Ukraine Prediction Thread

This thread is for posting predictions about how the situation in Ukraine will eventually wind up. Arguably this is better suited for IMHO, but I wanted to allow for the likelihood that a debate will break out. Mods may move it at the their discretion, of course.
Types of questions that should be (briefly) addressed include:

– Whither Crimea? Does it continue to be a part of Ukraine? Does it achieve greater (or total) autonomy? Annexed by Russia?

– Eastern Ukraine: same questions.

– What kind of sanctions are imposed? By whom? To what effect?

– Does Ukraine join the EU? Or NATO? Does the whole country wind up under the Russian sphere of influence?

– Is there a war, or meaningful armed conflict, between Russia and Ukraine? A Ukrainian civil war? Any foreign or international peacekeepers?

– Consequences for Putin? Any domestic instability, or loosening of his grip on power?
Time to prove how smart you are: Go.

Crimea and eastern Ukraine join Russia, the western part of Ukraine joins the EU.

Russia kicked out of G-7, assets frozen by both sides. However, Russia still sells gas to Europe- they need it and Russia has nothing else to do with it.

Bonus points- Russia says it will stop carrying non-Russians to ISS.

No war, just a split of Ukraine.

No consequences for Putin, for all intents and purposes he’s as much a dictator as Stalin.

It looks like what must unfold is a version of the former Yugoslavia, hopefully without the level of violence.

Must take the better of a decade for this to be done with a reasonably degree of finality.

It’s almost certain right now that Crimea is going to meld with Russia, whether or not the people there want it. As for the western half, I’m guessing they’ll become part of the EU after Crimea merges, but it’s not as certain. Putin taking over Crimea won’t get any response from the international community beyond raised eyebrows - most likely there will be protests in the western part that will gradually die away - but the real trouble will come if he sets his sights on the rest of the country. I don’t think he’s nearly that crazy, but Putin’s not exactly the most predictable politician out there. If all he’s looking for is Crimea, the whole transition will be pretty smooth, if disheartening. But if he gets greedy, then war is a possibility.