Plus something m
Yes: I was just being lazy: I couldn’t spell “Ossetia”. 
Sorry for malformed post.
Was going to say: something like 25% of the Russian economy depends on carbon exports. Even without the threat of a war, Putin can’t really afford the irreparable breach with the west that would come from trying to actually invade old Warsaw pact countries.
Ukraine is about flat broke and needs a massive bailout just to avoid default. Not the sort of liability the EU is willing to welcome on in.
I do believe that you are engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. Russia’s Armed Forces, while not on an even par, are very capable and much closer to home than ours. Russia’s Navy is not going to give up its warm water port and the home of the Black Sea Fleet without a fight, no way no how, it would be strategic suicide. NATO would probably win but the cost would be terrible, Ukraine’s economy would be utterly destroyed and I doubt that the World would enjoy a wounded bear, licking its wounds and looking for revenge with President for Life Putin in charge.
If we have to go to war, we go but talking is a better idea, for now.
Capt
Can someone clarify these past couple of Ukrainian presidents for me?
A few years ago, the presidency was contested by 2 guys both with long, confusing last names. One of them was the current president (now deposed) and another was a guy who was poisoned and disfigured, right? He was poisoned allegedly by those with ties to Russia because the guy he was running against was pro-Russia and he was not? Then he gets elected and is horribly corrupt and the people elect this guy, and now apparently he’s also fucked up so bad that the people had to get rid of him by force? Is that the right timeline of events?
More or less, and the poisoned guy was Viktor Yuschenko. I don’t know all the details of why he lost so much popularity while in office, except that the more I refresh my memory of the details of the events, the more I am convinced that all major Ukrainian political figures just suck.
Yeah, those elections in 2015 will now take place in 2014. Surely, history’s greatest triumph for freedom and democracy. And all it took was a gang of fascists and paid troublemakers wreaking havoc on the streets.
Yes, at last the democratically elected government has been subverted by the righteous Jew-hating fascists of democracy.
Is this even a question that’s on the table? I can’t imagine anything that would cause NATO to start shooting at Russia.
If Russian tanks roll into the Ukraine, then , well, it’s tough luck for the Ukranians. Nobody will do anything to help them, except make speeches full of hot air at the UN, and maybe pass a resolution or two.
And those speeches will be vague. They won’t even use phrases like “crossing a red line” or “all options are on the table”–after Syria and Iran, it’s meaningless.
This. NATO wouldn’t back the Ukraine militarily against Russia. No way, no how.
You know who is not talking publicly or speculating wildly about Ukraine? Putin. Cold & calculating smart bastard that he is.
I called it again. Putin has called for unannounced military exercises near the Ukraine border.
Definitely this. Anybody who thinks NATO will do anything more than squeal about a Russian invasion is dreaming. They couldn’t be bothered to do anything more than squeal when Assad gassed his own people (and remember, it was Russia who convinced Assad to give up the chemical weapons, or at least to pretend to do so). So, fighting Russia over the Ukraine is absolutely off the table.
And if the new Ukrainian government publicly calls for NATO protection? Will NATO simply say no?
No. They’ll send 12 unarmed guys in white jeeps and blue helmets and call it a peace-keeping mission.
That’s the UN, not NATO. Different organizations.
:smack:
In that case, nobody will show up at all.
Whatever Russia may do, about half the Ukrainian people, many of whom are ethnic Russians and/or Russian speaking (and who, as I understand, control the areas where most of the industry is), are going to hate the new leadership just as much as the rest hated the old. This whole thing is not about evil leaders (though it may be about incompetent ones, to some extent, who have exacerbated the pre-existing divisions for short term advantage), it is about a country with deep ethnic and social divisions, and the troubles are not by any stretch over. Division of the country might ultimately be the only way to achieve peace. In any case, it is really rather silly for Westerners to be taking sides on the basis of old cold-war prejudices.
They won’t respond at all – it will be as if they didn’t hear it.
BBC TV is reporting that Nato is warning Russia not to interfere in Ukraine.