We can go back to debating the OP, if you like. 
raises hand
See post #99, and the discussion that followed.
I wonder what would happen if they put the issue to a vote? Does the Ukrainian people, as a whole, wish to keep the country unified, despite their differences? Might there perhaps be parts of the country (Crimea?) where a majority would indeed like to break free (either to start their own country or to join, say, Russia), even if the majority of the Ukrainians would like the country to remain intact?
If you put it up to vote and the vote is 48%/52%, what does it indicate for “Ukrainian people, as a whole”?
If we could trust the results of a vote we wouldn’t be in this pickle to begin with.
I guess it would indicate that almost as many want to break up as want to stay united?
But, yeah, “the Ukrainian people, as a whole” was a poor way of putting it. Obviously the country doesn’t speak with one voice, which is part of the issue here.
What I wanted to know - and would still like to know - is if something like 48%/52% would be a realistic result of such a vote, or if it would more likely be closer to 60%/40%, either way, or 80%/20%, or whatever.
No, it would be like with the European Union: First comes an end to war, then comes some kind of international government to make sure it stays ended, even if the international government has little or no armed force backing it up, mainly because now all the member states have a standing forum to resolve disputes in other ways and make the resolutions stick. (The League of Nations and the UN were intended to be that, but proved too loose to work; the EU is a better example, being something somewhat closer to a government in its own independent right, even if not fully sovereign like the U.S. government.)
And the EU is already having problems. Anyways, a world government is such a futuristic fantasy right now, I don’t think it’s worth hijacking this thread about it.
Probably get told to get in the back of the end of the line.
Declan
Added to that is that the Syrian naval base that the sov, the russians have leased is directly supported via that base. Putin may be forgiven for having the phrases, containment and rollback running through the back of his mind, when it comes to seeing US actions.
So Putin sees the US and Europe finally about to put the final stake into an independent Russia, with a ring of steel facing inwards instead of outwards. Only I dont think team Obama is that competent to have arranged it.
Declan
What Putin isn’t willing to accept is that no one cares about Russia any more. No one wants to invade it, or defeat it, or humiliate it. All the world wants from Russia is to buy its gas and oil, and maybe sell it some iPads in return.
Invade, no. But lots of Westerners seem awfully interested in stopping Russia from expanding its regional influence, which itself can be seen as a way to defeat it - and certainly a way to humiliate it.
In general, Russophobic sentiment in the West seems to be higher now than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Whether this is well-deserved or not is, of course, a separate question.)
Even apart from politics, people really seem to hate Russia and the Russians these days. Take the massive outpouring of gleeful Schadenfreude about “#sochiproblems.” Fifth Olympic ring doesn’t open? Ha! Ha! Ha ha ha! In your fucking face, Russia! Small issue, of course, but indicative, it seems, of a larger trend.
People care about Russia, but I don’t think many in the West are worried by Russia. I think in most cases we look at it like we looked at Chile and South Africa back in the days, from the moral high-ground of our civil rights and free elections.
So yeah, we care about Russia because we see things there that would be unacceptable here. And many want Russia to do badly because if they do well, their policies might be legitimised as a result. But seeing the country’s corruption and demographics, I think they’re less of a threat than they’ve been during the last 103 years. And they have very few real allies, so their military should not worry the West
Only when Russia seeks to expand its influence via force or by economic threats or agaisnt the will of the citizens of countries it’s tryingh to influence. It’s not Russia people are opposing - it’s Russia’s thugginsh behavior.
If Russia would just relax and act like a civilized country, it wouldn’t set itself up for humiliation.
People don’t hate Russia or the Russians - they just dislike Putin and his administration. I hope some day the Russians understand that that’s not the same thing. Putin isn’t Russia’s father or national emblem. He’s just a politician.
Wait a second? How did Putin become a major economic and military power’s leader worried about Russia being invaded and defeated simply because in this case he cuts a deal with the ‘duly elected’ President of Ukraine and because of that the President is driven out of office by violent protesters who have now nullified an election through violent means.
Was Putin wrong to make a deal with the Duly elected President of Ukraine?
Same goes for Georgia, right?
I went with my wife and her father, both doctors, in 2000 when they voted for Putin the first time. Not that it means much but I have followed Putin’s career the entire time and have some personal observations.
A main one being that Putin restored a sense of nationalistic pride that had been list following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the floundering years under the drunkard Yeltsin when the Russian people were robbed by the oligarchs and financial kingpins from within and without Russia’s borders.
In that sense Putin is a national emblem.
He’s like the Reagan of Russia, if Reagan had been able to sidestep term limits and had journalists murdered.
And if Reagan had been able to lock up Ross Perot. And some other things.
“Mr. President, lock up these fags!”
Russian troops in western area bordering Ukraine are put on alert.
Pro-Ukraine and Pro-Russia groups clash in Crimea.
While I don’t expect an invasion of Kiev, I see it becoming more likely there will be increasing calls for Putin to send troops to protect the Russian minority in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine from “terrorists” and “fascists”. More clashes between opposing groups could escalate things quickly.