So this allegedly happened…
Completely lost on me. I have zero idea of what the Villages are.
MAGA stronghold in Florida, largely populated by rich white retired people.
A very large retirement community in central Florida.
I had complete faith in Joe, but I spent the last few months saying, like a mantra, “don’t give’m ammo, don’t give’m ammo…” every time he appeared.
I read back through the thread and found what I was about to say written by someone else!
.
My kid (mid-30s) is enthused, and sent me a great comment from reddit:
Harris really didn’t want to do anything to fu¢k Biden’s campaign up so she played it safe. She learned under Biden and seems a lot more confident and prepared to take over for him now.
Think of it like a QB being drafted to an NFL team and redshirted for a couple years while they learn under the legendary HOF QB as they finish off their career. Biden, the legendary QB, is on his final season and beginning to show decline in his abilities like all great QB’s eventually do. Meanwhile, Harris has been impressing in practice and appears to be ready to take over as the starting QB next season.
To improve our odds in Wisconsin, we should start calling her Jordan Love.
Fine, so I was wrong about what the Ohio legislature did. I’m not interested in contributing to a potential hijack about that.
The point I originally made was that Harris should name her VP choice as late as possible (i.e. post Olympics) because it would generate news coverage and keep DJT out of the headlines. This would also contribute to continued enthusiasm about the ticket. August 7 is close enough to the closing ceremonies to accomplish what I was talking about. Then coverage of the convention later in the month will continue to make Trump crazy since he won’t be able to dominate the news.
See my post #330 above.
That amuses me. But oughtn’t surprise. Maybe I should link to my CS “famous people” thread.
I’m a golfer who watches golf on TV, so I remember their ads, “America’s home town!” And have many other instances of familiarity/awareness. And there was a movie about them, and they regularly feature in cultural news items.
But, as others observe, the gaps in others’ (or your own) knowledge are often surprising.
This was my reaction to this coming up on social media. What came to mind to me was picturesque English home counties hamlets. I mean thats nice but none of those villagers can vote in the US 
Whoa, that is big!
Trump losing support there is major.
Enthusiastic indeed!
I’m thinking of that village where Patrick McGoohan was trapped and every time he tried to leave a great big white beach ball pushed him back up to the land.
Is he losing support, though? Or is it just that Democrats in The Villages are now more enthusiastic about their candidate, so they’re coming out for campaign events?
Increased enthusiam (as in the thread topc) probably helps some at the margins, and I’d certainly prefer it over a feeling of resignation. But all the boat parades and rallies full of enthusiastic Trump supporters four years ago didn’t stop him from losing the popular vote by seven million…
I disagree, much as I’d like a massive switch from Trump to Harris, enthusiasm among Democrats is more likely to win the election. That was the difference between 2020 and 2016, more Trump voters actually turned up vs 2016, but enough Biden voters turned up to win it.
I don’t think we’re in serious disagreement here - I was mostly responding to the notion that a large rally in The Villages corresponded to a loss of support for Trump. I think it’s more likely that enthusiasm for Harris translates to more public shows of support, which I think will help on the margins (which can be decisive in a close election) but probably does not portend a switch of loyalties for a bloc of Trump voters.
Though I should add, The Villages is historically not monolithic, and it’s more about them being vocal and political than unanimity. I pulled their precinct voting results for 2020, and Trump came in at about 2/3:
Participation, however, was terrific at 92%.
Dave Barry mentions his visit to the Villages in one of his books.
I’ll have to disagree with that.
The characteristic of the political mood in the USA, more than anything else, is one of extreme division. Partisanship is WAY worse than it used to be.
Look at Reagan’s popular vote totals; in 1980 he won by ten points, in 1984 by 18 points. It’s just inconceivable that anyone could do that now; there is simply too much entrenchment. In 1988, Reagan’s popularity extended to George Bush 1.0, who won 53.4 percent of the vote and believe it or not, no one has matched that number since, not even Barack Obama.
There’s more than a few reasons for this, of course, but I think the main one is that the proliferation of alternative and social media allows people to live in a remarkably impermeable bubble of their choosing, wherein they live not on facts but truthiness of their choosing, to a degree that would not have been possible for a person in 1980.
(There are other reasons too, but this is the biggest.)
Harris and Trump are basically fighting over about one in every twelve or thirteen voters. Maybe, maybe one in ten. 90+ percent of the votes have basically already been cast.
What matters almost as much as vote winning is enthusiasm. Harris’ apparently slightly better numbers are, I suspect, not really that people are changing their minds, but that Democratic-minded voters are a bit likelier to get out and vote for her than they were for Joe Biden.
Depending what you mean by “lopsided” I would say this is really quite impossible. There is no realistic scenario wherein Harris wins a landslide. You cannot construct an electoral map based on any reality where that happens. Not one poll so far, held by any pollster, has shown this might happen.
It’s still early, but I haven’t seen a single USA-wide poll yet in which Harris is ahead by more than one or two points, and if that happens, Trump wins. The EV map tilts Republican; The Democratic candidate probably has to win by at least 3-4 points to win the EV.
I hope this momentum keeps up:
The campaign, which announced its latest fundraising total on Sunday, said the bulk of the donations — 66% — comes from first-time contributors in the 2024 election cycle and were made after President Joe Biden announced his exit from the race and endorsed Harris.
Over 170,000 volunteers have also signed up to help the Harris campaign with phone banking, canvassing and other get-out-the-vote efforts. Election Day is 100 days away.
So I’d say winning all or almost all the swing states plus one of the more unlikely ones (say Texas) would count as a landslide. And that’s not impossible. Its not likely but it’s a possibility.
The Reuters poll shows a 4 point gap (though with RFK etc in the mix, which is a big reason for optimism IMO.). All these polls are showing 5% ish swing from Biden, another 5% swing gets you into landslide territory. Is that super likely? No. But its definitely not impossible, you have the convention and Trump’s sentencing (not to mention 100 days of Trump being an incoherent hateful old man running against a young charismatic opponent who isn’t afraid to call him out)