I imagine anybody as ambitious and dangerous as Putin was eliminated by him a long time ago.
“technically”, all they need is the sitting president of the republic of ukraine, Mr. S. asking them to “help safeguard the airspace” of his country… and they might grant him this favor between friendly countries.
that’s the nice thing about it … as he is democratically elected, it is “his” country, whilst Mr. P. has no legitimacy of being there.
So as long as it is a broad alliance (and I see 20+ EU countries, japan and a few others), there is very little to “diplomatically object” this legal figure.
That is happening already, according to this al-Jazeera article which gives a run-down of the weapons that are flowing to Ukraine from the West. For instance, Germany has changed its policy about not sending weapons to an ongoing conflict, and Sweden has sent weapons, the first time it has sent weapons to a conflict since 1939, when it sent weapons to Finland in its battles with the USSR. (I suppose the Swedish government could just say its following its own precedent, not changing policy. )
I daresay that Ceausescu thought he had done the same thing.
Here’s a nuclear scenario: Russia blows one up on their own soil, well filmed and documented, just to remind everyone who has arsenals. They tear up test treaties but international etiquette was already discarded at Ukraine’s borders.
I wonder how many “advisors” are going along with all these weapons from the NATO countries. I’m not sure exactly what SAMs are being shipped, but even if it’s just man portable like Stingers, the troops are going to need some kind of training. I’m not sure Ukraine has enough people to do the training, especially if the weapons are being spread out among civilians.
There’s also the fact that these arms are not miracle weapons. The US gave the mujahideen so many Stingers we lost count and look how long that war dragged on. What Ukraine really needs is real time intelligence of Russian troop movements, which I think they are getting, and the ability to move their own troops and weapons rapidly to counter, which I’m not sure they are able to do. Five thousand anti tank missiles do you no good if they are 200 miles away from the armored column that’s breaking thru your lines.
There is a limit to that before the Russians say fuck it and start hitting the delivery convoys and flights,.
Which would constitute an attack on a NATO member, which I don’t think is a line they’re going to want to cross.
Do they think we’ve forgotten?
yeah … that’s just like shooting yourself into your foot to show you have a gun 
thanks for linking to this report. I remember a couple of news articles about the logistics challenges at the time, and it is good to get some more details. I certainly agree that this is probably what Russia is facing, not primarily armed resistance. Though the armed resistance certainly makes the logistics more challenging. No country, as shown in the report not even the US, has the logistics to support a modern battlefield for more than a few days.
While surrounded by cops with itchy trigger fingers.
There would be several audiences. Young Ukranian soldiers that didn’t experience the Cold War would be demoralized. Young Russian soldiers might get a shot in the arm. Ukranian politicians and commanders would probably be negatively affected. And the wider world would see just how crazy Putin is.
I don’t think this will happen but it’s a scenario that escalates the conflict but falls short of an attack.
If Putin has a nuclear weapon blown up in his own territory, I am envisioning that the next thing that happens is that one of his own generals will shoot him even at the cost of his own life, damn the torpedoes.
Russia has a whole lot of territory. Most of the nukes that the Soviet Union tested, they tested on their own territory.
I have seen some speculation that Russia might indeed blast a nuke at some remote Siberian wasteland, just for the sabre-rattling of it.
I’m certainly not saying that he will, or that he should, or that any good could come of it.
Just saying that there’s a whole lot of places where they could “remind the world” of the power of a nuclear bomb, without actually hitting any territory that anyone lives in.
I think any support Russia has in China would completely evaporate if he did that.
All the better if so!
I have a nagging theory that, regarding nukes, Putin may be willing to try something new. We’ve trodden the path of Kennedy staring down Kruschchev, Reagan acting like a reckless cowboy. The script always ends with Russia backing down. That’s no good for an aspiring emperor of Eastern Europe! Change is needed!
I don’t think Putin wants even a tiny regional nuclear war, but I cannot shake this nagging suspicion that he must be wanting to nudge the Overton window just a bit. Pop off a very low-yield nuke close to the Ukraine border, maybe close to a reactor site. Create a cover story like “we didn’t use a a nuke, we used a thermobaric bunker-buster on the nuclear plant where the Nazis were hiding. Oops. No, you can’t send in observers. Is very dangerous place right now.”
Naturally, few people would believe the lie. That’s not its purpose. The purpose is to provide a pretext for enough people to say “he didn’t breach the norm, he’s says he’s still committed to the norm”, while demonstrating to the right people that he really is crazier than we thought. We don’t want to let him get away with it, but hey, it wasn’t a population center, right? We don’t want a full-blown nuclear war, right? We’d probably just pile on more sanctions. So Putin becomes the guy who actually did it and got away with it.
“Getting away with it” is Putin’s signature move. It really is to Putin’s advantage to prove he’s crazier than us, and it’s to our advantage to play along with it. That’s why I think he might believe he could get away with some low-level nuclear shenanigans.
(caveat: that’s just a thought experiment, I might be full of shit)