. Eeeek! So, sorry Jo, I didn’t vote for you, this time.

  • I don’t think the YouGov model is right this time, and who knows the value of the constituency sampling, but why take the risk